Rank our PAC 12 games in order of difficulty?

[rialto]

Based on what I know about the PAC 12 teams, I would rank our conference schedule, in order of difficulty, as follows:

Probable wins:
1) Utah home
2) ASU home
3) Utah road

Toss-up Games:
4) Wash St home
5) Oregon home
6) Oregon St home
7) ASU road
8) USC road

Probable losses:
9) Stanford home
10) Cal home
11) Washington home
12) Arizona home
13) Oregon road
14) Oregon St road
15) UCLA road

Very Likely losses:

16) Stanford road
17) Cal road
18) Arizona road

So, if we can win the first three, three of my five toss-up games and one of the probable losses, we go 7-11 in the PAC 12. I don't see much better than this conference record and could see worse, maybe as bad as 4-12.

Given I recently noticed how knowledgable his board is for college basketball (Cville and Goose are unbelievably good), am I being too optimistic, pessimistic or about right?

 

[FightCu1414]

I agree with you on the most part, but I think you are overrating Stanford. I think they are a toss up game at home. Even though we are struggling so far this year, so is the entire Pac 12.

 

[Tractor]

The rest of the PAC12 may be (read: is) bad, but we aren't particularly good either. Hell, I'd say we're about 2 steps above terrible, and a pretty long way from being average.

The only game I'm sure we can win is Utah at home.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Based on what I know about the PAC 12 teams, I would rank our conference schedule, in order of difficulty, as follows:

Probable wins:
1) Utah home
2) ASU home
3) Utah road

Toss-up Games:
4) Wash St home
5) Oregon home
6) Oregon St home
7) ASU road
8) USC road

Probable losses:
9) Stanford home
10) Cal home
11) Washington home
12) Arizona home
13) Oregon road
14) Oregon St road
15) UCLA road

Very Likely losses:

16) Stanford road
17) Cal road
18) Arizona road

So, if we can win the first three, three of my five toss-up games and one of the probable losses, we go 7-11 in the PAC 12. I don't see much better than this conference record and could see worse, maybe as bad as 4-12.

Given I recently noticed how knowledgable his board is for college basketball (Cville and Goose are unbelievably good), am I being too optimistic, pessimistic or about right?

Hmm tough question given the state of the Pac this year. I think you did a good job with the list. Utah and ASU are definitely in a class of their own at the bottom, but it gets extremely murky after that. I think you might be giving Stanford a little more credit than they're due, but it's difficult since somebody has to be placed there.

Right now if I had to do a Pac-12 power ranking, I'd do it like this:
1. Cal (10-3)
2. Arizona (9-4)
3. Washington (6-5)
4. Stanford (10-2)
5. Oregon State (10-2)
6. UCLA (7-5)
7. Oregon (9-3)
8. Washington State (8-4)
9. Colorado (7-4)
10. USC (5-8)
11. Arizona State (4-8)
12. Utah (3-9)

That was a brutal list to make. Honestly the toughest team to place was UCLA.

I had been thinking 9-9 was the best bet back when we were at least beating Georgia, winning (ugly) at Air Force, and not looking so bad against a good Wichita State sqaud. Given the last few games however, I'd have to guess 7-11 for the time being. Even with our poor play as of late, I don't think it's going to get too much worse than that given that the majority of this conference seems to be in the same boat as CU, or even worse.

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

I think we sweep Utah and Arizona State, get swept by Arizona and Washington and everything else is a toss up at that point

 

[rialto]

SECO - that's an interesting take and may be right on. Truthfully, we need to sweep Utah (for sure) and ASU, then let the chips fall where they may. My worry with this scenario is we have been so much better historically at home than on the road - we usually beat one or two teams we should not at home; whereas we have a history of losing to bad teams in conference on the road. If we can get 2 and especially 3 conference road wins (feasible with Utah, ASU and USC), that will go along way to gving us a shot at 0.500 in conference.

 

[CVilleBuff]

SECO - that's an interesting take and may be right on. Truthfully, we need to sweep Utah (for sure) and ASU, then let the chips fall where they may. My worry with this scenario is we have been so much better historically at home than on the road - we usually beat one or two teams we should not at home; whereas we have a history of losing to bad teams in conference on the road. If we can get 2 and especially 3 conference road wins (feasible with Utah, ASU and USC), that will go along way to gving us a shot at 0.500 in conference.

I think CU should be able to find a little more success on the road in the Pac-12. I don't necessarily trust this year's version of the Buffs much on the road, but in general the environments of the Pac-12 gyms are going to be much easier to play in than what we encountered in the Big XII. Even some of the bottom teams in the Big XII like Iowa State had 12,000 screaming fans, while that's very much going to be the exception to the rule in the Pac.

 

[rialto]

Great point - CU should be able to be more competitive on the road in the PAC 12. The crowd are far less hostile in the new league, except at Arizona and probably Washington, which are more similar to the Big 12.

BTW, imagine if CU were in the Big 12 this year. Who could we be confident CU could beat? Maybe TT at home?? I think we would get 2 or 3 wins were we still in the Big 12 this year.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Great point - CU should be able to be more competitive on the road in the PAC 12. The crowd are far less hostile in the new league, except at Arizona and probably Washington, which are more similar to the Big 12.

BTW, imagine if CU were in the Big 12 this year. Who could we be confident CU could beat? Maybe TT at home?? I think we would get 2 or 3 wins were we still in the Big 12 this year.

