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Phile Steele's Toughest Schedule of 2011 - CU # 1

jgisland

jgisland

Club Member
Phil Steele published this about a month ago but I just ran across it last night and I don't think it has been discussed on here. But Phil Steele uses an advanced formula to calculate strength of schedules as opposed to the NCAA's method of simply using the opposing teams winning %. The NCAA method has CU's schedule as the 14th toughest while Phil has us coming in with the toughest schedule in the country. It is interesting to see some of the biggest disparities in the two methods of calculations as well.

http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/07/18/which-team-plays-the-toughest-schedule-in-2011/
 
Ironcially, you could make a pretty good argument that this year our move to the PAC12 made our schedule easier, not harder. The Big XII has more ranked teams, and if we were playing a Big XII conference schedule wouldn't that be even harder than a PAC 12 schedule? Doesn't every Big XII team have a more difficult conference schedule than we do?
 
Cyberbuff said:
Ironcially, you could make a pretty good argument that this year our move to the PAC12 made our schedule easier, not harder. The Big XII has more ranked teams, and if we were playing a Big XII conference schedule wouldn't that be even harder than a PAC 12 schedule? Doesn't every Big XII team have a more difficult conference schedule than we do?
Click to expand...

you look at the top QB rankings (QB rating/yards total etc.) and while we see a lot of Pac 10 QB's listed, there are even more Big XII returning QB's (though, we might miss a lot of them on South rotation...don't care to remember where we were at in that). so, i tend to agree. but schedule is plenty brutal for me.
 
jgisland said:
Phil Steele published this about a month ago but I just ran across it last night and I don't think it has been discussed on here. But Phil Steele uses an advanced formula to calculate strength of schedules as opposed to the NCAA's method of simply using the opposing teams winning %. The NCAA method has CU's schedule as the 14th toughest while Phil has us coming in with the toughest schedule in the country. It is interesting to see some of the biggest disparities in the two methods of calculations as well.

http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/07/18/which-team-plays-the-toughest-schedule-in-2011/
Click to expand...
It's all bull $h!!, he's got Boise State ahead of Georgia, and in his mag says Georgia will be their toughest game of the season. Dosen't Georgia play an SEC schedule, and Boise a MWC?
 
jgisland said:
Phil Steele published this about a month ago but I just ran across it last night and I don't think it has been discussed on here. But Phil Steele uses an advanced formula to calculate strength of schedules as opposed to the NCAA's method of simply using the opposing teams winning %. The NCAA method has CU's schedule as the 14th toughest while Phil has us coming in with the toughest schedule in the country. It is interesting to see some of the biggest disparities in the two methods of calculations as well.

http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/07/18/which-team-plays-the-toughest-schedule-in-2011/
Click to expand...

There is that pesky search engine.... see thread here.
 
77buff said:
It's all bull $h!!, he's got Boise State ahead of Georgia, and in his mag says Georgia will be their toughest game of the season. Dosen't Georgia play an SEC schedule, and Boise a MWC?
Click to expand...

The NCAA rankings also has Boise St (#41) over Georgia (#43). I think the big deal with his rankings is that Georgia is playing 8 home games, including games against Coastal Carolina, New Mexico State, and Kentucky. No one is saying they have a cake schedule though, as they do have to play Boise St (at home), South Carolina (at home), Mississippi State (at home), Florida (at home), and Auburn (at home) and they managed to avoid Alabama and LSU this year.

Boise has an arguably more difficult schedule because they play only 6 home games and they play Georgia on the road. I don't believe their schedule is more difficult personally, but as Buff fans all know - playing tough games at home can make all the difference... I think it is pretty clear that if the Kansas debacle of last year would have been played at Folsom it wouldn't have been a loss or there would have been riots on the Hill.
 
CUSoldier said:
The NCAA rankings also has Boise St (#41) over Georgia (#43). I think the big deal with his rankings is that Georgia is playing 8 home games, including games against Coastal Carolina, New Mexico State, and Kentucky. No one is saying they have a cake schedule though, as they do have to play Boise St (at home), South Carolina (at home), Mississippi State (at home), Florida (at home), and Auburn (at home) and they managed to avoid Alabama and LSU this year.

Boise has an arguably more difficult schedule because they play only 6 home games and they play Georgia on the road. I don't believe their schedule is more difficult personally, but as Buff fans all know - playing tough games at home can make all the difference... I think it is pretty clear that if the Kansas debacle of last year would have been played at Folsom it wouldn't have been a loss or there would have been riots on the Hill.
Click to expand...

There's probably a lot less separation when you get that deep into the rankings, and you're talking about #51 vs #53.
 
77buff said:
It's all bull $h!!, he's got Boise State ahead of Georgia, and in his mag says Georgia will be their toughest game of the season. Dosen't Georgia play an SEC schedule, and Boise a MWC?
Click to expand...

Georgia has an easy schedule for SEC standards. Only 4 road games and the toughest one at the end of the year against Georgia Tech.They avoid LSU and Alabama. Georgia should win 11 games mimimum, maybe even make it to the SEC title game undefeated. Colorado could win 8 or 9 games with Georgia's schedule this year.

