By Adam Butler
www.PacHoops.com
www.PacHoops.com
News came through just hours before the deadline was to pass that Colorado’s Andre Roberson was submitting his name to the 2013 NBA Draft. This came as a surprise to some, a formality to others, and a dream come true to one. You’ll recall that the actual declaration came after a previously cancelled press conference.
And perhaps it’s fitting that the 6-foot, 7-inch, defend-anything-and-swallow-rebounds junior declared at the eleventh hour. After all, he’d just completed his second straight season of 11 points and 11 rebounds a game. Clearly he has an affinity for the number.
But don’t expect Andre’s name to be called when the 76ers make the eleventh pick Thursday night. No, the Pac’s 2013 dPOY is not lottery talent.
He’s glue talent.
As the Miami Heat and they’re dynamic ability to defend across the board changes the way basketball is approached, players with the skill set of Andre Roberson become increasingly coveted. To win in that league, as Zach Lowe explained, you need stars. And what do stars do? They create offense. The knock on Dre has long been an inability to do such but I don’t think anyone who picks him up believes they’re getting the next winner of the scoring title. He had just the 53[SUP]rd[/SUP] highest ORtg in the Pac-12 last season (99.8) – nearly nine points lower than his 2012 rating. The stars do, however, need help in doing the other important thing that stars try to do: win.
So no, offense was never going to get Roberson on to an NBA roster but it is going to get him his second NBA contract. Because he has the coveted (potential) to help stars win.
In another Lowe piece, he explains just how coveted a position the wing is. The type of player who can:
- Defend shooting guards
- Defend small forwards
- Shoot 3-pointers proficiently
Throughout the article, Lowe cites Luc Richard Mbah a Moute as an overvalued (monetarily) and underperforming (offensive) liability. For everything he brings to the table defensively, his offensive ineptitude (Career: 9.8ppg, 11.7 PER, 46% eFG) allows teams to ignore him when the Bucks have the ball; clogging the lane for the creating stars that are Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. But the point here is not to rain on Milwaukee’s Prince. No, I’m setting the stage to present the similarities and value of drafting an Andre Roberson.
Because he will ultimately be a valuable commodity throughout his career should he pop a few threes. In 2008 Mbah a Moute was a 6’6” 220lbs defender who’d just put up 9/6 for a Final Four squad. But who’d also watched his rebounding and FG% numbers decline each year from his freshman to junior years. So he struck while the iron was hot and declared. He was drafted with the 37[SUP]th[/SUP] pick and has since maintained a sound NBA career as a defender; never developing the offensive hole-plugging the Bucks coveted.
At Colorado, Roberson has unfortunately seen similar declines, though far less dramatic. But the encouraging caveat here is that he has the experience of having played a bigger offensive role. Mbah a Moute has been playing the defend/rebound role since he arrived in Westwood (Afflalo, Farmar, Shipp, Love, Collison, Westbrook) and right on to Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Roberson’s job at Colorado has included scoring duties. The offensive experience is not an unfamiliar one. Mbah a Moute broke UCLA’s top 5 in %Shots just once. Roberson missed the top four in just his freshman year. Now much of that can be attributed to the surrounding talent (see the aforementioned UCLA list); but it doesn’t change the fact that this has contributed to Roberson’s skill set. What’s more, the kid just straight up shot better, shooting 35% from distance for his Buffalo career. Do you know who did not shoot 35% from distance in the college career? Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Kawhi Leonard, Quincy Pondexter, Matt Barnes, Wesley Matthews, Gerald Henderson, and Iman Shumpert. All players cited as the next Shane Battier-types in Lowe’s previously mentioned article.
In the case of Kawhi Leonard, his college three-point field goal percentage was 25% across two seasons. In the NBA, across the same number of years: 37%.
Shooting is a skill that can be learned, taught, improved, absorbed. Conversely, the ability to defend across multiple positions as Andre Roberson has demonstrated cannot be taught. That’s an athleticism/size debate and I’ve spent much of my life trying to learn how to be athletic. I’m currently failing but every pickup team needs a 6’5” Euro-center.
Andre Roberson was a terrific collegian who compares favorably to a number of successful NBA players. For that, he’ll find his way onto an NBA bench and hopefully the right one. Roberson is not going to make a team better that is missing its star. As mentioned, he’s glue talent and could step in right away to fill some cracks with his defense and rebounding for the right team.
It will be his ability to hit that occasional three, however, that defines just how sticky Andre Roberson’s NBA career becomes.