RSSBot
News Junkie
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Colorado’s men have no room for error
Bracketology: “the activity of predicting the participants in and outcomes of the games in a sports tournament, especially the NCAA college basketball tournament.” via Oxford Dictionary.
We’ve finally made it to the end of February, which means that the NCAA Tournament is fast approaching. Since the regular season has almost come to a close, we now have a solid picture of who will be dancing in March or not. Despite that, the fate of Colorado’s men remains murky when it comes to March Madness.
The Buffs, who sit at a 17-9 record and fifth place within the Pac-12, have undoubtedly had a down year. Colorado was a lock to make the tournament before the season started, but that’s no longer the case. Tad Boyle and has squad have struggled to build themselves a strong tournament resume, only going 1-5 in Q1 games and 6-4 in the second quadrant.
On top of that, the Buffs’ only Q1 win (over Washington in Seattle) is in danger of falling to a Q2 win, as the Huskies’ NET has been bouncing between 70 and 80 all season. One of the Buffs’ Q2 losses will probably fall to Q3, as Arizona State’s NET sits at 134 and they play #4 Arizona and #21 Wazzu in the next week. If the Sun Devils get blown out by the Wildcats or Cougs, they’ll almost certainly drop to the third quadrant, which puts an even bigger blemish on Colorado’s resume.
In short, Colorado’s tournament hopes are hanging in the balance. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Buffs in the next four out in his most recent bracketology. Meanwhile, CBS has Colorado in their last four in, having to play Nebraska for the right to make it to the tournament as an 11 seed (which would be absolutely INSANE). The Buffs are one of the most bubbliest bubble teams and really need to impress to go dancing.
Colorado has five games remaining on their regular season schedule and they need to make them all count. Essentially, the Buffs need to go undefeated to close the season if they want to make it to the NCAAT, or go 4-1 at the bare minimum. Thankfully, three of those five games are against Q3 opponents, while they have one Q1 and Q2 game each.
Two Pac-12 teams have likely already punched their ticket to the tournament, Arizona and Washington State, but a third has yet to emerge. This is largely because the Pac-12 has been pretty bad this year, there’s just no other way to put it. However, the projection that the conference will only send two teams to the tournament seems like a reach. A Power 5 conference only sending two teams to the tournament is completely unprecedented, which is why I think we’ll see a third Pac-12 team dancing in March.
The two candidates for that third tournament spot are the Buffs and Oregon Ducks, making their Q1 matchup in Eugene on March 7th an absolute must win. If Colorado wins, they finally snag a solid Q1 win and likely will barely side into the tournament with an at-large bid. If the Buffs lose, Oregon will leapfrog them in the bubble picture and send Colorado to the NIT.
TL;DR, the Buffaloes’ fate is in their own hands. If they can go undefeated and beat Oregon to end their regular season, it seems more likely than not that Colorado will make it to the tournament. However, if the Buffs mess up and lose to Oregon State or Stanford, things are going to get very stressful on selection day. Only time will tell if Colorado can go on a run to make it to the dance, but they certainly have the capability and talent to pull it off.
As for Colorado’s women, their ticket to the dance has already been punched. JR Payne and her squad are currently just fighting for seeding in the tournament. After a tough week where the Buffs suffered two straight losses to Oregon State and Utah, Colorado’s projected seed has fallen a bit. ESPN has the Buffs as a three seed in their most recent bracketology, falling from the coveted one seed in the Portland 4 Region.
Being the highest seed possible is very important, there’s no denying that, but the Buffs should be okay as long as they don’t fall below a four seed in the tournament. Seeds four and above get to host their bracket group at their home arena, meaning that Colorado and three other teams would play in Boulder if they maintain their three seed. That home floor advantage in the NCAAT would be invaluable for the Buffs and they need to ensure that they get it.
The Buffs could potentially take back their one seed after this weekend as well. If Colorado beats both UCLA and USC on the road this weekend, they’ll very likely overtake Iowa or Stanford as a one seed. Even they they go 1-1, they could still move up to a two seed. The Buffs just need to do their best to make sure they leave Los Angeles with at least one win to stay above a four seed.
Barring a pretty major collapse, the Buffs will be hosting games during the tournament. Despite their two recent losses, things are looking good for Colorado’s women. Hosting tournament games in your arena is a great spot to be in. The Buffs are bringing March Madness to our backyard, so it’s time to get excited.
by RylandScholes
Continue reading...