Boise St. (Atlanta)
South Carolina
Coastal Carolina
@ Mississippi
Mississippi St.
@ Tennessee
@ Vanderbilt
Florida (Jacksonville)
New Mexico St.
Auburn
Kentucky
@ Georgia Tech


Similar to Auburns easy schedule last year.

Meanwhile Boise has to play Georgia Air Force and TCU. So yes I can see how Boise's schedule is harder than Georgia's this year.
 
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CUSoldier said:
The NCAA rankings also has Boise St (#41) over Georgia (#43). I think the big deal with his rankings is that Georgia is playing 8 home games, including games against Coastal Carolina, New Mexico State, and Kentucky. No one is saying they have a cake schedule though, as they do have to play Boise St (at home), South Carolina (at home), Mississippi State (at home), Florida (at home), and Auburn (at home) and they managed to avoid Alabama and LSU this year.

Boise has an arguably more difficult schedule because they play only 6 home games and they play Georgia on the road. I don't believe their schedule is more difficult personally, but as Buff fans all know - playing tough games at home can make all the difference... I think it is pretty clear that if the Kansas debacle of last year would have been played at Folsom it wouldn't have been a loss or there would have been riots on the Hill.
Click to expand...

Welcome CUSoldier. I initially transposed the first 3 letters of your online name and got CSUsoldier. I was about to tell you how wrong your comment was, but I reread it correctly, and on second thought, agree with everything you say.
 
Unleash Hell said:
Georgia has an easy schedule for SEC standards. Only 4 road games and the toughest one at the end of the year against Georgia Tech.They avoid LSU and Alabama. Georgia should win 11 games mimimum, maybe even make it to the SEC title game undefeated. Colorado could win 8 or 9 games with Georgia's schedule this year.

Boise St. (Atlanta)
South Carolina
Coastal Carolina
@ Mississippi
Mississippi St.
@ Tennessee
@ Vanderbilt
Florida (Jacksonville)
New Mexico St.
Auburn
Kentucky
@ Georgia Tech


Similar to Auburns easy schedule last year.

Meanwhile Boise has to play Georgia Air Force and TCU. So yes I can see how Boise's schedule is harder than Georgia's this year.
Click to expand...
Seriously, when was the last time we won 8 or 9 games 2002?
 
Unleash Hell said:
Georgia has an easy schedule for SEC standards. Only 4 road games and the toughest one at the end of the year against Georgia Tech.They avoid LSU and Alabama. Georgia should win 11 games mimimum, maybe even make it to the SEC title game undefeated. Colorado could win 8 or 9 games with Georgia's schedule this year.

Boise St. (Atlanta)
South Carolina
Coastal Carolina
@ Mississippi
Mississippi St.
@ Tennessee
@ Vanderbilt
Florida (Jacksonville)
New Mexico St.
Auburn
Kentucky
@ Georgia Tech


Similar to Auburns easy schedule last year.

Meanwhile Boise has to play Georgia Air Force and TCU. So yes I can see how Boise's schedule is harder than Georgia's this year.
Click to expand...

That schedule for UGA is why they should be the favorite in the SEC East, not South Carolina.
 
77buff said:
Your'e telling me a CU team that couldn't win in the Big 12 North could win in the SEC East?
Click to expand...
My point was Georgia has an easy schedule. And yes with THAT schedule, CU could have a winning record, thats how easy it is. I'm not saying CU is some great team. I am saying Georgia's schedule is so easy, the buffs could even have a winning record with it.

btw, there was some sarcasm thrown in about CU. CU probably would only have 6 or 7 wins, but still a winning record.
 
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CVilleBuff said:
So? your question was "when was the last time CU won 8 or 9 games?".
Click to expand...
Unleash stated that CU could win 8 or 9 games with Georgia's schedule, that's regular season 12 games, last time I checked 8 + 5 = 13. We were talking about regular season schedule, so '04 CU did not win 8 or 9 games in regualr season. There no way this CU team could have a winning record in the SEC East, but yes - they could win Georgia's non con games - maybe even Boise, which doesn't belong in the Top 10.
 
77buff said:
Unleash stated that CU could win 8 or 9 games with Georgia's schedule, that's regular season 12 games, last time I checked 8 + 5 = 13. We were talking about regular season schedule, so '04 CU did not win 8 or 9 games in regualr season. There no way this CU team could have a winning record in the SEC East, but yes - they could win Georgia's non con games - maybe even Boise, which doesn't belong in the Top 10.
Click to expand...

SEC east is not that great right now. Not a single one of them is a legit national title contender. Georgia plays most of their games at home, last I checked, CU is a good home teams, in fact CU just beat a SEC east team at home last year.

Basically it boils down like this

Boise ST: BSU would kill CU
South Carolina: The East's champion last year would proably win in Boulder
Coastal carolina: CU win
@ Ole Miss: Probable CU win
Miss st: CU loss
@ Tennessee: Wouldn't surprise me if CU won
@ Vandy: CU win
FLorida: CU loss, but hard to tell with Florida right now
New Mexico st: CU win
Auburn: CU win. AUburn is basically like UGA last year. They will take a huge step back.
Kentucky: CU win
@ Georgia Tech: CU loss
 
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