Menu
What's new
By:
Filters
AllBuffs | Unofficial fan site for the University of Colorado at Boulder Athletics programs

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • Prime Time. Prime Time. Its a new era for Colorado football. Consider signing up for a club membership! For $20/year, you can get access to all the special features at Allbuffs, including club member only forums, dark mode, avatars and best of all no ads ! But seriously, please sign up so that we can pay the bills. No one earns money here, and we can use your $20 to keep this hellhole running. You can sign up for a club membership by navigating to your account in the upper right and clicking on "Account Upgrades". Make it happen!

Predicting the Field of 68 via RPI

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
This is actually a really great indicator, historically.

What I'm going to do is give any team that isn't from the Big 6 (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC) a -4 to their RPI number to reflect the way the committee tends to underseed them or is more likely to leave a Top 50 team out.

#12 SMU and #17 Louisville removed from consideration due to post-season bans.

We'll start with the 32 auto-bids for Conference Champions:

ACC: North Carolina
America East: Stony Brook
AAC: UConn or Memphis (Sunday final)
A-10: Saint Joseph's
A-Sun: Florida Gulf Coast
Big 12: Kansas
Big East: Seton Hall
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: UNC Asheville
Big Ten: Purdue or Michigan State (Sunday final)
Big West: Hawaii
Colonial: UNC Wilmington
C-USA: Middle Tennessee
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Buffalo
MEAC: Hampton
MVC: Northern Iowa
MWC: Fresno State
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson
OVC: Austin Peay
Pac-12: Utah or Oregon
Patriot: Holy Cross
SEC: Kentucky
Southern: Chattanooga
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: AR-Little Rock
SWAC: Southern
WAC: Cal State Bakersfield
WCC: Gonzaga

Potential bubble impact from:
AAC if Memphis wins
MAC if Buffalo wins
 
Last edited:
Based on what we assume will happen with the 32 auto-bids, here are the 36 at-large teams based on RPI:
  1. Virginia
  2. Villanova
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Xavier
  5. Utah
  6. Miami
  7. West Virginia
  8. Purdue
  9. Maryland
  10. Cal
  11. Texas A&M
  12. Duke
  13. Dayton
  14. Iowa State
  15. Indiana
  16. Baylor
  17. Arizona
  18. Texas
  19. Iowa
  20. Saint Bonaventure
  21. Notre Dame
  22. Oregon State
  23. Akron
  24. Colorado
  25. Texas Tech
  26. VCU
  27. Saint Mary's
  28. Princeton
  29. Providence
  30. San Diego State
  31. Wisconsin
  32. Cincinnati
  33. Wichita State
  34. Valparaiso
  35. USC
  36. Pittsburgh
First 4 Out
Monmouth
Hofstra
Florida
Michigan

Next 4 Out
Butler
Tulsa
Temple
Vanderbilt

Next-Next 4 Out
Georgia
South Carolina
Davidson
William & Mary

My guess is that Princeton will not get an at-large. Hard to justify the Ivy as a 2-bid league. Also, I can't imagine that Hofstra gets in as an at-large. Last, I have trouble seeing Akron selected.

Going away from straight RPI, I put Monmouth, Vanderbilt and Butler into the Dance as the replacements. I still need to think about that, though.

If a team did not make its way into this post or the conference tourney post, you should be able to forget about it making the Dance.
 
Last edited:
Stony Brook punched its ticket.

Makes for a better tourney with them in. NBA prospect in the post and athletic guards. They can beat someone.

(Post #1 updated)
 
Buffnik said:
Stony Brook punched its ticket.

Makes for a better tourney with them in. NBA prospect in the post and athletic guards. They can beat someone.

(Post #1 updated)
Click to expand...

Warney 43 and 10 today. If you can put up those type of numbers in a D1 conference tourney final at any level you gotta be pretty good.
 
Michigan got handled by Purdue. OP adjusted for their RPI drop.
 
Are we looking at 3 bids for the $ec, realistically?

I know espin would like to see 5 (or more) just to pad the coffers, and they'll make a fuss if the committee puts in fewer. Screw 'em both.
 
BehindEnemyLines said:
Are we looking at 3 bids for the $ec, realistically?

I know espin would like to see 5 (or more) just to pad the coffers, and they'll make a fuss if the committee puts in fewer. Screw 'em both.
Click to expand...

I don't know how you can go beyond 3 bids for the SEC this year. And the 3rd is sketchy.
 
Buffnik said:
I don't know how you can go beyond 3 bids for the SEC this year. And the 3rd is sketchy.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the conference just doesn't impress me this year. And it might be a bit telling since, iirc, the b12/$ec challenge games were not one sided like I thought they would be.

PS - I'm secretly pulling for a Dawg upset over Kantukee.
 
Arkansas - Little Rock won its conference semi. Final is Sunday, but the Sun Belt is a 1-bid league so I'd assume that despite ARL's RPI that would be Top 50 with a loss they'd end up getting left out. Better tourney if they make it, though. That's a 28-4 squad that won at SDSU and at Tulsa. They could beat somebody.
 
Middle Tennessee beats Old Dominion for the C-USA bid.

That's the result I wanted to see. Physically and athletically, Middle Tennessee looks like a Power 6 team. They're dangerous in the Dance.
 
UConn winning over Temple opens up a spot on the bubble for someone.

Could be Memphis if they win the AAC by beating Tulane and then taking down UConn.

Otherwise, someone else moving in. I'll update Post #2 in a minute once LiveRPI updates.
 
Fresno State winning the MWC probably just stole a bid. Would be hard to leave SDSU out of the Dance.
 
Akron losing puts them out there as a Top 40 RPI as a potential bubble team.
 
Stephen F. Austin won the Southland.

For the most part, the best teams are winning these 1-bid leagues. That helps the overall quality of the tournament a lot.

We really haven't seen those crazy runs with upset champs in any leagues this year other than Holy Cross. Dance is going to be fun.
 
Buffnik said:
I don't know how you can go beyond 3 bids for the SEC this year. And the 3rd is sketchy.
Click to expand...

Palm has South Carolina (really the only real possibility other than aggy and Kentucky) out. They played nobody OOC, and didn't do much in the SEC other than the road win they have over A&M. If I'm in that room, I can't put that weak a profile in the tournament.
 
ahoelsken said:
Palm has South Carolina (really the only real possibility other than aggy and Kentucky) out. They played nobody OOC, and didn't do much in the SEC other than the road win they have over A&M. If I'm in that room, I can't put that weak a profile in the tournament.
Click to expand...

If I'm taking a 3rd SEC team, it's Vanderbilt. Similar to Florida in that a lot of the SOS resume was built by losing to good teams in the non-conference. But they went 11-7 in the SEC while Florida went 9-9. Vandy's got better players than UF, too. I wouldn't even consider South Carolina.
 
Big game to watch today is the Memphis vs UConn matchup. A Memphis win bursts someone's bubble. That game may not be finished when the selection show starts.
 
St. Joe's and Arkansas-Little Rock punch their tickets.

Little Rock is a dangerous team for a high seed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top