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Pre-Season Prediction: CU wins 6 games

Gold

Well-Known Member
My prediction is based on one fundamental: football is simple.

10 yards on 3 attempts. This isn't a very difficult process, but the past 2 coaches and athletic director have made that seem more difficult than the Higgs Boson mystery. To know the problem is to know the coaches who came before MacIntyre.


Hawkins: He talked in cliches, and coached in cliches. From bad recruiting strategies, no coaching identity on either side of the ball, and highly quotable but low on substance responses, he lived to make every quote the most interesting quip. He wanted to be seen as the teacher of life, but what he needed to be was a practical teacher of football x's and o's, his biggest weakness. The fast talk was a charade to hide how little hands on experience he had operating an offense or defense, planning, recruiting, basically all the essentials.


His key strategic mistake: So many but recruiting Cody meant attracting no better than the likes of a Tyler Hansen to sign up for QB. Add it up and that's 5 years of non-elite QB's at CU. Serviceable yes, but it's also a half a decade's worth of non-elite starting QB.


Embree: Chief Science Officer the past 2 years at CU. Let's not be shocked that an under-qualified position coach from the NFL who gets the chance of a lifetime career move at a pay grade well above anything they've seen before feels the need to prove just how smart he is. That smartness translated into implementing the West Coast Offense, easily the most confusing offense a low talented team can implement.


His key strategic mistake: Up was down, left was right. Greg Brown is on the sidelines, Brian Cabral is in the booth, and Eric Bienemy is caught in the middle. We want to run the ball, go no huddle, then switch midseason to shotgun, teach the defense how to tackle mid-season and then reassess which offense to use in 2013, all while rotating in every QB possible. Sound promising? Or like a train wreck of a science experiment gone wrong?


Bohn: Doesn't deserve a pass after 2 egregious mistakes in Hawk and Embree. His ability to find a solid, practical coach has been the biggest flaw, and it was about to continue after Embree. He was intent on hiring Butch Jones, a coach with no ties to the West Coast or affinity to CU, who had the character of a mob informant. Only luck and timing landed CU and Bohn MacIntyre.




My prediction isn't based on dissecting MacIntyre as a coach, planner, recruiter, etc. He's a straight shooter who has a plan. And that's what's been lacking: simplicity. Football is a simple game. It's not the science experiment we've seen the past 7 years. The downtrodden program is the result of just 3 people (Hawk, Embree, and Bohn) who had no business running CU football.


We have talent. Some may not be as impressed as others, but there are enough athletes on the team to win more games than many will predict. If you expect a 3 win season, let me ask, what would be a failure? A 2 win season? 1 win? If the delta between success and failure is 1 game, then there's a chance your math has a few flaws.


And lastly, if you are seeing a 3 win season on the horizon, my advice is to take up an additional hobby to divert your attention away from seemingly dreary and depressing situations. Can't imagine going the next 5 months expecting to win 25% of the games.


Here are the 6 wins:


1a. Spring Game
1b. Colorado State
2. Central Arkansas
3. Fresno State
4. Arizona
5. California
6. Utah
 
You are drunk and/or high.

I will bet you 1,000 we don't win 5 games.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
You highly underestimate Rich Rod and Arizona, and the talent at Cal.
Click to expand...

I, as with the rest of you who have responded to this, want some of what Gold is smoking. I'm somewhere in the middle here---I'd be happy with 3-4 wins, and thats probably a reasonable ceiling. I expect to win the first two games, and I think a repeat of last year could be in the cards if we don't beat CSU. (In my opinion, the season went south on that brilliant bootleg call on 4th and an inch from EB). I think we beat CSU, Central Arkansas, and steal a game or two the rest of the way (Fresno, Utah, Cal---just because its Dykes' first year, USC----who knows what kind of shape they'll be in when they show up here in late November? are all possibilities IMO)
 
:smokin::canabis::canabis::cheers::cheers::cheers::drink2::drink2::drink::drink::drink::drunk::drunk:
 
I agree with Gold on several aspects but disagree on the following points:
1.) I still have some faith in Bohn. He has done wonders for our BBall program (almost miraculous). And you can't just give all the credit to Tad because if you are prepared to bury him for his bad coaching hires you have to praise him for his good ones
2.) Hawk was one of the hottest coaches in all of college football when we hired him. That was a major win for CU on the national scale. That Hawk turned out to be more fluff than substance, few seemed to know that at the time so I don't blame him for the Hawk hire. We have been through this already but many signs suggest that Bohn was pushed into hiring Embree. But still bad hire without a doubt
3.) 2013 to me is not all about wins. It is about changing the culture. Finding a QB of the future, getting the fan base excited, having enough progress on both sides of the ball to give hope and to inspire recruits so we can have an improved 2014 class. It is about CU restoring its pride, playing to the final whistle and winning a few games and being more competitive in the ones we lose. Our margin of defeat last year was disgusting. If he can do all that, he can also help mend fences with some of the B4L that supported Embree and were calling for Bohn's head.

So those of us who are taking a more cautious approach to predicting victories next year are not destined for depression if HCMM can achieve the above.
 
