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Soccer- 2017 NCAA selection show Monday, Nov. 6th (and discussion of team's selection chances)

AztecBuff

AztecBuff

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Just wanted to start this thread in front of Monday's tournament selection show. (I'll probably make a 2nd post sometime after this with what little I can find on the Buffs' chances.)

As basketball USED to be, the tournament consists of 64 teams, with 31 of those being automatic qualifiers who win their conference regular season or, if the conference has one, its tournament.

Selection show time - 2:30 PM MT, Monday, November 6th.
Live show - Scheduled to be streamed by the NCAA, with link or stream supposed to be available at http://www.ncaa.com/ and/ or http://www.ncaa.com/sports/soccer-women/d1at the scheduled start time. (Assume link may also become available at https://web1.ncaa.org/NCAATV/exec/query ???. And/ or, NCAA's soccer twitter at https://twitter.com/ncaasoccer?lang=en may also have something. I know for some past streams I've watched, http://www.ncaa.com/liveschedule/2017/11/06 may also be a source for a link?)

Championships schedule - http://www.ncaa.com/championships/soccer-women/d1/road-to-the-championship

Official Bracket (Of course empty now, but assume it will be populated during the show or right after the show is completed.) - http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/soccer-women/d1
 
Like I was asking in the other thread, does anyone know what our chances of making the tournament are? Top Drawer Soccer has predictions, but you need a subscription.
 
cmgoods said:
Like I was asking in the other thread, does anyone know what our chances of making the tournament are? Top Drawer Soccer has predictions, but you need a subscription.
Click to expand...

