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The Buffaloes look to move to 3-1 with a win over the Bears
This Game and History:
This Saturday night, Colorado kicks off its first conference game in the Big 12, and who better to face than the Baylor Bears? Last year, Baylor went just 2-7 in conference play and hasn’t shown much improvement in such a short time. Colorado holds a 9-7 all-time record over Baylor, but we haven’t seen this matchup since 2010. The projected point spread has Colorado as two-point favorites, but I expect momentum to carry over for Colorado. With this game being at home, I predict a six- to ten-point win, giving the Buffaloes a 2-0 record at Folsom to start the year.
What To Look For From The Buffs:
Last week, Colorado bounced back with a decisive win over in-state rival Colorado State. We saw improvements on the offensive line, a fantastic defensive performance, and the passing game doing what it does best. This week will be about sustaining that improvement in key areas on both offense and defense.
The biggest improvement last week came from the offensive line. Colorado’s line struggled all last season and even in the first two games of this year. It was a welcome sight to see Shedeur Sanders have ample time to step up in the pocket and deliver on-time throws for the first time since last year. This success needs to carry over into conference play, and Baylor will be the perfect test for this unit. Baylor sends a lot of disguised blitzes by loading the box, which has been a challenge for Colorado. This week, we’ll need to see Shedeur making appropriate checks at the line, the offensive line communicating effectively, and more diverse play-calling, possibly with designed quarterback roll-outs to change the pace.
Defensively, we’ve already seen significant improvement from this unit. In their last six quarters, they’ve allowed just nine points. Colorado has been using man coverage confidently, taking advantage of improved cornerback play from D.J. McKinney and Preston Hodge. McKinney, an Oklahoma State transfer, has made a huge impact this year. He has allowed only 43 yards on eight receptions on 16 targets. Remarkably, he’s played a team-high 211 snaps, leads the team with 21 tackles and is first in the conference with four pass breakups. Hodge, the nimble slot corner, also made a noticeable impact, hauling in an interception last week. He was the 8th-highest-rated player in FBS for pass coverage last season (according to PFF) while at Liberty, and his success has carried over. With Hodge, Hunter, and McKinney playing well, Colorado’s secondary is becoming a dangerous unit.
What To Look For From The Bears:
Baylor enters this game after a 31-3 win over Air Force but struggled significantly in the first half against one of the worst FBS teams. At halftime, Baylor led just 6-3, and it wasn’t until the second half that they finally got their run game going. The defense helped with multiple forced fumbles, giving the offense good field position. Backup quarterback Sawyer Robertson stepped in for the injured Dequan Finn and played well. It’s still unclear whether Finn or Robertson will start this week, so here’s a breakdown of what to expect from each.
If Dequan Finn plays, I expect Baylor’s offense to resemble what we saw a couple of weeks ago against Utah. This version leans heavily on the read option—more than you’d expect in 2024. Baylor avoids the deep passing game, focusing almost exclusively on option runs, short passes, screens, RPOs, and a solid gap-scheme run game. While fast, this offense is limited in its ability to fool a defense. Finn doesn’t threaten defenses vertically and has had serious accuracy issues this season. His inability to stretch the defense will allow Colorado to jam receivers at the line, play man coverage, and load the box. Baylor’s success with Finn will likely depend on Colorado’s ability to disrupt his timing and prevent him from stepping up in the pocket.
If Sawyer Robertson plays, the offense will have a slightly different feel. The quick game will still be a staple, but Robertson is more accurate and can threaten the intermediate to deep passing game. Robertson played solid football in the second half against Air Force, and I expect him to start given his success. Baylor might be delaying their announcement to give Colorado more to prepare for, but that’s just speculation. Robertson made good reads in the quick game, and considering his success on advanced RPO reads, I think he’ll be Baylor’s starter on Saturday.
Baylor’s defense focuses on the pass rush, utilizing stunts and generating pressure from all angles, and they’ve had success doing so. Notably, they’ve been excellent at forcing fumbles. However, this defense as a whole doesn’t worry me much. They gave up 23 points in the first half last week but played better in the second half—though, to be fair, it might have been because they tossed Utah’s star quarterback, Cam Rising, directly into the Gatorade cart. Rising was sidelined with a hand injury, and not much happened on either side of the ball after that. I expect Colorado’s offense to have a big day—don’t be surprised if the Buffs score 30 points or so.
Prediction:
Colorado 30
Baylor 20
by Jacob.Thompson
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