I'm all in behind Mike Mac and we hired him because of his blueprint of success at SJSU, which is great. They started their first season 2-10 under him in a horrible conference. We will suck big time next year.
 
Lindsay-Lohan-Spits-Out-Drink.gif
 
buffedup said:
I'm all in behind Mike Mac and we hired him because of his blueprint of success at SJSU, which is great. They started their first season 2-10 under him in a horrible conference. We will suck big time next year.
Click to expand...

SJSU also had scholarship sanctions and played an very tough OOC schedule featuring @ #1 Alabama and @ Wisconsin
 
Biggest problems with the OP is not recognizing a) that football is even simpler when you have a lot more talent and b) a lot of people already have a lot of other hobbies.
 
Before any games have been kicked off - I think CU will be favored in one game on the Schedule. That will be Central Arkansas. I suspect the CSU game will be either a pick em or a slight edge to CSU. Same thing with Fresno. Then you get into the conference schedule, today we would not be favored in any game.

All that being said there are several winnable games on the schedule - CSU, C. Ark, Fresno, Cal, Arizona, Utah. I think we will be luck to win 3 of those.
 
First year coaches hired to rebuild a train wreck of a program, rarely win 5-6 games in year one. I'm hoping for 4 wins, but expecting 2 or less.
 
I think we can pull out 3-4 wins this season. I don't expect us to be competitive in every game but would like to see improvement across the board. Even last year with Embree at the helm, we could have easily won 4 games (CSU, Sac State, WSU, and Utah). Competent leadership can provide the little boost needed to win 3-4 but 6 wins is probably a stretch.
 
Everybody jumping on MacIntyre's dick right now, how are you so sure this is a good hire?
 
Jerry said:
Everybody jumping on MacIntyre's dick right now, how are you so sure this is a good hire?
Click to expand...

Why isn't it a good hire?

Reasons why:
-Experience turning around a program no one wins at shortly after scholarship sanctions...probably the most important one
-Won FBS assistant coach of the year at Duke when he was a DC
-Very organized and learned how to conduct practices from a HoF coach
 
Last edited:
Jerry said:
Everybody jumping on MacIntyre's dick right now, how are you so sure this is a good hire?
Click to expand...

Who is this everybody you speak of? I don't see everybody. I don't even see a majority. I see a whole lot of "show me on the field". I do see some people encouraged by an experienced college HC, experienced coordinators, practices that seem well designed and efficient.
 
Football games are won or lost based on explosive plays. Urban Meyer figured that out and had the statistics to back it up. Chip Kelley took that lesson to heart and took this concept to the next level.

Can we cause turnovers?

Can we score quickly with explosive plays?

Most plays are just window dressing. When I've been watching games the past few years, I've been focusing more and more on this. Almost invariably, when a team misses a wide open receiver for what would have been a touchdown (or he drops it), you can pretty much predict that team will lose if the game is anywhere close. Numerous examples from CU games the past few years (Washington State the past 2 years, Cal in 2011, etc.). I can also point to the Patriots-Giants games in recent Super Bowls. In the first one, if the Pats make the interception, they win. If the Giants don't get a playmaking catch on the following play, the Pats win. In the second one, if Brady makes a better throw or Welker makes a play, the Pats win. If the Giants don't hit that bomb down the sideline on the next series, the Pats win.

Football is a game of big moments and which team makes the big plays.

Great coaching can improve that by putting guys in position to make those plays. But do we have the playmakers on the roster needed to take advantage?

Not yet.

4 wins. (And I'm much closer to saying 3 than 5.)
 
If they can just look like a d1 football team this year it will be a remarkable turn around
 
Buffnik said:
Football games are won or lost based on explosive plays. Urban Meyer figured that out and had the statistics to back it up. Chip Kelley took that lesson to heart and took this concept to the next level.

Can we cause turnovers?

Can we score quickly with explosive plays?

Most plays are just window dressing. When I've been watching games the past few years, I've been focusing more and more on this. Almost invariably, when a team misses a wide open receiver for what would have been a touchdown (or he drops it), you can pretty much predict that team will lose if the game is anywhere close. Numerous examples from CU games the past few years (Washington State the past 2 years, Cal in 2011, etc.). I can also point to the Patriots-Giants games in recent Super Bowls. In the first one, if the Pats make the interception, they win. If the Giants don't get a playmaking catch on the following play, the Pats win. In the second one, if Brady makes a better throw or Welker makes a play, the Pats win. If the Giants don't hit that bomb down the sideline on the next series, the Pats win.

Football is a game of big moments and which team makes the big plays.

Great coaching can improve that by putting guys in position to make those plays. But do we have the playmakers on the roster needed to take advantage?

Not yet.

4 wins. (And I'm much closer to saying 3 than 5.)
Click to expand...
What happens if each of those instances DO happen in their respective games, is "Ghostbusters crossed-stream" type deal?
 
Honestly, I think 2 wins is the only reasonable guess. Beyond that I am hoping to be in more than half our games after half time and maybe be within a score late in a couple of those. That would be a pretty significant improvement, sad as it is to say.
 
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