Arizona is difficult, but even the atmosphere down in Tucson rarely compares to what we encountered at places like KU. Washington, Wazzu and I imagine Oregon can be pretty tough when their teams are doing well, but again, it isn't what we faced at Mizzou or KSU. Stanford's Maples Pavilion has had its moments. Both LA schools are dead atmospheres -- USC had the lowest attendance of any school in the Pac last year. Oregon State is what you'd imagine, and we won't need to worry about Utah or Arizona State being raucous atmospheres for at least the next few years. There's a real opportunity for CU to make the Keg known as arguably the toughest place to play in the Pac-12. We've certainly got a ways to go in developing a 'basketball atmosphere', but we're ascending quickly and making good progress.

It would be brutal for the Buffs in the Big XII this year. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Iowa State (and Nebraska if we want to throw them in for old times sake) would be about our only shots at wins. KU and KSU aren't what they were last year, but Baylor's cheating has the Bears stronger than ever, and Mizzou is scary good this year as well. To put it in perspective, Mizzou (we'll call them the #2 team in the Big XII) beat Cal (the best team in the Pac-12 as of now) 92-53!

 

[GoBuffs!!]

God, I hope we dont lose against Cal and Stanford, that would make for a crappy road trip to san fran for my wife's birthday present

 

[rialto]

Watched K-State play Long Beach St last night. KSU, now 10-1 with its only loss to WVU, simply strangled a good Beach team with its defense. I love the physicality of KSU's players, as well as the team's great defense. Frank Martin's team plays very disciplined basketball, regardles of his sideline banter.

Jamar Samuels (Top 100 or so recruit from DC, good offers), Rodney McGruder (Top 100 recruit recruit form DC, great offers), Will Spradling (Kansas kid, being compared to Stevie Blake), Jordan Henriquez (Top 100 recruit, from NYC, great offers), Martavious Irving (Top 150 recruit from Florida, good offers), Angel Rodriquez ( Top 4 player in Florida, great offers), Shane Southwell (Top 150 recruit, NYC), etc.

How does KSU possibly get numerous high profile recruits from DC, NYC and Florida? My guess is lots shady recruiting/$$ to aggregate that talent in Manhattan, Kansas. But the truth is that cheating pays off in wins and, without Burks and Higgins, I think KSU would own us this year - we would be lucky to score 50 points in a game.

 

[MtnBuff]

Watched K-State play Long Beach St last night. KSU, now 10-1 with its only loss to WVU, simply strangled a good Beach team with its defense. I love the physicality of KSU's players, as well as the team's great defense. Frank Martin's team plays very disciplined basketball, regardles of his sideline banter.

Jamar Samuels (Top 100 or so recruit from DC, good offers), Rodney McGruder (Top 100 recruit recruit form DC, great offers), Will Spradling (Kansas kid, being compared to Stevie Blake), Jordan Henriquez (Top 100 recruit, from NYC, great offers), Martavious Irving (Top 150 recruit from Florida, good offers), Angel Rodriquez ( Top 4 player in Florida, great offers), Shane Southwell (Top 150 recruit, NYC), etc.

How does KSU possibly get numerous high profile recruits from DC, NYC and Florida? My guess is lots shady recruiting/$$ to aggregate that talent in Manhattan, Kansas. But the truth is that cheating pays off in wins and, without Burks and Higgins, I think KSU would own us this year - we would be lucky to score 50 points in a game.

I would expect that your guess about "recruiting connections" that are connected with $$$ wouldn't be to far off. You also have to remember that as bad as Manhattan KS looks to us if you are a kid coming out of the slums on DC or NYC or even the bad areas of a lot of Florida cities it looks like paradise. Clean streets, low crime, etc.

A bigger factor for KSU is that they have won enough to be credible to a lot of these kids. Lots of these players don't look at college as a place to get an education, they look at it as a place to win a bunch of games, go to the tourney, get on TV, and have a shot at the pros. KSU has done that for guys recently so it makes it easier for them to sell the next group on coming in.

It also helps them a huge amount that their academic standards as a school are basically met if you can sign your name on the LOI with minimal assistance. Lots of these kids are coming out of terrible schools and wouldn't last a semester at a school like CU if they could get in.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Watched K-State play Long Beach St last night. KSU, now 10-1 with its only loss to WVU, simply strangled a good Beach team with its defense. I love the physicality of KSU's players, as well as the team's great defense. Frank Martin's team plays very disciplined basketball, regardles of his sideline banter.

Jamar Samuels (Top 100 or so recruit from DC, good offers), Rodney McGruder (Top 100 recruit recruit form DC, great offers), Will Spradling (Kansas kid, being compared to Stevie Blake), Jordan Henriquez (Top 100 recruit, from NYC, great offers), Martavious Irving (Top 150 recruit from Florida, good offers), Angel Rodriquez ( Top 4 player in Florida, great offers), Shane Southwell (Top 150 recruit, NYC), etc.

How does KSU possibly get numerous high profile recruits from DC, NYC and Florida? My guess is lots shady recruiting/$$ to aggregate that talent in Manhattan, Kansas. But the truth is that cheating pays off in wins and, without Burks and Higgins, I think KSU would own us this year - we would be lucky to score 50 points in a game.

Yeah, when I said KSU was down a bit this year, I didn't mean by much. I've only seen them once this year, when they went into Blacksburg and handled Virginia Tech. I do think the Big XII team to keep an eye on this year is Mizzou - they could legitimately win it all this year with the right breaks. Speaking of cheaters, keep an eye on Mizzou's new HC Frank Haith. The guy is as crooked as they come, not a doubt in my mind that he will get nailed sooner or later.

 

[JimmyBuff]

I'd be disappointed if we can't sweep ASU