Peak High School Football participation was 2008, CTE, and other signs of decline.

[MiamiBuffs]

No numbers yet for the Covid years...

• 11-player football hit its participation peak in 2008-09 (1,112,303)
• Participation is at its lowest level since 1999-2000 (1,002,734).
• Participation could fall below 1 million next year (2020, no data yet. But COVID). 1998-99 (983,625) was the last year that happened.
• High school football participation is in a decade-long demise that shows no sign of ending, and think seriously about what to do about it.
• Texas is the No. 1 state for participation (of course), but its participation-per-school rate is dropping quickly. In 2016-17 it was 153.3; in 2017-18, 135.3; and in 2018-19, 125.6. Meaning, its growth is coming from more schools offering football, not more boys showing up to play at every school.
• Where that participation rate was [once] more than 26% -- meaning where once one in four boys played, now we're moving toward one in five.
• By all accounts, the only region where youth football continues to grow, or at least not decline, is the Southeast.
• Insurance companies are balking at covering football leagues, or at least charging them a lot more. (Rising insurance costs was one cited reason for Arizona junior colleges dropping football after the 2018 season.)
• Major college football attendance in 2018 was at its lowest in 22 years, with students, already falling out of the habit of going to their high schools' games
• College football playoff television ratings were down in 2018-19 compared to the previous season
• The regionalization of football at the youth and college levels may be a process that reinforces itself. Consider that of the top ten states which saw increases (or the smallest decreases) in high school participation from 2008-09 to 2018-19, seven are SEC states plus Oklahoma. These seven states alone produced almost half of the top high school recruits (so-called four and five star athletes as tallied up from 2013 to 2017) to all FBS universities. By contrast the 25 states which saw the greatest decline in high school football participation over that same decade produced less than 20% of the top high school recruits to FBS schools.

I think what were gripping about at CU is part of a perfect storm tied to all the above.

We cant do anything about slumping numbers in the states we depend on for players.

We havent had the right coaches to land the fewer available players. When we did have that coach he left for a better place to recruit to.

Our admin has been complacent relying on our conference and history to attract said coaches and players (Not working).

In Particular that last graph that shows a balkanization of the sport into one region and weve all noticed it. And that geography is against us. Top Players Have mostly said they choose schools they think have the best chance to get them to the NFL. That will make it harder to get them to leave that southeast footprint (NIL reasons too). Then you have the portal that will let any good kid we do get go to the SEC making all conferences a farm system for them.

High School Football Participation Is On A Decade-Long Decline

A survey finds high school football participation at its lowest level in nearly 20 years.

www.forbes.com

Football Deathwatch: The Equivalent of Tobacco And Asbestos Edition

As another season starts, the question remains: is football dying, and if so, how quickly?

www.forbes.com

The Decline Of Football Is Real And It’s Accelerating

Despite the continued popularity of the National Football League (NFL) in the United States, more broadly gridiron football is in an era of rapid decline, and evidence suggests that the decline is accelerating.

www.forbes.com

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Ultimately Because of the above there will probably be less programs in G5 FBS because there will evetually be less quality players to go around. I’d assume that the folding of lessor programs will start in The G5 and the larger FCS confs whose schools are in P5 sized geographic footprints requiring the expensive cost of hotels and air travel while lacking TV money (as rating fall so will money). Remember, those schools have to bare that Financial burden across a dozen sports, not just football. Those ADs will be hard pressed to stay comitted with low attendance and poor performance.

D3, D2, conferences which are more aligned around bus travel and short day trips will be fine I think. Maybe some of the G5 moves in that direction.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Where does that leave CU? There will always be some players. And With P12 money, as long as it lasts, we survive.

Some schools outside that SE region will become stronger while others in their same conference become weaker. The best players will concentrate when outside SE.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

I bet if you could look up the numbers for Mens Lacrosse you’d see this sport being added and growing at the HS level.

Some HS in colorado are starting to add Mens Volleyball too.

As someone who follows soccer ive noticed an increase of players playing pro in europe seemingly at an all time high while there were previously very few.

 

[MtnBuff]

There are certainly some concerns for football in the future with participation numbers.

You could extend this to a lot of sports though sometimes for different reasons or dynamics.

Football isn't the only sport to see declines in participation. Wrestling is on it's last legs at many schools. participation in sports such as basketball and baseball and girls sports such as softball and gymnastics is down in many areas.

The whys are very complicated. Some observations partially from my own experiences in education and also from things I've seen in the media.

Statistics show that a declining number of students at the high school level participate in sports and those that do tend to participate in fewer sports. High school sports are less of a focus for high school students than they once were.

The high school kids who participate in sports more often focus on one particular sport participating in not only their high school team but also in club teams, camp for that sport, etc. This results in kids who are better at that sport but results in even lower participation because the kids who don't focus on the sport become excluded. My younger daughter wanted to play volleyball but the girls who made the varsity team (and most of the JV) were the girls who did club volleyball year around and who had been doing club since early middle school or before.

Sports like lacrosse and soccer get mentioned. There are more sporting options available to kids diluting the talent pool. My older daughter tried track and field and was one of the best athletes on the team. She decided not to pursue it after one year though because she instead preferred to use the time training for her mountain biking, something that was school affiliated but not an official school sport. The track coaches tried to convince her (and me) that she should do both but the bike won.

 

[Buffnik]

When I was in HS, it was almost unheard of for someone to specialize in a sport. It was also unusual for someone to be one of the jocks who starred in basketball, baseball, T&F, wrestling or LAX to not play football (those who didn't played soccer).

