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Punt Return Efficiency, FBS Win%, and Offensive Efficiency
- Thread starter Quattro
- Start date
If we could chart punt return fumbles, that would be the nail in the coffin of this discussion. Unless PRE includes that.
Here's the link....
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist2013
In having trouble finding the formula used though
The statistics show that the punt is almost irrelevant anymore http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-st...n-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble. Therefore punt return yardage would be irrelevant. The average points scored based on field position don't really change until you are inside the 10 yard line.
Me too. Somebody hit him up.
Got him.
All this said, we fans are more entertained when the team has a dynamic punt returner and having someone like that back there does put more pressure on the opposing team (always a good thing).
Ideally, I'd want to have it all. Hopefully a guy like Donovan Lee can become as trustworthy on making the right decision on what to catch, what to fair catch, and ball security. Because I think he's got the tools to be more of a weapon or threat that the opposition has to spend time game planning for.
Spruce is right in the middle of the Pac-12 in punt return yards, but I don't think ST Coordinators are spending any extra practice time prepping for him.
Ideally, I'd want to have it all. Hopefully a guy like Donovan Lee can become as trustworthy on making the right decision on what to catch, what to fair catch, and ball security. Because I think he's got the tools to be more of a weapon or threat that the opposition has to spend time game planning for.
Spruce is right in the middle of the Pac-12 in punt return yards, but I don't think ST Coordinators are spending any extra practice time prepping for him.
Think it's actually a -3% correlation for the bottom graph :lol:
Bufffan68
Club Member
So we should try to suck at PRE :lol:
So, like the discussion around kick offs, should we just eliminate all aspects of the game that don't correlate to the final score? A team would have the option to go for it on fourth down, or have the ball placed 40 yards away for the other team.
I think this result would need to account for fumbles or dynamic plays (which only happen occasionally) in a different way than just looking at punt return yardage. A player might call for a fair catch 4 times, and then on the fifth one bust a game changing return. Can you run the stats for games won if at least 6 points were earned by a punt return? Or, a fumble recovery?
I think this result would need to account for fumbles or dynamic plays (which only happen occasionally) in a different way than just looking at punt return yardage. A player might call for a fair catch 4 times, and then on the fifth one bust a game changing return. Can you run the stats for games won if at least 6 points were earned by a punt return? Or, a fumble recovery?
Statistics don't account for outlier occurrences. That is actually the point is to find what happens most of the time with some reasonable sense of confidence (mean, standard deviation). The argument then becomes why do coaches routinely punt the ball on 4th and short (3 yards or less) if the statistics show that by doing so doesn't do anything to improve their chances of winning and most likely decreases their chance of winning by providing the opposing team with another opportunity to score. If the opposing teams likelihood of scoring is the same from their own goal line up to your 10 yard line, why give them the ball instead of keeping it and trying for the first down?
BlackNGold
Club Member
If you look at the previous chart, it shows a range of ~2 to 3.9 for everything outside the redzone and only jumps to 4.8 until the 10. So basically the numbers say you are going to get a field goal most of the time you touch the ball. Inside the redzone that jumps to a touchdown occasionally, inside the 10 is a touchdown almost all of the time. Another way to say it is that if you give it to your opponent anywhere inside the 30 yard line, he scores a field goal 50%+ of the time, from the 30 to 50 it looks to be about 70% of the time, from inside the 50 to the 10 it is almost guaranteed to get at least a field goal. So in essence every time you give the ball back, they are probably going to get a field goal out of it. Turn it over inside your own 10 and it is a touchdown.
There are some coaches that always go for it on 4th down, and always go for an onside kick on their kick-offs, because that's what the statistics say you should do. So far, those coaches can only be found at the high school level and low level college (JUCOs, DIII, NAIA). Some of them are having a lot of success.
Sooner or later, a desperate AD in DII will give one of them a chance. If they have success, there will be others that follow. Then a desperate FCS AD will take the chance, then an FBS school, and finally a P5.
Not sure the strategy will ever enter the mainstream (or make it to the No Fun League), but some of us will probably live to see a P5 coach that never punts and always kicks off onside...
You can use stats to support or discredit any argument.
I found some stats that disagree with your statement.
buffs04
Well-Known Member
If you believe that good teams tend to do all things well because they have good players and good coaching then you also shouldn't believe that correlation between a particular statistic and winning % means that that factor is particularly important in determining whether or not a team wins.
FLounder
Think Positive and life will be Positive.
Rutgers has the most punt blocks since 2009. Whatever that means.
White_Rabbit
Well-Known Member
Where's that size doesn't determine production study tini?
http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/does-the-nfl-combine-matter-offense/
Far from a great model, but it gives a interesting look at some factors that affect production
He sends that same study to his love interests
I was sitting at the bar eating a slice of pie when a bell went off in my head. I draw the line in sports when the saber metric axis of evil intercepts what is good and we go down the slippery slope of evaluating sports performance based on statistics. I just don't get the point. And some of you guys wonder why your ex left you. So I'll throw you a curve. Why not just sit back and enjoy the game?
Or you know it provides another way to look at the game because it interests you