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Sans Luck, how far does Stanford fall next year?

sackman

sackman

Hates the Counting Crows.
Club Member
They still have a pretty decent defense, but they're losing two guys from the OL, plus Andrew Luck.

How far do they fall?
 
They won't fall to the bottom of the PAC, but they will definitely make a non-BCS bowl game next year.
 
If we assume that their schedule has all the same conference opponents + Notre Dame and they're just flipped. I'll even further assume they beat whoever their other OOC games are.


2-0 going into this Schedule:
Arizona W
@UCLA W
@Colorado Motha F*****' L!!! (W)
Wazzou W
@Washington L
USC L
Oregon State W
@Oregon L
@Cal L
@Notre Dame L

I have them going 6-6 (probably 7-5). They probably beat one of Cal/ND to get to 8 wins, but I don't see any more than that. They may be strong, but I do think they're quite slow. Without Luck, they won't be able to blow the lid off defenses anymore. Teams can stack against their running game and they won't have anything to do.

Plus their kicker blows Lol
 
Tractor said:
Without Luck, they won't be able to blow the lid off defenses anymore. Teams can stack against their running game and they won't have anything to do.

Plus their kicker blows Lol
Click to expand...

This is what I think, too. Unless the guy coming in after Luck is nearly as good, they'll be facing a lot of 8 & 9 man fronts.
 
I see 6-7 wins. There is absolutely no way that they lose 3 first rounders from that offense( 2 on the line) including an all century qb in Luck and not have significant drop off. Their fundamentals are sound, but they will be in dog fights every game, unlike the huge blowouts they have been enjoying.
 
Nottingham is the heir apparent. Their defense has the potential to be better next year, especially if Skov comes back from his injury to be a decent player for them.

Next year is a step back to 7-8 wins and maybe 2013 is as well, but if they close out their class like expected, they are setting themselves up for another nice run down the line.
 
I find it funny when people act like Stanford only has Luck and that they will go back to being home during bowl season
 
Stanford will still be Top 3 or 4 in the Pac next year. It would be shocking if they weren't. They still have some very good athletes and they won't just start expecting to lose. These Stanford players have never known being bad. They won't fall much over the next year.
 
Tractor said:
If we assume that their schedule has all the same conference opponents + Notre Dame and they're just flipped. I'll even further assume they beat whoever their other OOC games are.


2-0 going into this Schedule:
Arizona W
@UCLA W
@Colorado Motha F*****' L!!! (W)
Wazzou W
@Washington L
USC L
Oregon State W
@Oregon L
@Cal L
@Notre Dame L

I have them going 6-6 (probably 7-5). They probably beat one of Cal/ND to get to 8 wins, but I don't see any more than that. They may be strong, but I do think they're quite slow. Without Luck, they won't be able to blow the lid off defenses anymore. Teams can stack against their running game and they won't have anything to do.

Plus their kicker blows Lol
Click to expand...

Cal getting way too much credit here.
 
sliderNcider said:
I find it funny when people act like Stanford only has Luck and that they will go back to being home during bowl season
Click to expand...

I'm not seeing anybody claim that Stanford won't make a bowl next year.

Hmmmmph, yeah, I checked again and lo and behold nobody made that prediction. What "people" are you referring to?

I think it's reasonable to expect a dropoff. You don't replace a guy like Andrew Luck and just expect everything to go on like before. He's a very special player at a position that can single handedly win 7-8 games a year. Their special teams looked turribul, they couldn't kick it in the end zone to save their life. Each return was out to the 30 or beyond. Their defense looked decent, but vulnerable to speed (see UO game this year). They're losing two offensive linemen. I don't think they're in a position to simply re-load. They'll continue to be very good, but certainly not as dominant as they were the last two years. They're in for a few more dogfights in 2012.
 
Maybe not bowl-less... but tini was implying Stanford would be a definite win for CU next year IIRC
 
I think Oregon, Washington and USC will all be favored next year and all of them win. Besides that they could surprise a few like Notre Dame but the rest of the schedule doesn't look that threatening to me if I'm a Stanford fan. They'll do well but lose the conference games in which they're the underdog. Getting San Jose and Duke at home are two great momentum builders to start the season.
 
I expect them to fall back to about where they were during Luck's freshman year. 7 or 8 wins in the regular season.
 
DesertDawg526 said:
Stanford will still be Top 3 or 4 in the Pac next year. It would be shocking if they weren't. They still have some very good athletes and they won't just start expecting to lose. These Stanford players have never known being bad. They won't fall much over the next year.
Click to expand...

This obviously didn't happen to Texas after the 2009 season, and Texas has 10 times the talent across the board that Stanford has.
 
buffedup said:
This obviously didn't happen to Texas after the 2009 season, and Texas has 10 times the talent across the board that Stanford has.
Click to expand...

:nod:
Losing an all everything quarterback hurts the program. Texas post Colt is a good comparison, as is Florida post Tebow. We'll see how amazing Bailor is after RG3 leaves.

Stanford is now to the point where they get everybody's best shot and they don't have that guy that puts the team on his back.
 
Oh man, Shaw is gonna get a real test of his ability as an offensive coach next year. No real WR's, some great TE's, and now he is losing the best part of his Oline early to the NFL.

We hardly knew ye. Stanford is bidding a reluctant sayonara to its Face-of-the-Program quarterback, Andrew Luck, and now to the All-Americans who protected him, too: Left tackle Jonathan Martin and guard David DeCastro both announced their plans Tuesday to forego their final season of eligibility in Palo Alto for the NFL Draft. Like their star quarterback, Martin and DeCastro are both fourth-year juniors on schedule to pick up their degrees on their way out, and both are projected in the top half of the first round after starting 39 consecutive games and picking up back-to-back all-conference nods by Pac-12 coaches.
Click to expand...

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...ther-review-Danny-Coale-s-d?urn=ncaaf-wp12487
 
Ty Montgomery is going to be a pretty good player, he came on late as a true freshman. But they need to get more players at WR.
 
Considering what happened to UT post-McCoy and Florida post-Tebow, I'll peg 2012 Stanford at 6-6. The Conference-Killers and UF had far more talent than Stanford does.
 
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