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SJSU vs CU for Coach MacIntyre: how closely can history repeat?

gone native

gone native

Club Member
I took a look at overall offensive and defensive production in terms of yards and points, since points is highly correlated to the ability to gain yards on offense and keep your opponents from doing the same. And of course, ya gotta score more points to win, so then I substracted the defensive yards and points allowed from the offense yards gained and points scored.

Here are the three years for Mike MacIntyre at San Jose State:

YearW/LOff YPGOff PPGDEF YPGDEF PPGNET YPGNET PPG
201210-244634.834521.310113.5
20115-737924.542630.3-47-5.8
20101-1231516.146434.7-149-18.6








Obviously, a nice turnaround on both side of the ball. Now my question was, what will likely happen, and what can happen here at CU and in the Pac-12 conference. First, here are the last four years with the same data points:

YearCoachW/LOFF YPGOFF PPGDEF YPGDEF PPGNET YPGNET PPG
2013MM4-836022.450842.5-148-20.1
2012JE1-1129916.949147.5-192-30.9
2011JE3-1034619.843936.5-93-16.7
2010DH5-736524.240230.8-36-6.6









Clearly, we turned the corner after 3 years in free fall, on everything except for defensive yards per game allowed. However, if you look at the net yards and net points, CU was about equal to the 2010 year at SJSU (without a soft non Pac-12 schedule we would probably have had closer to another 1 - 12 season). Our offense improved much more significantly than our defense. The question is, can both sides step it up further this season, and by how much?

I will follow up with an additional post with my predictions for 2014 and 2015, and why.
 
SJSU, I believe...



I hope he can duplicate the success, because I am tired of the current status
 
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lemmings3.jpg


:popcorn:
 
YearW/LOFF YPGOFF PPGDEF YPGDEF PPGNET YPGNET PPG
2015 optimistic8-444634.834821.310213.5
2014 optimistic5-742129.942630.0-5-0.1
2014 best guess4-840027.244837.5-49-10.3

For my 2014 best guess I used the 70th ranking offense and defense for all for figures: offensive yards and points, and defensive yards and point. I think that might still only get us to 4-8, but there would be closer / more competitive games during the Pac-12 part of the season.

For my optimistic scenario, I used a 50th rank for all the figures (these are based on all FBS programs using 2013 final numbers at teamrankings.com. Then, for 2015 optimistic, I used the exact same production as MM achieved at SJSU in 2012, just for the fun of it.

At SJSU coach MM had good recruiting (top rated for the WAC in 2012) and he developed his system for maximizing practice reps and teaching technique and developing strength. the two big tests for this year, of course, are we will see how much farther the team progresses - especially on defense, and really at the same time, we will have an idea of the recruiting class they are able to attract with on-field performance and selling our new facilities.
 
SJSU's red zone success rate, and 3rd down conversion % on both sides of the ball during that 3 year period would be stats to look at as well. The Buffs have certainly struggled in those 2.
 
'Tini said:
Not sure I'd call 5 wins as "optimisitc"
Click to expand...

I guess that is my point: we were giving up 150 yards more per game on average to our opponents than we were able to gain. Even reducing that by 100 yards a game, and dropping our point differential in half, from 20 points on average to 10, we still might wind up at 4 and 8 or 5 and 7. In other words, we can make significant gains in how well we are matching up to our opponents in terms of production, but it might not look like that much in terms of wins and losses next year.
 
gone native said:
I guess that is my point: we were giving up 150 yards more per game on average to our opponents than we were able to gain. Even reducing that by 100 yards a game, and dropping our point differential in half, from 20 points on average to 10, we still might wind up at 4 and 8 or 5 and 7. In other words, we can make significant gains in how well we are matching up to our opponents in terms of production, but it might not look like that much in terms of wins and losses next year.
Click to expand...
Problem is though that there's no tiering in the aggregate statistics. One bad game (ie. Oregon) can skew the statistic, there's also the home vs. road factor, and we all know how dreadful the splits have been for us since 2006. I understand your point and agree with it to an extent, but I think we'd get a better picture if they were tiered to the teams ranking (ie. Sagarin). I think with that we'd get a better picture of the situation/improvements. I'm more worried about the improvement against the mid and bottom of the Pac 12, not teams like UO, Furd, UW, ASU, etc.
 
I hope that people understand that winning the WAC or whatever at SJSU and winning the Pac 12 at Colorado are not feats of the same difficulty.
 
gone native said:
I guess that is my point: we were giving up 150 yards more per game on average to our opponents than we were able to gain. Even reducing that by 100 yards a game, and dropping our point differential in half, from 20 points on average to 10, we still might wind up at 4 and 8 or 5 and 7. In other words, we can make significant gains in how well we are matching up to our opponents in terms of production, but it might not look like that much in terms of wins and losses next year.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. Maybe the biggest sign of those significant gains will be stopping the flood gates from opening like it did against ASU last season. I think we'd all welcome that even though it would still suck to look at the win column.
 
I think specific stat comparisons to what they did at SJSU and what can be done here need to be done with caution. BUT, the general across the board improvement in all phases of the game can and should be expected to be repeated here. Turning us into a 10 win team in 3 years would be virtually miraculous given how bad we were and what they had to work with in the beginning and the conference we play in.
 
I heard Mac talk about the turnaround at SJSU and how the second year showed huge improvement, even if they didn't go bowling. It's safe to assume we will see improvement this year. Whether it's enough in the PAC v the WAC has always been the big question for me with this staff, and I choose to have hope because that's all we have as Buff fans right now. I will consider a 5 win season AND conference games being more competitive a successful season, which I think are reasonable goals.
 
buffs04 said:
I hope that people understand that winning the WAC or whatever at SJSU and winning the Pac 12 at Colorado are not feats of the same difficulty.
Click to expand...

Great point. I don't think anybody ever made that leap of logic before. Thanks!
 
buffs04 said:
I hope that people understand that winning the WAC or whatever at SJSU and winning the Pac 12 at Colorado are not feats of the same difficulty.
Click to expand...

Not a good choice for your 1900th post.

That is kinda a milestone around here. And you did that. The Allbuffs forefathers are very disappointed in your behavior. I would tread carefully if I were you from now on.
 
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