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The Buffaloes travel to Orlando to take on UCF
This Saturday Colorado will travel to Orlando to face UCF, who currently boasts a perfect 3-0 record. The Buffaloes, sitting at 3-1, need a win to move to 2-0 in Big 12 play. UCF enters as a 14-point favorite, largely due to their dominant rushing attack. Colorado will attempt to establish their passing game, despite tough road conditions and unpredictable hurricane weather. Here’s a breakdown of what each team can do to win.
What Colorado Needs to Do to Win
Colorado’s offense has been powered by Shedeur Sanders, who racked up 1,340 passing yards and 11 touchdowns through four games. Colorado’s passing attack is one of the best in the country and they’ll need to be efficient against UCF’s secondary. UCF struggled in their last game against TCU, giving up over 400 passing yards along with four touchdowns. This presents an opportunity for Colorado to exploit UCF’s defense, weather permitting. We all know how diverse and deadly this passing game can be, but will Shedeur have time to throw this week?
UCF’s head coach, Gus Malzahn, has emphasized the importance of disrupting Sanders’ timing and applying pressure. While UCF’s pass rush has been inconsistent, the Knights will need to fix those issues quickly to challenge Sanders. If Colorado’s passing game can get into rhythm—using quick throws and avoiding turnovers in the challenging weather conditions—they’ll have a strong chance to take advantage of UCF’s vulnerabilities. Like so many other weeks, the key will be slowing down the pass rush or alternatively Shedeur’s ability to stay alive to make plays in the pocket.
On the defensive side of the ball, Colorado must stop the run without overcommitting. The Buffs will face another good rushing attack this week which may force Colorado to move away from nickel defense and use heavier boxes up front to counter. Utilizing heavier boxes was a necessary change the Buffs made after Nebraska’s 100+ yard rushing performance and we saw improvement against Baylor. But CU shouldn’t sell out against the run and leave their secondary exposed. This is what we saw in last week’s game against Baylor. Colorado’s defense stacked the box, leaving the cornerbacks in man coverage with little help. The Buffs have a strong secondary, but they’re vulnerable in man-to-man situations if they sell out against the run.
UCF’s run game is sensational, the play-action offense led by dual-threat QB KJ Jefferson is the most dangerous thing about this team. Jefferson has not only rushed effectively this season, but he also showed downfield accuracy in the TCU game. Colorado’s front seven must remain disciplined in containing the run while finding ways to implement zone coverages to force Jefferson into difficult reads. Colorado’s defense has shown flashes of being able to contain the run and pass, but rarely at the same time.
What UCF Needs to Do to Win
UCF’s offensive success relies on their ability to control the game on the ground. The Knights rank near the top of the Big 12 in rushing yards, thanks to an offensive line that consistently opens space. UCF’s ground game is led by RJ Harvey, who has rushed for 444 yards and 8 touchdowns through three games.
If UCF establishes the run early, they can force Colorado into man coverage which is where the Buffs were exposed last week. UCF can then capitalize on predictable defensive sets through play-action and eventually the passing attack. Last week we saw the Knights’ offense put up 28 points in the second half and this was exactly how they eventually got their offense going after a slow start. Coincidentally this is also the trap that Colorado fell into last week against Baylor. Let’s hope they learned their lesson.
In their thrilling 35-34 comeback win against TCU, UCF exploited man coverage over and over again to erase a 21-point deficit in just the second half. KJ Jefferson threw pass after pass towards Kobe Hudson, who now may be their standout receiver and biggest threat. Hudson had a phenomenal second half, pulling in six receptions for 145 yards and two touchdowns by the end of the game. UCF will look to leverage their playmakers, like Harvey, Hudson, and Jefferson to attack Colorado’s defense in one-on-one matchups if Colorado’s defense remains predictable and stays in man coverage all day.
Prediction
While UCF is favored by 14 points, this game has the potential to be closer than expected. Colorado’s passing attack will test UCF’s secondary, keeping the game competitive. The weather conditions and UCF’s potent rushing offense could be decisive factors. Expect UCF to control the tempo with their ground game, while Colorado makes enough plays to keep things interesting. In the end, UCF’s offensive balance could be the difference.
With Decent Weather:
Colorado 31, UCF 27
With Bad Weather:
Colorado 17, UCF 24
by Jacob.Thompson
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