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Playoff Outlook

EddieCrowder

EddieCrowder

Well-Known Member
As I predicted before the season started the Pac12 will be shut out of the 4 team playoff. Right now the pecking order has Oregon at #8 with 4 SEC teams ahead of them. The PAC's bad time slots and lack of exposure is again contributing to the perception the PAC is soft.
 
SEC team beats higher ranked SEC team- "This just shows you how tough the conference is top-to-bottom. There are no bad teams in this power conference."

Pac-12 team beats higher ranked Pac-12 team- "Looks like the Pac is not as strong as we thought. Weaker conference with no real elites."
 
Lt.Col.FrankSlade said:
If Oregon wins out - which will be a tall task, admittedly - they still have a decent shot at making the 4-team playoff.
Click to expand...

^^^^^ This ^^^^^
Four teams of the eight above Oregon right now are all in the SEC West. In playing each other, two - and likely three - will drop down. Florida State and Notre Dame play this weekend, with the loser likely to drop below Oregon. Baylor still has three ranked teams - Oklahoma (on the road), Oklahoma State and K-State - and will likely lose to at least one of those games. If push comes to shove in a vote by the playoff committee, Oregon will get the nod over Michigan State, a team they beat in the opener.

If Oregon wins out, as much as it pains me to say it, they will be in the playoffs. In fact, if they keep winning, they will likely be ranked in the top four by mid-November.
 
The 9 game conference schedule is killing the Pac 12. The P5 need to have equal conference schedules.
 
Still not sure how MSU (Mich) is above Oregon.
With they logic, the ND FSU game could do little to either team..."yeah, xxx lost, but it was to a highly ranked team". BS.
 
Make prediction about playoff before season. State that prediction is reality halfway through season. :huh:
 
Right now, assuming one team in every conference wins out, and Oregon is one of them, they have a decent chance. The biggest problem is going to be a one-loss Notre Dame team and a potential one-loss 2nd place SEC West team.

Assuming FSU beats Notre Dame, and either Mississippi State or Mississippi wins out, as well as Florida State, OU, Michigan State and Oregon, you're going to have this:

1. SEC champ
2. Florida State
3. OU

Which leaves the #4 spot to either Notre Dame, Michigan State, Oregon, or a 1-loss 2nd place SEC West school. (If Notre Dame goes undefeated and Florida State only ends up with one loss, forget about it.)

IMO, the committee is going to face a lot of pressure to not put a non-conference champion in there, which probably means a second SEC West team is hosed unless there's no other 1-loss teams.

I think Oregon beating Sparty would ultimately put them over Michigan State.

The real problem would be a one-loss Notre Dame team that only lost in Tallahassee. I don't think any other 1-loss team would jump them.
 
I am going to stand by it, and Alfred has it right 1-3 +ND makes 4, and even if OU slips up there is no way Oregon passes a 1 loss SEC team especially when that loss will be against a probable top 5 team, when Oregon's loss came to a Zona team that will at best be somewhere between 15 and out of the discussion.
For those of you that find this laughable, do laugh all you want, in the end the jokes on you
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I don't know why you would want a P12 team in the playoff. Just don't get that logic.
Click to expand...

Other than the Buffs of course. :wink2:

We complain about exposure on the east coast for the Pac-12. Put a Pac-12 team in the playoff every year and that changes. It can only be a positive for the conference as a whole.
 
The SEC champ will be fortunate to have one loss this season. Way too much season to be played.
 
CUAviator said:
Still not sure how MSU (Mich) is above Oregon.
With they logic, the ND FSU game could do little to either team..."yeah, xxx lost, but it was to a highly ranked team". BS.
Click to expand...


I don't agree-I think the loser, especially if its FSU, is done. I don't think FSU's schedule is strong enough to contend with the Big 12 champ (which I think is OU), Michigan State, Oregon, or any SEC West team (I'm referring specifically to the two Mississippi schools and Auburn---all of whom have compelling cases at 2 losses/Georgia especially if they don't run the table.

As far as Oregon-I think their big hurdle will be the championship game........mainly because Arizona State will be their opponent. They get Stanford at home, and Utah is as overrated at #23 as Arizona was at #10. They've got a great shot still, especially given that the SEC West will beat itself (MSU goes to both Alabama and Ole Miss) to an extent.

If the playoff started now:
1. Mississippi State
2. Ole Miss
3. Bailer
4. FSU

How it will end IMO:
1. Ole Miss
2. Oregon
3. Oklahoma
4. Michigan State
 
I don't remember the exact positions, but my duck coworker was telling me that they had lost something like 3 starting linemen, and at one of the OL positions the entire 2-deep was injured and they were starting a RS frosh. Getting anyone back from injury is going to be a huge help...
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I don't know why you would want a P12 team in the playoff. Just don't get that logic.
Click to expand...
It's not complicated and yes the logic is clear. For the past decade, the SEC has dominated as a football conference, at least in the minds of voters, BCS conferences and media attention.

If we could get at least 1 PAC team in the playoff every year, than there will be a balance of power a bit more for media attention, income for the conference and the teams in the conference from participation in the playoff, increased media attention in the following years for the teams playing in the PAC, and less SEC bias in rankings, perception of strength of schedule, and, in the mind of national recruits, less bias towards playing on an SEC team.

In sum, it is a virtuous circle of benefits for all teams in a conference when a representative from the conference makes it to the playoff.
 
The SEC also benefits because their marquee teams have been winning the league the last 10+ years. If MSU, USC, etc upset that order for a while and Michigan & tOSU start dominating the B1G, or OU & UT start dominating the B12, the SEC love will die down a bit.

What would be best for the P12 is for its historically good football schools to start dominating again (U$C, CU, UW). The love will come. Especially if those P12 schools assert their control while the other leagues are mired in parity.

More people will tune in to a matchup between a top 10 tOSU & Michigan or SC & CU than will watch a top 10 OleMiss & MSU.

It's not just having 2 or 3 teams in the top 10 rankings, it's having the right 2 or 3 teams in the top 10.
 
skibum said:
I don't remember the exact positions, but my duck coworker was telling me that they had lost something like 3 starting linemen, and at one of the OL positions the entire 2-deep was injured and they were starting a RS frosh. Getting anyone back from injury is going to be a huge help...
Click to expand...

That's experienced by CU standards.
 
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