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Scenarios to make the playoff

letsgoavs192

I support systemic racism
What are the things that absolutely HAVE to happen for us to have a shot (aside from us winning out)? I hear people saying OU has to lose to OK St, but even if they win they finish 10-2 and if we win we finish 11-2. A look at the schedules shows similar stuff. Although I would say our loss at Michigan is better than their loss at home to Ohio St...especially when you consider we were winning when Liufau went down. Their ranked wins are TCU (not ranked anymore), WVU, and OK St (if thye win). Our's would be at Stanford, WSU, Utah, and whoever we beat in the Pac 12 title. To me, our resume is better. Even if it is tied we have one more win. But they have the Oklahoma name and that could be a problem.

What about the Big 10? I know ideally Michigan beats OSU and wins the Conf championship game...but if that doesn't happen are we out if Clemson wins out?
 
letsgoavs192 said:
What are the things that absolutely HAVE to happen for us to have a shot (aside from us winning out)? I hear people saying OU has to lose to OK St, but even if they win they finish 10-2 and if we win we finish 11-2. A look at the schedules shows similar stuff. Although I would say our loss at Michigan is better than their loss at home to Ohio St...especially when you consider we were winning when Liufau went down. Their ranked wins are TCU (not ranked anymore), WVU, and OK St (if thye win). Our's would be at Stanford, WSU, Utah, and whoever we beat in the Pac 12 title. To me, our resume is better. Even if it is tied we have one more win. But they have the Oklahoma name and that could be a problem.

What about the Big 10? I know ideally Michigan beats OSU and wins the Conf championship game...but if that doesn't happen are we out if Clemson wins out?
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The worst thing to happen is to have tOSU win and Penn State win out. That will mean Bama, PSU, tOSU, and likely Clemson. A Michigan win and a Clemson loss would really help us out.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
The worst thing to happen is to have tOSU win and Penn State win out. That will mean Bama, PSU, tOSU, and likely Clemson. A Michigan win and a Clemson loss would really help us out.
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If we win out and Penn State wins out and they get in and we don't I'll be pissed. Look at their schedule compared to our's. Nobody can say at all their resume is better than our's. We were beating Michigan when Liufau got hurt, they lost 49-10. Our other loss is to a top 12 team, their's is to an unranked team.
 
letsgoavs192 said:
If we win out and Penn State wins out and they get in and we don't I'll be pissed. Look at their schedule compared to our's. Nobody can say at all their resume is better than our's. We were beating Michigan when Liufau got hurt, they lost 49-10. Our other loss is to a top 12 team, their's is to an unranked team.
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The problem is they beat tOSU. If PSU doesn't lose again and tOSU gets in the playoff, I don't know how the committee can leave PSU out.
 
If Michigan and Alabama win out (2nd OSU loss, 3rd Wiscy loss, 3rd Florida loss) and, of course, CU wins out... that would make it a coin flip between CU (11-2) and either OU or Okie Lite (either would be 10-2). Put those together with a VA Tech win in the ACC Championship and our coin flip would turn into a stone cold lock, I think.
 
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Buffnik said:
If Michigan and Alabama win out (2nd OSU loss, 3rd Wiscy loss, 3rd Florida loss) and, of course, CU wins out... that would make it a coin flip between CU (11-2) and either OU or Okie Lite (either would be 10-2). Put those together with a VA Tech win in the ACC Championship and our coin flip would turn into a stone cold lock, I think.
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I like it. If OU isn't given extra points for being OU, and they compare Team A's (OU) resume to team B's (CU). I don't see how they can put OU in over us. We will have an extra win, and won a conf championship game. Losses are better too.
 
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Buffnik said:
If Michigan and Alabama win out (2nd OSU loss, 3rd Wiscy loss, 3rd Florida loss) and, of course, CU wins out... that would make it a coin flip between CU (11-2) and either OU or Okie Lite (either would be 10-2). Put those together with a VA Tech win in the ACC Championship and our coin flip would turn into a stone cold lock, I think.
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But what about if OSU beats Michigan. We have a shot?

I don't expect Michigan to win in Columbus
 
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One other thing....the committee will have to have some massive balls to put a team in that didn't even win their division (not conference, division) over a team that won their conference. ALA CU-Nebraska 2001
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
If that happens, I think the chances the B10 getting 2 teams in are pretty high.
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That's when we will find out if there is any value placed on winning your conference or not. If they take a team that doesn't win their conference over a team that did and they have similar resumes that is crap. Conf champ should trump all assuming resumes are close.
 
