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Playoff Scenarios (quick guide)

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
1. Easiest for the committee -- everything goes to chalk

Undefeated Alabama (really doesn't matter since they're in whether they win or not)
1-loss Clemson
1-loss Washington
Only decision is on whether they take a 11-1 Ohio State or the B1G Champ (either 11-2 PSU that beat tOSU or 11-2 Wisconsin that lost a close one to tOSU)

2. More difficult for the committee -- more 2-loss conference champs
Undefeated Alabama
Clemson loss eliminates ACC since it would have a 3-loss champ
1-loss Washington
Need to pick 2 spots out of a 1-loss tOSU, 2-loss B1G Champ and 2-loss Big 12 Champ (1 of which could be an Oklahoma team that tOSU smoked, but it could be Okie Lite with one of its losses being controversial)

3. Even More difficult for the committee -- most 2-loss conference champs
Undefeated Alabama
Clemson loss eliminates ACC since it would have a 3-loss champ
Washington loses to Colorado
Need to pick 3 spots out of a 1-loss tOSU, 2-loss B1G Champ, 2-loss Big 12 Champ, and a 2-loss Pac-12 Champ

4. Most difficult for the committee --
Undefeated Alabama
1-loss Clemson
Washington loses to Colorado
Need to pick 2 spots out of a 1-loss tOSU, 2-loss B1G Champ, 2-loss Big 12 Champ, and a 2-loss Pac-12 Champ

I'd say that Scenario 3 is the best opportunity for CU to end up in the Playoff. Buffs get in if the Committee decides that either CU's resume is better than that of the Big 12 Champ -or- that 2 teams shouldn't make it from the B1G. In Scenario 4, that "or" becomes an "and". If the Buffs win on Friday, we'll be rooting hard for VA Tech on Saturday.
 
For all the talk about Michigan sneaking in, I keep returning to the first CFP Poll release show this year. When asked about Washington being #5, Kirby Smart said the committee only factors in what has happened so far and that they will factor in conference championships when there are conference champions. I think we might be in for a surprise when those credentials kick in.

Michigan will drop. If VT wins, the B1G winner and PAC12 winner could pass The Poison Nuts in seeding.
 
It really comes down to the PAC12 is not respected as much as the B1G. And I think it's a bit unfounded. I believe UW and CU would beat every single team they have.
Colorado had Michigan exposed and if not for a problem that got into our Punter and his protectors head, and then the Sefo injury, there'd be no questions right now. The bigger issue though was we didn't have 100% belief in ourselves in game 3. Play that game again with the mindset we've developed this year (mentally) and that game, on that day, ends with a different result. We don't get to do that obviously, but it tells me that the B1G is not superior to the Pac12.

Unfortunately, UW didn't help themselves by beating nobody highly ranked this year. Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State is pathetic. A one score win at Arizona was less than dominating. They then dominated Stanford, who was missing their two best CBs and paid for it, and having an offense who can't score points, probably losing it mentally early in that game. They dominated a reeling Oregon team in Eugene. That was perfect timing, as that was the depth of the Ducks despair. They essentially played the Utes to a tie in SLC, but earned a one score win. They then were dominated at home by USC. They finished up by dominating WSU in Pullman, really their most impressive game.

No victories against highly ranked opponents. A few impressive wins and a few unimpressive wins. Then dominated by USC.

I can't make a case that UW is better than CU. They just played a weaker schedule. I do think they would have beaten Michigan in Ann Arbor on that day, when we weren't quite ready for that level of success.

I hope we get a shot at a top B1G team in post season.
 
this is going to mess me up.

"like, wait. did I really post that? I don't remember much after the worm got eaten, but that doesn't seem..."

Go Buffs, Hokies and Badgers!
 
Our odds may depend on whether the CFP committee follows the lead of the other polls and leaves us at #9 this week. I think its pretty subjective as to whether we should be behind PSU, OU, and possibly Wisky though they probably have the strongest argument of the three. If the committee were to jump us up a couple of spots this week for the ranked win against Utah it opens the door a little more for us if we were to win this week. Also gives us some breathing room if we lose to stay ranked ahead of USC.
 
SuperD said:
Our odds may depend on whether the CFP committee follows the lead of the other polls and leaves us at #9 this week. I think its pretty subjective as to whether we should be behind PSU, OU, and possibly Wisky though they probably have the strongest argument of the three. If the committee were to jump us up a couple of spots this week for the ranked win against Utah it opens the door a little more for us if we were to win this week. Also gives us some breathing room if we lose to stay ranked ahead of USC.
Click to expand...

