PacHoops: The times, they are a-changin'

[absinthe]

www.PacHoops.com
Adam Butler

I have this sneaking suspicion that Saturday’s game against Colorado and Utah is going to be a slow one. There won’t be many possessions and the score will be low. This is neither a bad thing nor a good thing it’s just my guess – educated as it may or may not be – that I’ll try to explain.

First of all, if we look at the historical matchup of this rivalry that I don’t know what to call (though in my Week 5 Preview I list options of which my favorite is the Ski Skirmish), the games have generally been low scoring. And by the way, when I say “historical” I mean as pieces of the Conference of Champions. That’s as deep as PacHoops’ research intern will go (you get what you pay for). Aside from last season, this has been a lopsided affair. Everyone took their whacks at Utah in Pac-12 year 1 so we can sort of dismiss it that although it did happen. Point is, on average, when a Larry K team plays a Roll Tad team, neither squad seems to break 60 points. Utah, in fact, has barely broached the 50 point barrier. In one matchup, they scored just 33 points which unfortunately for them coincided with CU’s best offensive output in the series (73).
That’s the historical side of things and it does seem to establish a precedent for my hypothesis. And it’s a hypothesis founded on what I saw from both teams last weekend. First of all, I noticed that Utah was generally in no rush to get shots up. Against Arizona, the Utes took nearly 30% of their offense 30 seconds into the possession or later. That’s an insanely high amount but it would seem Utah has a certain comfort there. They’re already taking 12.7% of their offense deep into the shot clock. They also do an alright job at it, too: 43.3% eFG. Now it’s difficult to contextualize those numbers so I ask you to trust me.
Wait – what’s that? – you won’t? Ugh, fine.

Utah’s 12.7% of tardy offense is the second latest in the conference; sooner only than Washington State’s astounding 17.7%. My analysis of the latter is: WSU sucks. The eFG% the Utes put up is 7th best in the conference so it’s a somewhat ignorable factor. Point is, Larry’s team takse their sweet time to get a shot up and Tad’s team has no problem forcing that. This year’s Buffalo defense forces 10.5% of shots close to zeros. Against the Buffs last season, 12 of 99 field goal attempts came of the late varietal which is about par for the Ute course.

Further on the CU side of things, with Dinwiddie out, the Buffs are without their most effective transition player. The Mayor was putting up a 67% eFG in transition and had assisted on 29 baskets on the move. He was generating steals which further fed the Buffalo transition game – a vital part of CU’s offense. But that’s gone now and I think a more deliberate approach is forthcoming. The numbers are slowly starting to suggest it. They’ve put up below average possessions in the last two games. Sure it’s a small sample set but it did happen (JG is quick to note that tempo/pace decreases in conference play anyways). But it’s my believe that it’s in the Buffs’ best interest to be more deliberate, pensive, and exact in their offense. Even without Dinwiddie, the defense has been fine. They held UCLA to below one point per possession which is an accomplishment in and of itself while also keeping Arizona and ASU below their offensive norms.

Two of Colorado’s most potent offensive weapons are Askia Booker and Josh Scott; both of whom are more effective scorers in the half-court set. First of all, Booker leads the team in shots in transition but effectively shoots below 50% on those shots. We aren’t soon to call Booker a great decision maker and his new role on this team is one that needs him to be a better decision maker. He’s proven he can play more of a facilitator role but it might be best suited for the half-court. After all, Josh Scott leads the team with a 52% eFG not in transition. Sure his FG% is higher in transition but 18.3% of CU’s transition O is initiated off of a rebound. Who leads the Buffs in rebounding? Josh Scott. So it’s less likely that he’s getting those touches. Slow the game down and get Jelly the Rock. I wrote about how UCLA uses its defense as an opportunistic means to its transition offense, a practice the Buffaloes already follow. But the strategy may have to be adjusted for personnel and how to get the most out of them.

As Bob Dylan said, “The times, they are a-changin’,” and so too is the pace. Saturday should be a good example of the new-look Buffs

 

[jgisland]

Good stuff - a couple thoughts

A) I'm a huge Bob Dylan fan

B) I've argued over and over that CU needs to get out in transition b/c they do it a lot compared to the rest of the NCAA and b/c that's all I've ever known under Tad. Half-court sets have been ugly, stagnant and honestly brutal to watch, maybe I just don't want to see anymore of them than I have to. But maybe that's cold-war thinking and we're living in a post-cold war SD world. Dinwiddie was the transition offense, he was the one creating and finishing in transition, either by making it or getting fouled. What if this is a half-court team now? As pachoops said, Scott is a half-court player, he's not getting out on the wing on the break and having posterizing dunks off of an ally oop. In hushed circles in the corner of dark rooms it has been discussed, "is the half-court ball movement actually better without Dinwidide in the line-up?" DT has struggled lately, no two-ways about it, but he does create spacing in the half-court against the zone by flashing to the high post, he just needs to have the confidence to pull the trigger on that elbow jumper. Ski is ski, but the guy can break down the defense off the dribble and get to the rack. And Scott is a beast in the post, transition basketball is not is forte.

Maybe just maybe, CU does need to take the air out of the ball on offense and TRY to execute in the half-court.

 

[Darth Snow]

Good stuff - a couple thoughts

A) I'm a huge Bob Dylan fan

B) I've argued over and over that CU needs to get out in transition b/c they do it a lot compared to the rest of the NCAA and b/c that's all I've ever known under Tad. Half-court sets have been ugly, stagnant and honestly brutal to watch, maybe I just don't want to see anymore of them than I have to. But maybe that's cold-war thinking and we're living in a post-cold war SD world. Dinwiddie was the transition offense, he was the one creating and finishing in transition, either by making it or getting fouled. What if this is a half-court team now? As pachoops said, Scott is a half-court player, he's not getting out on the wing on the break and having posterizing dunks off of an ally oop. In hushed circles in the corner of dark rooms it has been discussed, "is the half-court ball movement actually better without Dinwidide in the line-up?" DT has struggled lately, no two-ways about it, but he does create spacing in the half-court against the zone by flashing to the high post, he just needs to have the confidence to pull the trigger on that elbow jumper. Ski is ski, but the guy can break down the defense off the dribble and get to the rack. And Scott is a beast in the post, transition basketball is not is forte.

Maybe just maybe, CU does need to take the air out of the ball on offense and TRY to execute in the half-court.

So weird how the ball moves better with spencer gone.... unfortunately that fast movement acts like a ping pong ball in the bouncy zone... faster, faster, faster, lost it...

 

[pachoops]

You could've dropped the mic at, "But maybe that's cold-war thinking and we're living in a post-cold war SD world."

 

[CVilleBuff]

hope we aren't using the titanic soundtrack for the next edition.

 

[tante]

hope we aren't using the titanic soundtrack for the next edition.

All I hear is that horn from Inception and thinking we are stuck in Limbo