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It’s a rough week
We’re back with more winners! Last week’s columns also made you money, and we are batting pretty well this season. This week’s board is BRUTAL, so we are proceeding with caution.
Matt’s plays (YTD 10-4):
Tulsa vs. Navy (Navy +5.5; O/U 45):
In their 4 games this year Navy has scored 7, 13, 23 (in overtime), and 10 points. That offense has struggled this year, and they are 106th in rush yards per attempt (3.6 ypa). That is an alarming stat for a service academy which runs the ball over 50 times a game.
However, a matchup against Tulsa could be just what the doctor ordered. Tulsa ranks 106th in the nation allowing 194 rush yards per game. Ole Miss, Cincinnati, and Wyoming all had success against the Golden Hurricanes running the ball. I’ll bet Navy will as well. If Navy can run that means they can play at their pace and limit possessions. I am banking on a couple 10-minute drives from the Midshipmen to make this a short and low scoring game. Give me the under.
Pick: Under 45
Texas vs. Oklahoma (OU +7; O/U 65):
It sounds like Quinn Ewers will return for this game, and in his limited action against Alabama he looked like a true gunslinger. Even without Ewers, though, the Longhorns offense has been explosive the last 3 weeks and have scored at least 34 in everyone of those games.
Oklahoma’s D had some real issues last week against TCU, and I find Texas’ offense to be just as potent. The Sooners are still averaging 37 ppg over the season, even after their worst output of the year last week (24 points). Dillon Gabriel’s health is a question mark here, but I still trust them to work up a game plan which can be successful against a UT side that allowed 7 touchdowns to Texas Tech.
In recent years this game has consistently been a shootout. Since 2011, the average total in this game has been about 72 points combined. I trust both quarterbacks, even if Gabriel site, and running games here to have plenty of success. I’ll enjoy this high-flying football game as a fan and win money while they’re doing it. Over is the play.
Pick: Over 65
BYU vs. Notre Dame (ND -3.5; O/U 51):
With the last pick, we’ll head to Vegas for a fun neutral site location for this matchup. I’ll just say it up front: I think BYU is a fraudulent team. Somehow, they are ranked 16th in the country despite only one quality win against Baylor. Oregon blew the doors off them, and they let a bad Utah State team hang around all game last week. QB Jaren Hall is banged up as well as his two top targets for the Cougars.
Meanwhile the Irish have been not bad since their shocking defeat to Marshall. They have started to heat up a little bit offensively too. Plus, coming off of a bye for this game will be huge for the Irish. I think Notre Dame is just a superior team to BYU at this point in the season, and I feel safe in laying the number here
Pick: Notre Dame -3.5
Jack’s Picks (YTD: 9-4)
Louisville vs. Virginia (LOU-3, O/U 50.5)
This is a must-win game for Scott Satterfield to save his job. Virginia is dreadful this year, on all sides of the ball, and the Cardinals have SO much more talent on the offensive side of the ball. Malik Cunningham is the best player on the field this game, period, and he’s going to have the ball a lot.
Louisville is the easy play here.
Pick: Louisville - 3
Wisconsin vs. Northwestern (WISC - 10.5, o/u 44.5)
A lot of eyes will be on this game, as Wisconsin will have a new head coach in Jim Leonhard. That usually means a little bit more energy will be on the Badgers side than normal. We’ll see if that holds true, but I would bet on some juice on the Wisconsin side, especially after they were pantsed by Illinois last week.
On the other end, Northwestern has been on a tailspin. They beat Nebraska, and that was the last great part of the season. The offense has returned to their moribund ways and Ryan Hilinski is not enough to do it all. Northwestern needs to fire their OC (again), and the defense is not as salty as it once was.
I expect Wiscy to roll here.
The Pick: WISC - 10.5
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (-26.5, o/u 65)
Call it what you want, I’m fading MSU all year. They are not very good.
The Pick: Ohio State -26.5
by Jack Barsch
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