Wisconsin's style of play lends itself to close scores. Who have they beaten? How much credit do we give for beating a 7-4 LSU program that was in turmoil over not firing their HC at the end of last season by a 2 point margin in a "neutral" September game played in Wisconsin? Is it that 6-point win at home over Georgia State I'm supposed to be impressed with?
 
wins against bowl eligible teams by the top 10 in the playoff rankings:
Alabama (9): USC, Western Kentucky, @ Ole Miss, Kentucky, @ Arkansas, @ Tennessee, A&M, @ LSU, Auburn
Ohio State (8): @ Oklahoma, Tulsa, Indiania, @ Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska, @ Maryland, Michigan
Clemson (8): Auburn, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Boston College, NC State, Florida State, Wake Forest, South Carolina
Washington (4): Idaho, Stanford, Utah, Washington State
Michigan (7): Hawaii, Central Florida, Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiania
Wisconsin (5): LSU (neutral), @ Iowa, Nebraska, @ Northwestern, Minnesota
Colorado (4): CSU (neutral), Stanford, Wash State, Utah
Penn State (6): Temple, Minnesota, Maryland, OSU, Iowa, Indiania
Oklahoma (4): @ TCU, K State, Baylor, WVU
USC (2): Colorado, Washington
 
It would be interesting to see the math as to whether the scheduling set up in a 14 team conference is more likely to produce teams that win at least six games to get bowl eligible compared to smaller leagues. It certainly helps to protect the top teams by having fewer cross division match ups amongst the top teams in each division.
 
SuperD said:
It would be interesting to see the math as to whether the scheduling set up in a 14 team conference is more likely to produce teams that win at least six games to get bowl eligible compared to smaller leagues. It certainly helps to protect the top teams by having fewer cross division match ups amongst the top teams in each division.
Click to expand...
you might be on to something. here's data from this year only.

2016 FBS conferences, by number of members (bowl eligible teams)

14 team conferences
ACC (11)
B1G (10)
C-USA (6)
SEC (11)

12 team conferences
AAC (7)
MAC (4)
MWC (7)
Pac (6)

11 team conference
Sun Belt (4)

10 team conference
XII (6)
 
I drove from Houston to Memphis today and listened to sports radio all day. Some of the arguments for the two loss big 10 teams fail to hold validity in my buff colored glasses. On Dan Patrick someone argued that Michigans loss to OSU should not be too important because of a QB injury. Seems to be a negative/non talking point when applied to CU and Sefo's injury. Then some Dallas talking heads said Penn St although they lost what has become a ranked Pitt team. Again it seems like the Buffs get little credit for playing close to USC.

I am completely understanding why the Buffs are not in the CFP talk and am OK being on the fringe. But still we should be in the same discussion as the fringe big 10.

The CFP committee for the first time has painted themselves into a corner with the Big 10 this year. This year we will learn if they chose the 4 best teams or the 4 most deserving teams of 2016.
 
As a fellow poster on Dawgman pointed out...

Historically the Big 10 has been given the nod over the Pac10/12. Through the years the Rose Bowl has shown them to be the weaker conference.

In the past 50 years the Pac 10/12 has met the Big10 45 times in the Rose Bowl.
We've doubled them up 30-15. In 18 of those 30 wins they were the higher rated team.

Go figure

A two loss PAC 12 Champion should be in over a two loss Big Champion (if they allow OSU which they likely will). Or both conferences should have their two loss Champion in with OSU sitting home (in which case we can lobby for expansion with support from a major conference in the future). The Big only deserves one slot this year. Let the playoff committee decide, I don't care so long as there is only one Big team. Having two would set a bad precedent.

There is no way the PAC should be left out two years in a row in favor of the Big getting two teams in.

See Michigan State 16 Iowa 13 in the Big Title game last year. Two loss Stanford then destroyed Iowa in the Rose Bowl 45-16. Not that the one loss Spartans Big Champ didn't deserve it over two loss PAC Champ Stanford, but was the Big really the better conference?

CU lost AT Michigan (but were leading when Sefo went out), and AT USC when Darnold was QB#1 (by less than a score). No blowouts, and no bad losses.

The PAC 12 Champ is absolutely worthy of being in the CFP this year. It may or may not happen but it would be ridiculous if it didn't.
 
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