PacHoops: CU - Illini Preview

[allbuffs]

By Adam Butler
www.PacHoops.com

First and foremost, consecutive invitations to the dance is a big deal. Some of my best friends in high
school - two very pretty girls who were obviously very cool because I think the world of them - garnered
invites to prom only during their junior year, snubbed senior year. They danced but once.
I of course went to both my junior and senior proms. However, both dates are now married. As is my
first crush. And my first real girlfriend.

Anyhow, my heartache aside, in three years with Tad the Buffs have played (at least) seven games
in March by invitation. I understand that a message board full of Tad supporters doesn’t need me
to mention that this is a budding program but I will anyways. Because without delving deep into the
analytics of it, this is an unmistakable uptick: NIT invite, NCAA auto-bid, NCAA invite. Such a progressive
line of success is unchartered in CU history. Take a moment to recognize this.

And now get to thinking about the Illini and maybe a flight to Austin, too. I hear it’s a tremendous time
and a tough city to beat.

Similarly, I hear that Illinois can be a tough one to beat. Their season has followed the proverbial
rollercoaster with peaks in beating 50% of the field’s one-seeds (@ Gonzaga and Indiana). Their lows,
however, don’t seem as low as one might think. They ran into B1G scheduling juggernauts and sustained
losing streaks to ranked opponents or soon-to-be-ranked opponents (like Wisconsin). These losses are
understandable and playing competitively (they rate 42d in KenPom which ain’t bad) bodes well in
their judgment. They get knocked for losses to Northwestern and Purdue (137 th and 64th respectively in
KenPom) and just a handful of really impressive wins over anyone not named Indiana or Gonzaga.
A resume they’ve indeed compiled, having grinded through that B1G schedule, and thus earned a 7-
seed. Kudos Illinois.

But this time of year, overly focusing on the opposition, can become exhausting and counterproductive.
Because this becomes about keeping Andre Roberson hot and locking people down. Winning is about
ensuring Spencer Dinwiddie is aggressively going to the basket and Xavier Johnson plays with tenacious
energy. That the Buffalo defense feeds its offense and forces a B1G team to get a touch uncomfortable
in transition.

The season is long and at this point we know what teams do well and what they do poorly. Colorado
defends well and defends the three pretty well while allowing a lot of threes. Illinois jacks those things
up, taking 41.2% of their shots from distance while connecting on just 32.3% of them. The Buffs do a
pretty decent job on the offensive glass (33.9% OR%). The Illini yield just about that very percentage.
Ultimately, when examining this matchup, it looks to be a damn fine ball game. A game in which a
growing program (of which both schools are) could capture sweet program momentum.

Now, good luck in your brackets and finding tickets to Austin.

 

[absinthe]

On Dancing Buffaloes:
http://pachoops.com/2013/03/the-dancing-colorado-buffaloes/

 

[Darth Snow]

**** Adam for making me think about the Elite 8. I have it blocked out.

 

[RumblinBuff]

Attn: All media - please stop picking us to win things. Kthnxbai

 

[Buffnik]

WTF?!?!

The bracket picks that I made, which made me nervous because I knew I was being a total homer... don't have the Buffs advancing farther than a good number of media talking heads. That scares the **** out of me.

Am I now a bad fan for not picking the Buffs in the Final Four? How the hell did this happen?

My expectations are now completely out of whack. I'm totally freaking out about Friday. Somehow, it's become a huge letdown if we don't advance past a team that's favored over us, won 22 while playing in the country's best conference, was ranked in the top 10 during the season, and has knocked out two of the number 1 seeds.

 

[Uncle Ken]

It's hard to manage a far run into the tourney, when our first game, at best, is a coin toss.

 

[Darth Snow]

It's hard to manage a far run into the tourney, when our first game, at best, is a coin toss.

and when our chances in the second game are about as good as a roll of the die.

 

[Uncle Ken]

and when our chances in the second game are about as good as a roll of the die.

Just happy to be there, this year.

 

[wyobuff]

I have us beating miami and falling to butler. Homer or no, I'll blow up a small portion of my bracket to put the buffs further. And where's c'ville, the one that's been saying prep for a first weekend miami exit all season?
Now that that could be on us (remember, they ahve to beat the 15 first, and they've lost to a 15 in this bracket already this season).
Would be nice if ski got his stroke back though. Keep your head down and keep working, it'll come.

 

[absinthe]

Just happy to be there, this year.

Agreed making the dance this year and winning 20+ games again makes the season a huge success for me.

 

[CVilleBuff]

I have us beating miami and falling to butler. Homer or no, I'll blow up a small portion of my bracket to put the buffs further. And where's c'ville, the one that's been saying prep for a first weekend miami exit all season?
Now that that could be on us (remember, they ahve to beat the 15 first, and they've lost to a 15 in this bracket already this season).
Would be nice if ski got his stroke back though. Keep your head down and keep working, it'll come.

He's right here and still thinks Miami is more vulnerable than any of the 1-2 seeds. They're built like a giant killer, not a giant. Big difference.

But first, everyone needs to stop talking about Miami and start cheering for Pacific.

 

[Buffnik]

He's right here and still thinks Miami is more vulnerable than any of the 1-2 seeds. They're built like a giant killer, not a giant. Big difference.

But first, everyone needs to stop talking about Miami and start cheering for Pacific.

Not a bad 15-seed. They won at Xavier and beat Saint Mary's on a neutral court this year. Definitely capable of winning a game if things break right for them.