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That’s right, four wins at the Big 12 Tournament are necessary for Colorado’s at-large bid. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
A lot will have to go right for Tad Boyle’s Buffs
Fresh off a 13-point blowout win over the UCF Knights, the Colorado Buffaloes (10-15 overall, 1-13 in Big 12 play) have all the momentum on their side.
The timing couldn’t be better. It’s late February, the top seeds are taking shape, the bubble teams are making their cases, and there’s just enough time for someone off the radar to barge their way into the conversation.
Last year, it was NC State. Two years before it was Indiana. Look at those teams now: the Wolf Pack are 10-15, same as the Buffs, while Hoosiers head coach Mike Woodson decided to retire rather than face the hot seat, same as the Bu—
Those teams made the tournament as at-large bids. Colorado can still do that, but it’s going to be an uphill battle. They’re in the midst of a brutal Big 12 schedule that will only get harder in the next few weeks.
Their remaining schedules goes as follows: at Iowa State (#8 in NET), vs. Baylor (#28), vs. Kansas (#15), at Kansas State (#73 but climbing fast), at Texas Tech (#7) and vs. TCU (#76).
The most likely outcome is a 1-19 or 2-18 final record. However, if you extrapolate CU’s last 1 game and project that six games further, they would be 16-15 overall and 7-13 in the Big 12 with six Q1 wins, including the Maui upset over then-#2 (and now unranked) UConn Huskies.
Maybe that doesn’t get them into the tournament, but that’s before we get to the conference tournament. Assuming the Buffs finish as a 9-seed or worse, they will have a chance to win as many as five games in Kansas City.
Let’s say the Buffs are white-hot and winners of their last seven. They would be favorites in the first and maybe even the second round, where a talented but inconsistent team like Kansas, BYU or Baylor would be waiting for them.
If they get into the third round, anything can happen. And if they win that one, surely they can win another. Looking at the tally, that’s 20 wins for the Buffs, another Tad Boyle masterclass, and suddenly they’re booking tickets to Dayton, Ohio for the First Four.
We don’t have to think much about that hypothetical 21st win. That would be the Big 12 Championship and cutting down those nets would mean an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. But that would be a bit too ridiculous for this thought exercise.
So, is it possible for the Buffs to make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference title? Yes, but even one (1) loss between now at the Big 12 final would derail Tad Boyle and the Colorado Buffaloes.
by Sam Metivier
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