Team Shooting: 30th Nationally in 3P%

[BuffG]

King/Collier/Fortune/Fletcher are a combined 16-32 from 3.

Last time Boyle had a top 40 3P% team, it was mostly just Knutson with Relphorde/Tomlinson to a much lesser extent.

Small sample size obviously but if those 4 continue to be effective from 3 then this is the best TEAM shooting Tad Boyle has had in Boulder. And probably the most complete team as well.

 

[Deleted member 807]

If that keeps up, prayers from last season would be answered. It's nice to be watching our players be the ones to drain 3s for a change.

 

[TDforTD]

With Scott drawing so much attention and all the guys who can handle the rock, Dom in particular, I don't see that number dropping all that drastically. Obviously we will have poor shooting nights but guys are getting open looks.

Love the shorter shot clock.

 

[Buffnik]

Also, XT is 1/3 on the season. Sophomore numbers (37.3%) suggest that he can be over 35% if he plays within himself.

And if/when we get XJ back, we're adding someone who has been over 36% the past 2 seasons (and shot an ungodly 43.9% as a frosh).

In short, it looks like we've got a team that can shoot.

 

[Goose]

Small sample sizes...

 

[Deleted member 807]

Small sample sizes...

Wet blanket. Ban?

 

[89BUFF89]

considering neither game was at home even more impressive.

 

[Goose]

Wet blanket. Ban?

Deserved.

 

[Buffnik]

Small sample sizes...

I'll give you that on King and Collier. It's early and both struggled as freshmen shooting the rock.

Fortune was a 35% guy on 160 attempts for Providence in '13-'14. No reason to doubt that. (Currently 4/10 - 40%, so not out of line.)
Fletch was 45% last season on 48 attempts. No reason to doubt that increased usage is going to drop that into a bad shooting range. (Currently 1/2 - 50%, so high but not like it's a high number of attempts within current stats or much better than last year's % numbers.)

As I said above, throwing XJ (36+% guy) into the mix and getting XT to return to sophomore form (28/75 - 37.3% vs junior 25/79 - 31.6%) would go a long way toward this continuing to be an excellent shooting team even as we see regression to norm from King and Dom (who won't stay at 57.1% & 50.0%, obviously).

 

[patebuff]

I love the look of this team, if we can play consistently at this level. A high percentage shooting team that plays team defense, is perfect college ball, IMO.

 

[jgisland]

Three point % is going to fall off, the law of averages and small sample sizes (shout-out @Goose) says as much.
Below is a table showing the number of teams that have shot over 40% from 3 for the year

# of teams shooting over 40% from 3 Year
61 2016
9 2015
6 2014
6 2013
8 2012
8 2011

As you can see in the last 5 years there haven't been more than 9 teams that have shot over 40% from 3, currently there are 61 (CU is one of those 61).

King is off to a terrific start, but if you remove his 57% from 3 from the team 3pt %, the rest of the team is shooting a combined 37.5%. Compare that to 2011 when Levi finished 10th overall in 3pt % at 47.4%, CU still only shot 37.6% as a team (with his 47.4% included in that).

CU is off to a fantastic start shooting, is it going to fall off? Yes Does it have the potential to be much better than the last few years? Absolutely

 

[Darth Snow]

Need to see how King plays when his shot isn't falling like it has been before we anoint him further.

 

[Buffnik]

For sure it will fall off. The Buffs won't shoot 44.7% from 3pt range for the season.

I don't think anyone is suggesting otherwise.

The point, as I understood it, is that this team may be able to be Top 40 in the nation like that 2010-11 team that shot 37.2%.

I think the talent is there for that to happen. These guys can shoot.

For reference:

2009-10: 38.8%
2010-11: 37.2%
2011-12: 34.8%
2012-13: 34.4%
2013-14: 31.8%
2014-15: 33.5%

Biggest issue with percentage is that in 2011-12 Carlon Brown took the most 3pt shots (30.7%) and the next 3 years Askia took the most 3pt shots (31.2%, 27.2% & 32.9%).

This season, the majority of 3pt shots will either be from King or Fortune and it looks like both of them are capable of hitting at a high rate. Not 50+%, but high 30s or low 40s seems possible for them. Bigger wild card would seem to be Dom, who is shooting extremely well so far but I question whether he's around a 40% guy over the course of a season and he'll likely be third in volume.

 

[Buffnik]

P.S. Just getting Ski (32.9%), Dustin (31.6%) and J-Hop (33.3%) out of the numbers from last year... they took 42% of our 3pt shots... is likely a big bump.

But the other piece of that is Dom showing significant improvement to last season's 26.9% and XT bouncing back from last year's 31.6% to get back around 2013-14's 37.3%. And we can't forget about Fletch: 2014-15 at 45.8%.

