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The Buffs could announce themselves as Big 12 contenders.
This Saturday Colorado will take on the #18 Kansas State Wildcats at Folsom Field. Both teams will be battling to move to 5-1, but unlike the Wildcats, Colorado will be looking to remain undefeated in Big 12 play. Maintaining an unbeaten record in the conference is even more critical than their overall record, as the Buffs are looking to compete for the conference title.
With Colorado coming off a big-time 27-point win in a game where they were expected to lose by double digits, this could very well be their biggest game of the year. This matchup carries major polling implications, as the winner’s national ranking will undoubtedly skyrocket. Colorado has faced plenty of criticism regarding their ability to compete against ranked opponents. This game offers an opportunity to put that narrative to rest and establish themselves as a top-three team in the entire Big 12.
In this article, I’ll break down what the Buffs need to accomplish to move to 3-0 in conference play and provide a glimpse into Kansas State’s squad and performance this season.
Is Kansas State as Good as They Say?
This week, we need to start by talking about the opposing team, because what I’ll be discussing will influence how Colorado can win this ballgame. First things first, yes, I’d say Kansas State is about as good as their ranking suggests. However, with Colorado playing at home, I believe these teams are more comparable than most might realize.
While Kansas State has proven to be a strong team, it’s worth noting they are only two games removed from being steamrolled 38-9 by BYU. We need to see more from Kansas State before fully buying into the idea that they’re a true threat for the Big 12 title. Records and rankings aside, let’s take an in-depth look at the Wildcats and analyze what’s gone both right and wrong for them in their first two conference games.
Their Strengths
There’s no denying that Kansas State has talent all over the field, on both sides of the ball. Going into this game, it’s hard to say whether Colorado should be more concerned about the Wildcats’ offensive explosiveness or the star talent they boast in the secondary.
This Kansas State offense is fast and versatile. Like many teams today, they’ve found speed at the quarterback position with Avery Johnson, and they feature two lightning-fast ball carriers. One of these running backs will be familiar to Buffs fans: former Buff transfer Dylan Edwards. While Edwards has taken a step forward this offseason, the Wildcats’ primary back is DJ Giddens, who is just shy of 700 all-purpose yards this season and is coming off a 209-yard performance against Oklahoma State. The most dangerous aspect of this offense, though, is their play-calling. First-year offensive coordinator Conor Riley is quick to adapt in-game and provides plenty of misdirection that often makes defenses look foolish. Expect them to lean on play-action and motion to isolate mismatches in Colorado’s secondary.
Speaking of secondaries, Kansas State’s unit has been called the best in the Big 12. Last week against Oklahoma State, this group looked every bit the part, coming away with two game-changing interceptions. They get quality play from every position in the backfield, so Shedeur Sanders will need to be at his best. If Colorado can’t create separation or Shedeur doesn’t have time in the pocket, it could be a long night.
Their Weaknesses
Kansas State is a well-rounded team, but they aren’t without flaws. One area that stands out is quarterback Avery Johnson. He has the tools to be a dangerous dual-threat quarterback, but his development as a passer still needs work. Johnson’s ability to threaten defenses with his legs is undeniable, and he’s shown flashes of accuracy in the passing game. However, his consistency remains a concern. In the last two games, Johnson has thrown three interceptions, and that’s something Kansas State simply cannot afford against a team like Colorado. The Buffs’ offense is too potent to give away extra possessions or short fields. Kansas State’s coaching staff will likely emphasize ball security and focus on keeping Shedeur and Colorado’s offense off the field as much as possible.
How Can Colorado Win?
Both teams are coming off a bye week, so neither squad will have an extra rest advantage. However, the week off has allowed Colorado to get healthy, as Shilo Sanders and Dallen Hayden will return to the field on Saturday night. It’s also helped the Buffs build two weeks of hype for this soldout 8:15 PM kickoff.
So, what does Colorado need to do to secure a win and take the next step toward becoming a true contender in the Big 12?
The key for Colorado will be mitigating Kansas State’s big plays—whether through the air or on the ground. I expect the Wildcats to use plenty of pre-snap motion out of the backfield, hoping to exploit Colorado’s man coverage. If Kansas State establishes the run early, it could be a long night for the Buffs’ defense. Once the Wildcats force Colorado to focus on stopping the run, they’ll likely start incorporating designed rollouts for Johnson and play-action passes to hit their tight ends at the second level.
If Colorado wants to control the tempo and be the aggressor, they’ll need to stop Kansas State’s run game at the source. While I believe Colorado has the personnel to play physical football, it will come down to the coaching staff ensuring that the right game plan is in place to neutralize the Wildcats’ backfield. The defensive line, in particular, will need to win the battle in the trenches and set the tone early.
Offensively, Shedeur Sanders needs to continue playing at an elite level. The Buffs’ offense has shown it can score points quickly, but against a tough Kansas State secondary, they’ll need to avoid turnovers and stay disciplined. If Shedeur can spread the ball around and keep Kansas State’s defense on its heels, Colorado should be able to generate enough offense to stay in the game.
Prediction
This game is going to be close, and with both teams hungry for a statement win, it could come down to a handful of plays. Kansas State’s rushing attack and secondary give them a slight edge, but with Colorado playing at home and having momentum after a huge win last week, the Buffs should be right in it and may even win.
Colorado 28
Kansas State 30
by Jacob.Thompson
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