Buffnik said:
If Michigan and Alabama win out (2nd OSU loss, 3rd Wiscy loss, 3rd Florida loss) and, of course, CU wins out... that would make it a coin flip between CU (11-2) and either OU or Okie Lite (either would be 10-2). Put those together with a VA Tech win in the ACC Championship and our coin flip would turn into a stone cold lock, I think.
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Just winning is first, but dominating in the Pac12 Championship game would be very helpful.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
The problem is they beat tOSU. If PSU doesn't lose again and tOSU gets in the playoff, I don't know how the committee can leave PSU out.
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Penn State beat Ohio State, but otherwise their resume is pretty weak. Plus if the season plays out the way it needs to we will add a victory over a top 5 Washington on a neutral field.

If we win out, I don't see how anyone could argue Penn State has the better resume.
 
SINKRATZ said:
Penn State beat Ohio State, but otherwise their resume is pretty weak. Plus if the season plays out the way it needs to we will add a victory over a top 5 Washington on a neutral field.

If we win out, I don't see how anyone could argue Penn State has the better resume.
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I agree. Same with us compared to OU...but you know how these things go.
 
I heard a talking head saying "CU hasn't beaten anyone and hasn't played anyone - their opponents have a combined losing record"

Well, they weren't totally wrong. Our opponents have a combined 65-67 record. However, presuming we beat Utah and then UW. That moves to 84-73 while beating 3 straight ranked opponents. I would put that resume up against any other team save Alabama.
 
Highlander said:
I heard a talking head saying "CU hasn't beaten anyone and hasn't played anyone - their opponents have a combined losing record"

Well, they weren't totally wrong. Our opponents have a combined 65-67 record. However, presuming we beat Utah and then UW. That moves to 84-73 while beating 3 straight ranked opponents. I would put that resume up against any other team save Alabama.
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Also have USC and Stanford going out of conference this week. Wins over Notre Dame and Rice, respectively, would give the overall record a bump. As would Michigan over Ohio State and CSU over SDSU. Other than that, it's just Pac-12 teams beating other Pac-12 teams. Only one there that helps our resume, I think, would be UCLA winning against Cal since we didn't play Cal this year.
 
Highlander said:
I heard a talking head saying "CU hasn't beaten anyone and hasn't played anyone - their opponents have a combined losing record"

Well, they weren't totally wrong. Our opponents have a combined 65-67 record. However, presuming we beat Utah and then UW. That moves to 84-73 while beating 3 straight ranked opponents. I would put that resume up against any other team save Alabama.
Click to expand...
Also, a couple of our wins were better at the time than they look now. That matters. ASU was 5-1 when they played us, and Oregon still had everything to play for at the time we beat them.
 
letsgoavs192 said:
Also, a couple of our wins were better at the time than they look now. That matters. ASU was 5-1 when they played us, and Oregon still had everything to play for at the time we beat them.
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The flip side of that is Stanford and CSU look much better now as well.
 
WSU is good. Would not surprise me at all for them to beat UW, which would be a double **** show for us, taking away our shot at a victory over a top 5 opponent and forcing us to play and beat the same team twice within three weeks. Also, **** WSU for losing to EWU. Dickheads.
 
azbuff said:
WSU is good. Would not surprise me at all for them to beat UW, which would be a double **** show for us, taking away our shot at a victory over a top 5 opponent and forcing us to play and beat the same team twice within three weeks. Also, **** WSU for losing to EWU. Dickheads.
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Agree
 
Highlander said:
I heard a talking head saying "CU hasn't beaten anyone and hasn't played anyone - their opponents have a combined losing record"

Well, they weren't totally wrong. Our opponents have a combined 65-67 record. However, presuming we beat Utah and then UW. That moves to 84-73 while beating 3 straight ranked opponents. I would put that resume up against any other team save Alabama.
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That argument is kind of disingenuous.
- Of the 67 losses suffered by our opponents, 9 are against CU. Normalize for CU, and the story changes.
- What about any of the teams ahead of CU in the rankings? Given CU's strength of schedule, it seems like there should be a number of other programs ahead of us that are even more lopsided than CU.
- The 9 game conference schedule doesn't help. Is it really a better case to cream a mid-major in OOC that goes on to win the SunBelt?
 
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Minnesota is no slouch. 8-3 (5-3)
If they beat Wisc - then Wisc or Nebraska beat Penn State. (If Buckeyes win).
 
We beat Utah and UW. As far as the B1G, Michigan can either win out, or Wisconsin can lose this week and then beat whoever they'd play in that CCG. That either frees the committee up to take 11-1 non-champ Ohio State with no strings attached, or exclude the B1G altogether. As far as Clemson, if they lose, it's gotta be in the ACC Championship game.
 
93Buff said:
Minnesota is no slouch. 8-3 (5-3)
If they beat Wisc - then Wisc or Nebraska beat Penn State. (If Buckeyes win).
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Minnesota is definitely a slouch. They have one of the softest schedules I have ever seen. They avoided Michigan and Ohio State this year and have lost to every halfway decent team on their schedule. Wisconsin beats them by 4 scores easily.

CSU is the only team they have beaten with a winning record. When CSU is your best win, you stink.
 
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