I already made a pretty long post in an older (the Oregon matches) thread, so figured I'd start what I can find regarding the Buffs' chances by updating, re-organizing and adding to that. Should start by saying I know NOTHING of historical trends on what the soccer committee has valued, how it might be different from the more well- known basketball selection process, etc., what might be changing in how much they weigh different factors, etc.. Also, as always, apologize for my MASSIVE over-wordiness.
  • Based on the only (free) bracketology analysis I could find, http://www.allwhitekit.com/ , it does NOT look good for the Buffs. That site's author last analysis (dated 11/4) predicts the Buffs will NOT be selected based on all 4 of his models. It looks like that site is doing its final bracketology to be published tomorrow (Sunday) night, which will be after all the matches (conference championships, etc.) will be completed. I have no idea how much the person doing the bracketology knows, what his experience is, how accurate he's been in previous years, etc... (His name, Chris Henderson, is familiar to me only because I've learned of or confirmed a couple Buff soccer verbal commits via his twitter account.) As you mention, Topdrawersoccer.com also has what I assume may be the most notable bracketology analysis, but that's a premium part of the site for which I don't have a subscription.
  • As a reminder, the Buffs had a #37 RPI going into Friday's Utah match. With the Buffs beating the Utes, I wouldn't expect too much movement in the RPI (The Utes were only at #102 RPI, and have a 5-11-1 record.). Although, I admit I was surprised LAST WEEK the Buff's RPI went up as much as it did (from #43 to #37) after they beat the relatively low RPI Oregon schools (who had RPI's 105 and 170 going into this weekend). Therefore, I'm hoping (a little) maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised again this week. (Of course, with the RPI formula, how ALL the Buffs prior opponents this season did, and THEIR opponents did, are major components to the calculation, and it's hard to guesstimate RPI changes without looking at every teams' results.)
  • If the Buffs aren't selected, one thing I will have learned is that either RPI is losing importance in the NCAA selection process in general, or the soccer committee doesn't emphasize it as much as basketball. I believe traditional thinking in basketball (and volleyball) is that a top 40 RPI, especially by a Power 5 conference member, almost always has gotten a team into the tournament. I did find this article regarding men's basketball (http://thesportsdaily.com/ncaa/analyzing-the-rpi-for-at-large-teams-2/). Again, I have NO idea how the committees in the different sports might look at things differently, but if I read it right, it looks like NO Power Conference men's basketball team from 2008-2016 with a top 47 RPI had not been selected. More specifically for women's soccer, an analysis at https://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/predicting-the-bracket indicates the RPI "bubble zone" in general is/ has been from RPI 31-57, but doesn't break out the power vs. non-power conference factor (which I'd guess could also be called a strength of schedule factor) .
  • I must say I never envy tournament committee-members, as I assume any "bubble" team's fans can ALWAYS bring forth arguments why THEIR team should have been selected over some other team, and I don't like ragging on a Pac sister conference member. BUT, As a Buff fan, I will probably rant AT LEAST a little if, as the http://www.allwhitekit.com/ bracketology analysis predicts in all four of its models, Washington State is selected and the Buffs aren't. WSU does have one HUGE signature win (RPI #9 UCLA ~2 weeks ago), which I assume must be the main / only factor that would put them "over the top" in the committee's eyes. However, the Buffs:
  1. Beat WSU head-to-head IN PULLMAN 2-0,
  2. Had a better RPI (37 vs. 48) coming into this weekend. With WSU tieing Washington its last match and the Buffs' win, I'd guess (???) the Cougars won't pass the Buffs in RPI unless some bonus factors are triggered one way or the other that creates a lot more than normal movement.
  3. I would say at worst the Buffs are tied for "worst match result" (RPI-wise) of the year, as the Buffs the only "sub-150" RPI opponent blemish is a 1st match of the season tie at #228 Colorado State, while WSU LOST (also on the road) to RPI #170 Oregon State early this month.
  4. (***) The Buffs finished 4 points ahead of WSU in the conference standings. (The Buffs ended up 6th in the Pac with 17 points, while WSU is 7th with 13 points.)
  • ***Wanted to note that, regarding the conference standings point #4 I noted above, I will consider that by far the least important thing I mentioned above until I see differently. That is a belief born from what happened to the volleyball team back in 2015. (For those who don't remember, the vball team didn't play the "RPI game" well enough in non-conference that year, and the Pac had a relatively off year RPI-wise overall, so CU was "only" at #64 RPI at selection time, and so weren't selected. This was in spite of the fact they finished ahead in the conference standings over THREE other Pac teams that were selected, and finished 4-2 head-to-head against those teams. That year, the (11-9) Buffs became the 1st Pac volleyball team with a winning conference record (after 113 straight WERE selected) to not make the tournament since 1992).
  • Also, as I read what I wrote above, I seem to be mentioning RPI a lot, and want to say I am not personally saying I like that flawed factor that the NCAA seems to be enamored with, but only mention it since it has historically been a crutch selection committees seem to like/ use a LOT.
  • There is another (I believe more respected?) Massey rating used for many NCAA sports, but I don't believe (????) its used by the committee at all. As I write this, it looks like Massey ( https://www.masseyratings.com/csocw/ncaa-d1/ratings ) has the Buffs at #31 (even higher than its RPI). (Massey does have the Buffs final record, so it's more current than known RPI at this point. Assume the Buffs Massey rating could also move up or down a little based on how tomorrow's matches end up.)
 
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Nice cubuffs blog post on this Selection Monday- the Buffs' "resume", why they might not be selected, who they might play if they are selected, etc..-
 
I believe that the Buffs will make it this season due to their late season push which saw them shutout their last five opponents in a brutally tough conference. They also have no "bad losses" on their resumé, although the tie with CSU doesn't help, but that was the first game of the season.

It would be a mega bummer for CU not to be selected with DU an automatic qualifier. The disparity in results, talent, etc., is huge between these two. CU blasted them earlier in the season at DU.
 
Congrats to the team!

(Winner of CU- DU will likely be facing regional seed #1 North Carolina.)
 
This was a big deal.

I was really worried that those stretches at the start of the season and around the mid point when the Buffs couldn't buy a goal were going to sink things despite what this team has shown it can do when it has everything going.

Got to beat DU on Sunday.
 
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