Colorado:
The success of the Buffaloes in their first Pac-12 season was perhaps the only bright spot in the awful year that befell the conference. Tad Boyle has won 48 games in his first two years in Boulder, the best two year stretch in Colorado history. That said, this was a team that was a ways on the wrong side of the bubble headed into the Pac-12 Tournament last season, and played its way in by winning the title in Los Angeles. The question for the Buffaloes is whether they are ready to sustain the level of play that they maintained for the last few weeks of last season, or whether the team that finished fifth in the conference last year is a more accurate representation of the squad.
The team did lose three starters from a season ago. Carlon Brown was the best bulk scorer on the team at 12.6 ppg, Austin Dufault was a good compliment in the post for Andre Roberson, as he be a stretch forward and hit mid-range jumpers allowing Roberson the room to bang down low, and Nate Tomlinson was the veteran point guard that kept the team steady and made several clutch plays. However, in Roberson and Spencer Dinwiddie, the Buffaloes return the two most important starters on the roster, and an impressive group of returnees along with what is being dubbed the best recruiting class in school history should make for a more talented group overall than last season.
Andre Roberson is obviously the rock, and has to be the early favorite for Pac-12 Player of the Year. Roberson is a double double machine (11.1 rebounds and 11.6 points last season). At only 6'7", he is the best rebounder in the conference, and is also a load offensively both in the post and in transition. The question mark about Roberson is the mid-range game, and is something that he supposedly worked on over the summer. If Roberson has to be respected from mid-range, it adds a lot of flexibility as it would enable Roberson to be on the floor more with 6'11" center Shane Harris-Tunks and 6'10" freshman Josh Scott, who was a scoring machine in high school. Three freshmen, Xavier Johnson, Chris Jenkins, and Wesley Gordon, will compete for time at small forward, and all go 6'6"-6'8" and have the size and athleticism to play at the Pac-12 level.
Even with the losses of Brown and Tomlinson, the backcourt looks to be in good shape. Askia Booker steps into the starting point guard role. Booker played big minutes for a freshman last season, was occasionally explosive, and was a very dangerous three-point shooter (37%). Booker has the potential to be a better scorer than Brown and better passer than Tomlinson. Sophomore Spencer Dinwiddie is an excellent two-guard who is a superb three-point shooter (43.8%), and good rebounder for the position. He needs to improve on his ability to finish at the rim, but he could be a future star in the conference. The question is who will back up Booker and Dinwiddie, and there are a myriad of options, including holdovers Sabatino Chen and Jeremy Adams, as well as a couple of incoming freshmen.
The challenge for this team isn't so much on the offensive end. They return plenty of capable offensive talent, and didn't really win games on the offensive end last season (9th in the conference in scoring). The big question is whether a myriad of new players will buy into Tad Boyle's defense. The non-conference schedule isn't a barnburner, but they have potential matchups with Baylor, Murray State, and/or St. John's at the Charleston Classic, and a matchup with Kansas in Lawrence. One or more wins in those games would provide early confidence, as well as a significant scalp to flaunt come Selection Sunday. The Buffaloes also have a significant home court advantage by playing in the altitude.
Colorado doesn't have the talent of UCLA or Arizona, and isn't ready to compete for a conference title in what should be an improved conference. But this is a talented, balanced squad with an excellent coach. I like Colorado for a fourth place finish, which should be good enough for a return trip to the NCAAs.