 

[TDforTD]

You can't just remove the highest shooting percentage from the sample. King is on our team and he won't shoot 0% the rest of the year from 3. If he fired up another 6 3pt misses, he'd be reduced to a respectable 40% (from the college 3pt line) and the team would be right around 40% from 3 still.

If there's one thing I've learned about basketball, it's that it's the least like its video game counterpart than any other sport. You don't just skill up every year as you get older. Players are basically who they are by the time they're out of high school. This especially relates to shooting. These dudes practice morning, afternoon, and night on shooting. I've seen guys like Ben Mills hit every long 2 in an open gym, but it's different when you try to turn it into a real game situation where there are thousands of external pressures. It's why I don't think a team can just "work on shooting." We have shooters, a guy who can create space, guys who can handle the rock, and a guy who can dish the rock/create.

The shooting % will drop but it's not gonna go the polar opposite of what we've seen.

 

[buffaholic]

Suffice it to say, this team has some willing shooters, and will be a better shooting team than last year. Just looking at shooting form/release, it looks like it's going in and the player shooting the ball looks like he expects to make it.

With the exception of Dom (I haven't seen enough since last year to have an opinion), I'm pretty confident that the guys shooting them are going to make enough of them to make this a very different team than the last few years. Yes - it will drop off, but it will be high enough to open up the inside.

My bigger concern rests with DEFENSE. If we play TadBall we could be very, very good. I'm still not sure that some of these same shooters we are frothing over are as committed to defense as we need them to be come January.

 

[patebuff]

I think someone mentioned this before, but some of this is in due to J. Scott. When people are doubling him, he seems to be doing a great job of finding the open guy. That open guy then is actually shooting the ball. Last year, guys didn't seem very willing to shoot it, at least in the games I watched. We then ran down the shot clock and clunked a long 3/shot that had no chance.

 

[Buffnik]

I think someone mentioned this before, but some of this is in due to J. Scott. When people are doubling him, he seems to be doing a great job of finding the open guy. That open guy then is actually shooting the ball. Last year, guys didn't seem very willing to shoot it, at least in the games I watched. We then ran down the shot clock and clunked a long 3/shot that had no chance.

Part of that is also a return to the offensive philosophy Tad employed prior to last season: if you've got an open look or can beat your guy to get to the rim, then GO FOR IT.

That George Karl crap last season did not fit for this team and program. (And I say that as someone who supported the idea of implementing a more advanced offensive philosophy. I was wrong.)

 

[CVilleBuff]

Scott has an effect on this without a doubt. That said, this will take a tumble. Doing so in 2 strange gyms against power conf opposition is impressive though.

 

[jgisland]

You can't just remove the highest shooting percentage from the sample. King is on our team and he won't shoot 0% the rest of the year from 3. If he fired up another 6 3pt misses, he'd be reduced to a respectable 40% (from the college 3pt line) and the team would be right around 40% from 3 still.

If there's one thing I've learned about basketball, it's that it's the least like its video game counterpart than any other sport. You don't just skill up every year as you get older. Players are basically who they are by the time they're out of high school. This especially relates to shooting. These dudes practice morning, afternoon, and night on shooting. I've seen guys like Ben Mills hit every long 2 in an open gym, but it's different when you try to turn it into a real game situation where there are thousands of external pressures. It's why I don't think a team can just "work on shooting." We have shooters, a guy who can create space, guys who can handle the rock, and a guy who can dish the rock/create.

The shooting % will drop but it's not gonna go the polar opposite of what we've seen.

So you're arguing that King is going continue to shoot lights out in the first paragraph and then in the next paragraph argue that college players "don't just skill up every year as you get older?"

 

[Buffnik]

Team shooting tonight: 47.5% from the field / 36.8% from 3pt range

The great thing about that is that they clearly weren't on tonight and the numbers were still very solid.

 

[TDforTD]

So you're arguing that King is going continue to shoot lights out in the first paragraph and then in the next paragraph argue that college players "don't just skill up every year as you get older?"

I argued that we shouldn't take him out of the shooting equation. You can't just drop his and Levi's 3pt shooting to 0 to prove a point. I don't expect him to shoot 50% from 3 the rest of the year just like I don't expect him to shoot 0%.

Fwiw, we shot 4-8 from 3 when the game was competitive, and 6-13 while the game was still in question. We missed a handful of 3s late when the game was over. Still feel confident about this team.

 

[BuffG]

I see talk of small sample sizes, which was noted in OP, but still don't see anyone arguing against this being the best team shooting Tad Boyle has had here. Now, 27th nationally in 3P %. If Akyazili & Talton can float around 33-35% that would mean every perimeter player in the rotation is a deep threat. Never in my wildest dreams...