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Where’s the smart money in Colorado’s final Pac-12 home game?
Colorado’s final home game of the season is Saturday night. A surging Arizona Wildcats squad will come to Folsom to face off against the struggling Buffs, who have lost five of their last six games. Both teams are relatively young and unproven, meaning that some of Vegas’ lines have the potential to be a little bit off. I’ll walk you through the dos and don’ts for betting during Saturday afternoon’s game.
Tip 1: Be weary of the spread.
Despite losing their last two games, the Buffs covered against both UCLA and Oregon State. Colorado seems to be on a roll against the spread, but Arizona has been a spread-covering machine this season. The Wildcats are an astounding 8-1 against the spread, while the Buffs are only 5-3-1. Both teams have done a good job at covering in 2023, but betting against Arizona to cover has been really risky business this year. The spread for Saturday’s game is set at around 10 points. That seems like a very attainable goal for Colorado, but the stats and history say otherwise. If you’re going to bet the Buffs to cover, do it at your own risk.
Tip 2: Bet Arizona to score less than 31.5 points.
Colorado’s defense has been great these last two weeks. Defensive coordinator Charles Kelly and his group have outperformed expectations, holding ranked opponents to under 30 points each of the last two weeks. Bet on Kelly and the Buffs defensive to keep their momentum going. CU proved that they can hold their own against the run game up front against Oregon State and the Buffs secondary is loaded with talent. Travis Hunter, Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig and Shilo Sanders should make life difficult for Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita. Draft Kings currently has the odds of Arizona scoring under 31.5 points at +100, which is a line I really like.
Tip 3: Travis Hunter anytime touchdown looks like a good bet.
If I had to bet on any Buff to find his way into the end zone on Saturday, it’d be Travis. Hunter has been on an absolute tear on offense since coming back from his liver injury, scoring three touchdowns in as many games since returning to the field. Travis has clearly shown that he has a knack for finding the end zone, so why not throw a couple bucks on it? Hunter has absolutely balled out at Folsom this season, as every single touchdown he has has scored this season has been in Boulder. Hopefully Travis can give Buffs Nation a little going away present in Colorado’s final home game.
Tip 4: Bet the under.
I feel like a broken record saying that Colorado fans should bet the under for the third week in a row, but I haven’t been wrong yet (although I’d be happy to eat crow if the Buffs scored more than 20 points). The under has hit in both of the Buffs’ games since coming back from the bye and this week looks as though it won’t be any different. Colorado’s offense is in absolute shambles with their offensive line completely imploding and the current Sean Lewis/Pat Shurmur play calling drama. It’s hard to believe that Colorado is going to have a good offensive performance. That poor offense paired with the Buffs’ seemingly surging defense are a good recipe for the under of 54.5 points to hit.
Tip 5: Bet to score over 10.5 points in the first half.
Am I crazy for thinking that Colorado can actually have a good performance coming out the gates? Perhaps, but I’ve had enough of these boring first halves. Maybe betting on the Buffs to perform up to expectations in the first thirty minutes of football can help will them into playing better. The line for Colorado scoring over 10.5 points in the first half is currently set at +114 on Draft Kings, which I think isn’t too shabby. Please Pat Shurmur, throw me a bone. I want to see some real scoring on Sunday and maybe the betting gods can help us manifest that.
BONUS: Ralphie’s first run will be over 40 yards.
Is this an actual line? No, but it really should be. It’s no secret that Ralphie VI has had her ups and downs in 2023. After her stellar performance in week two against Nebraska, VI has been on a cold streak. She has had trouble cracking the 40 yard line this season, but I think this week will be different. Ralphie surpassed the 50 yard line before last week’s game and I think she’ll do it again on Saturday. The Folsom Field crowd will be fired up for the final game of the season in Boulder and I think that VI will rise to the occasion. I’m absolutely hammering the over of 40 yards (that I admittedly set myself) for Ralphie’s first run of the day.
by RylandScholes
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