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Playoff outlook (10-26 edition)

Duff Man

Duff Man

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Still a pretty jumbled picture, but here is how I view it:

1. Bama
2. FSU
3. Miss St.
4. Oregon

Notre Dame was my first team out. I don't trust Auburn, Ole Miss, or Georgia in the SEC.

I think Michigan State and TCU are very good, but benefactors of weak conferences.

The dark horse is ASU (puke). Notre Dame, Arizona, and potentially Oregon in the conference title game left on the schedule. Tough stretch, but they earn there way in if they win out IMO.
 
I expect the Pac-12 champ to be in the playoff. Only way it gets iffy, imo, is if Stanford runs the table. Would a 10-3 Stanford get in? Probably not, if it was between Furd and Notre Dame given the head-to-head.
 
Buffnik said:
I expect the Pac-12 champ to be in the playoff. Only way it gets iffy, imo, is if Stanford runs the table. Would a 10-3 Stanford get in? Probably not, if it was between Furd and Notre Dame given the head-to-head.
Click to expand...

If the P12 champ only has 1 loss then they'll get in, Oregon for sure. But I really don't think a 2-loss P12 champ would trump any remaining 1-loss teams from any of the other P5 conferences. No way a 3-loss team is getting in.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
If the P12 champ only has 1 loss then they'll get in, Oregon for sure. But I really don't think a 2-loss P12 champ would trump any remaining 1-loss teams from any of the other P5 conferences. No way a 3-loss team is getting in.
Click to expand...

Depends on how they look at it and what team is in question. A 2-loss ASU with a win over Notre Dame or a 2-loss UO with a win over Michigan State or a 2-loss UCLA that won at UVA and neutral vs Texas (trying to schedule tough) or a 2-loss Utah that won at Michigan and whipped Fresno State (again, trying to schedule tough) may very well be looked at favorably versus a 1-loss Baylor or Michigan state or Ohio State or Nebraska.
 
ESPN is going to continue to inflate the SEC... fully expecting two SEC teams in the final four and Notre Dame with three of the P5 conferences left out. Unfortunately, the P12 and B12 will probably be those conferences. Final four: 1) Florida State, 2) Notre Dame, 3) Georgia, 4) Alabama.

Assumptions: Bama beats MissSt, LSU, and Auburn heading into the SEC title game. Georgia beats Auburn and the other relative cupcake teams on their schedule to set up a #1 Bama versus #6-8 Georgia SEC title. Georgia wins a close game.

Outrage is palpable. One loss Mich St, Oregon, and TCU left on the outside looking in. Playoffs expanded to 8 teams (which was the original end goal for most playoff enthusiasts) for 2015. The 'financial' sellout of CFB for TV dollars continues.
 
IowaBuffFan said:
ESPN is going to continue to inflate the SEC... fully expecting two SEC teams in the final four and Notre Dame with three of the P5 conferences left out. Unfortunately, the P12 and B12 will probably be those conferences. Final four: 1) Florida State, 2) Notre Dame, 3) Georgia, 4) Alabama.

Assumptions: Bama beats MissSt, LSU, and Auburn heading into the SEC title game. Georgia beats Auburn and the other relative cupcake teams on their schedule to set up a #1 Bama versus #6-8 Georgia SEC title. Georgia wins a close game.

Outrage is palpable. One loss Mich St, Oregon, and TCU left on the outside looking in. Playoffs expanded to 8 teams (which was the original end goal for most playoff enthusiasts) for 2015. The 'financial' sellout of CFB for TV dollars continues.
Click to expand...

If it results in an 8-team playoff of the P5 champs + 3 wildcards, I don't think there will be much complaint about the format.
 
Buffnik said:
If it results in an 8-team playoff of the P5 champs + 3 wildcards, I don't think there will be much complaint about the format.
Click to expand...

I was never a fan of the playoff, so expanding it doesn't make me excited. Takes away from the rest of the bowl games. THAT SAID, I wasn't a fan of inter-league MLB (I am now), remember stating emphatically that Ryan Leaf would be a better NFL QB than Peyton before the draft that year (may have misjudged that one), and am a self-identified slow adopter...

If we do expand the playoff, do you think it'd be a good idea to put in some other changes to ensure a level playing field? Ideas like same number of conference games, elimination of conference title games (or all P5 programs have one), P5 non-conference game match-ups with other P5 schools, etc?
 
Iowa,

I think if you lock in the P5 champs, then we don't have to care about how they determined their champion or how they scheduled in the OOC.

Where that stuff comes into play is with the wildcard selection. The committee can show what it values. We'll get our answer when we decisions made between a 1-loss team that played 8 conference games, 1 good OOC game and 3 cupcakes versus a 2-loss team that played 9 conference games and 2 solid OOC opponents.
 