I think that specialization had a big impact on participation. Football players today lift for football as their PE credit, have spring & summer team activities, etc. It's a year-round commitment, not just something that for most of the guys is a fun sport to play in the fall with their friends.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

When I was in HS, it was almost unheard of for someone to specialize in a sport. It was also unusual for someone to be one of the jocks who starred in basketball, baseball, T&F, wrestling or LAX to not play football (those who didn't played soccer).

I think that specialization had a big impact on participation. Football players today lift for football as their PE credit, have spring & summer team activities, etc. It's a year-round commitment, not just something that for most of the guys is a fun sport to play in the fall with their friends.

Our High School was like that as well. The best players played Football in the fall, basketball in the winter, baseball in the spring. Rinse repeat. So many kids would go out that they had to turn kids away.

I used to coach this girl who was a phenomenal soccer player and was super fast. When she got to high school she dropped all sports and specialized on cross country. She apparently has several D1 offers. I know of some Volleyball and Basketball players that each have done the same. HS season in their sport, club the rest of the year.

 

[Highlander]

When I was in HS, it was almost unheard of for someone to specialize in a sport. It was also unusual for someone to be one of the jocks who starred in basketball, baseball, T&F, wrestling or LAX to not play football (those who didn't played soccer).

I think that specialization had a big impact on participation. Football players today lift for football as their PE credit, have spring & summer team activities, etc. It's a year-round commitment, not just something that for most of the guys is a fun sport to play in the fall with their friends.

Our High School was like that as well. The best players played Football in the fall, basketball in the winter, baseball in the spring. Rinse repeat. So many kids would go out that they had to turn kids away.

I used to coach this girl who was a phenomenal soccer player and was super fast. When she got to high school she dropped all sports and specialized on cross country. She apparently has several D1 offers. I know of some Volleyball and Basketball players that each have done the same. HS season in their sport, club the rest of the year.

Soccer is a year round sport at 10 for skilled players. I assume that is the same for other sports. The world has changed - not necessarily for the better.

 

[skibum]

Soccer is a year round sport at 10 for skilled players. I assume that is the same for other sports. The world has changed - not necessarily for the better.

Extend this thought though: do we actually have more total kids participating in one sport than we used to have kids who participated in sports?

Is that good or bad?

It's not an uncomplicated subject, that's for sure.

 

[PAC MAN]

That OU & UT move to the SEC is going to further regionalize the sport of college football and that will explain why we keep seeing more kids coming to CU from the southeast than we used to (as it seems to me).

I have been saying CU needs to add men's LAX for quite sometime because there's this CU men's sports void in the spring after basketball is done. The numbers might not support it for non-football sports but I still like the idea of repurposing Folsom Field to be multi-sports such as football, soccer, lacrosse, rugby, etc. It's important that we keep the Ralphie tradition alive regardless of sport.

 

[SeanMSan]

When I was in HS, it was almost unheard of for someone to specialize in a sport. It was also unusual for someone to be one of the jocks who starred in basketball, baseball, T&F, wrestling or LAX to not play football (those who didn't played soccer).

I think that specialization had a big impact on participation. Football players today lift for football as their PE credit, have spring & summer team activities, etc. It's a year-round commitment, not just something that for most of the guys is a fun sport to play in the fall with their friends.

When I was in HS in the late 90’s. The FB coaches would rather have us out being competitive in other sports, than to be in the weight room after school in the winter in spring.

Unfortunately, for me, my grades and attendance dropped after football season, so even though I was a better baseball player than football player, the coaches never kept me around after first round of cuts. No matter how good I was, I would have been dead weight due to grades and attendance. it’s funny what you find out from teachers/coaches in adult life. one would have to think I would have caught on to this during those times, but I was as cluelessly aloof as they came as a teenager!

 

[Da Lama]

Soccer is a year round sport at 10 for skilled players. I assume that is the same for other sports. The world has changed - not necessarily for the better.

Soccer and baseball ruined HS sports. Set this example that you had to specialize and play year round. Killed numbers in other sports for a period of time then drove all the other sports to follow suit and that REALLY created chaos.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Soccer and baseball ruined HS sports. Set this example that you had to specialize and play year round. Killed numbers in other sports for a period of time then drove all the other sports to follow suit and that REALLY created chaos.

Youre really talking about the rise of club sports. Of which there are now multiple. When I was kid most of those sports, but not all, were offered thru the local rec center. With the same coaches coaching each sport.

 

[MtnBuff]

Youre really talking about the rise of club sports. Of which there are now multiple. When I was kid most of those sports, but not all, were offered thru the local rec center. With the same coaches coaching each sport.

The parks and rec time you are talking about most of the coaches were volunteers or working for a little bit of extra cash but mostly because they enjoyed coaching kids.

These clubs are often first and foremost a business for the people running them. They charge club fees, make a cut off of uniforms and team gear, team pictures, etc. Go year around and make more money, recruit better players and win more and more parents are willing to pay to have their kids participate.

Not all club teams are like this. My older daughters mountain bike team has a group of coaches who just love the sport and want to pass it on. The sport is expensive but they aren't making any money off it and in fact end up in the negatives considering that they are covering their own travel expenses and more. I'm sure there are some other teams who's coaches and managers are collecting a lot more money than ours.

On the other side of it when my younger daughter was in middle school they had a travelling team (who's coach was friends with the local middle school and high school coaches and who pretty much made sure that the club girls got preference for those squads.) They were charging around $1000 just to join the team then still had to pay for tournament entries, all their own travel, uniforms, etc. etc.

It ends up that with kids concentrating on one sport the have an advantage over the kids who do a little of each throughout the year. They also get an advantage over the kids who can't afford the club cost and over kids who start the sport a little later and are further behind on basic skills. Really good athletes can overcome this but for the average kid it's discouraging to know that they don't have much of a shot.

It also leads more into the pressure to win because with parents putting out big money for their kids to be in the sports they expect to see results, even if the kid is just out there to have fun.