No way a one loss Oregon gets left out. If they do, then that's all I need to know what this was about.
 
Illegal Jesus said:
No way a one loss Oregon gets left out. If they do, then that's all I need to know what this was about.
Click to expand...

Any 1-loss team from the Pac-12, actually. Oregon is easy with the way they handled Sparty.

But look at the others who are sitting at 1 loss.

Arizona is the weakest case, but they won at Oregon and their loss is by 2 points to USC.

Arizona State lost to UCLA their first week after their starting QB got hurt and would have a Notre Dame win if they go 12-1.

Utah had a 1pt loss to Wazzu, but has beaten UCLA and USC while also scheduling and winning at Michigan.

I'd actually make the case for any of them plus UCLA finishing with 2 losses and getting selected over a 1-loss team from the B1G or Big 12 (or anyone not named FSU from the ACC) if it came down to it.
 
Buffnik said:
Any 1-loss team from the Pac-12, actually. Oregon is easy with the way they handled Sparty.

But look at the others who are sitting at 1 loss.

Arizona is the weakest case, but they won at Oregon and their loss is by 2 points to USC.

Arizona State lost to UCLA their first week after their starting QB got hurt and would have a Notre Dame win if they go 12-1.

Utah had a 1pt loss to Wazzu, but has beaten UCLA and USC while also scheduling and winning at Michigan.

I'd actually make the case for any of them plus UCLA finishing with 2 losses and getting selected over a 1-loss team from the B1G or Big 12 (or anyone not named FSU from the ACC) if it came down to it.
Click to expand...

I can pretty much guarantee you that wouldn't happen even if that 1-loss B10 team was Nebraska or OSU. Michigan State definitely wouldn't be trumped by a 2-loss P12 champion, and I just don't see the committee putting in a 2-loss Oregon as P12 champ over a 1-loss B10 champ (which would be one of MSU, NU, or OSU).
 
FSU and two SEC teams. Notre Dame, PAC, Big XII and B1G fight for final spot. Complete cluster **** ensues. Both sec teams win the semis and 2015 they get three teams in.

From phone
 
I think you guys are forgetting the fact that Zona and Utah will have 2 losses once the season ends. F
 
I really think the committee is going to highly regard conference champions. I see it right now as
1. Miss St
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. Mich St

Miss St beat Alabama but needs to finish. Mich St could get in by running the table even with the loss to ducks. Alabama could get in past Mich St, hard to tell how this committee votes, huge game in Death Valley coming up.
 
If Oregon wins out including the CCG, they will get in, no question.
If UGA wins out, which would include beating Auburn and winning the SECCG, they're in. Guranteed.
If Auburn and MSU both win out - which means MSU would go to the SECCG - Auburn is in without even winning the SEC West. Guaranteed.

So much football left to be played.
 
I don't get the Michigan State love. They haven't beaten the types of teams other 1-loss teams have.

What impresses everyone?

Was it the wins over Jacksonville State, Eastern Michigan and Wyoming in the non-conference?

Was it that they played Oregon tough in Eugene for 3 quarters before losing 46-27?

Is it that they're now halfway through their B1G slate with wins at Purdue and Indiana along with home wins over Michigan and Nebraska (27-22)?

Will a win this week against Ohio State impress you, since the Buckeyes have beaten exactly zero ranked teams and lost to VA Tech at home?

Or will it be wins over Maryland, Rutgers and Penn State that will make you think they're a Top 4 team?

The B1G has literally nothing this year. The conference lost all its good non-conference matchups and very few of them even bothered with 2 P5 opponents despite an 8-game conference schedule. **** the B1G and its representative. I'd take any 2-loss team from the Pac-12 or SEC over a 1-loss B1G champ this season.
 
I agree Nik. I would take TCU over Michigan State if we are talking the best of weak conferences.
 
Now, let's talk about the Big 12. At least they play 9 conference games, so just by virtue of conference play they've scheduled evenly with the B1G teams.

Baylor: played SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo in the non-con. Sorry. You lost a game so you're out. Got to go undefeated if you go with cupcake scheduling.

TCU: played Samford, Minnesota and SMU. Minnesota is a P5 opponent and SMU is a rival, so I'd be ok with a 1-loss TCU. (That one loss was by 3 points to Baylor.)

K-State: played SF Austin, UTEP and Auburn. Lost to Auburn at home. If Auburn isn't in the playoff, I don't know how KSU is. KSU's only chance is if Auburn makes the playoff.
 
A couple of clarifications:

1) In my last lost MSU = Mississippi St
2) It's true that Michigan State doesn't have any great wins but if they run the table I don't think there's any way the committee would put in a 2-loss P12 team over them.
 
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