Ted Mill takes a look at the Buffs P-12 Schedule

[Hugegroove]

I've got to agree with the possible outcome he suggests in his last sentence. :hmmm:

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12

 

[Quattro]

8-5 or 7-6 is very attainable if we stay healthy and someone in our secondary steps up.

 

[absinthe]

put down the kool-aide folks.

 

[Quattro]

put down the kool-aide folks.

If CU can win all their games at home minus Oregon, they have a great shot to get to 7 wins and go bowling, that's if they stay healthy though. Hawaii may be the most overrated 10 win team in recent memory where 8 of their wins were against Idaho, SJSU, New Mexico State, Utah State, UNLV, La Tech, Charleston Southern, and Army who had a combined record of 30-69. Moniz threw for 400 yards last year but we still won 31-13 and that was with Hawkins. CSU is well, CSU. There is zero reason for us to win it and WSU has had major issues stopping the run and that's CU's strength.

Hawaii - W
Cal - W
CSU - W
OSU - L:
WSU - W
Stanford - L
UW - W
Oregon - L
ASU - L
USC - W
Arizona - W
UCLA - W
Utah - L

8-5

 

[lawdogg]

Appreciate the optimism in this thread, even if I don't share it.

 

[absinthe]

If CU can win all their games at home minus Oregon, they have a great shot to get to 7 wins and go bowling, that's if they stay healthy though. Hawaii may be the most overrated 10 win team in recent memory where 8 of their wins were against Idaho, SJSU, New Mexico State, Utah State, UNLV, La Tech, Charleston Southern, and Army who had a combined record of 30-69. Moniz threw for 400 yards last year but we still won 31-13 and that was with Hawkins. CSU is well, CSU. There is zero reason for us to win it and WSU has had major issues stopping the run and that's CU's strength.

Hawaii - W
Cal - W
CSU - W
OSU - L:
WSU - W
Stanford - L
UW - W
Oregon - L
ASU - L
USC - W
Arizona - W
UCLA - W
Utah - L

8-5

Using your look at last year for hawaii lets go through this schedule, remembering we havent won on the road in a long long time:

Hawaii - 50/50 - vs. experienced qb, on the road, first year HC with no game calling exp.
Cal - they dropped 52 on us last year and tedford teams often start hot, likely "L"
CSU - W
OSU - L
WSU - W
Furd - L
UW - L On the road, load stadium, they are 2 years a head of us in the rebuild
Nike - L
ASU - On the road, Picked to win the pac-12 south - L
USC -L unless there is a blizzard
UCLA - Toss up
Utah - Likely "L", do they have the depth to go a full season?

At minimum we lose 6 games if we go 50/50 in the toss ups we'll wind up about where we did last year, and that is if the fact our coaches have no experience calling games doesn't hurt us.

 

[Unleash Hell]

I doubt Cal is a loss. Cal sucks on on the road, they are like us on the road and I think we will be ready for them this year.

 

[Quattro]

Bunch of negative nancies in here. We instantly become a better team with Embree. Hawaii threw all over us last year with Moniz but only put up 13 points. Cal has a QB with zero BCS playing time in a new system and has been bad on the road the last couple of years. UW will regress this year without Locker, it's not easy to replace a top 10 QB. USC has Kiffin and will under perform again. UCLA sucks and has Slick Rick as their HC.

 

[Duff Man]

I'm thinking Creatini is not remembering the Hawaii game in 2010 in quite the same way I did. They could (or should) have opened up a 2 TD lead on us early. Red zone defense kept us in that game. You also have to understand that Hawaii is a completely different team than they are on the road, maybe moreso than any other team in the country.

BTW, Ohio State on the road is a more winnable game than USC at home.

 

[somebody]

Bunch of negative nancies in here. We instantly become a better team with Embree. Hawaii threw all over us last year with Moniz but only put up 13 points. Cal has a QB with zero BCS playing time in a new system and has been bad on the road the last couple of years. UW will regress this year without Locker, it's not easy to replace a top 10 QB. USC has Kiffin and will under perform again. UCLA sucks and has Slick Rick as their HC.

"Better with Embree" - okay, DH was really really bad but as Ted Miller said, this is one of the toughest schedules in the country, so the question is whether better is good enough.

Cal's bad on the road but that argument doesn't hold for us against Hawaii?

Cal has more team speed than we do - something Embree's working on but we're not there (nowhere near there).

UW has improved every year under Sarkisian - they do face a QB challenge, but we have plenty of our own.

BTW, from further down in Miller's blog: "It's likely that California, Oregon and Washington will end up in the top-25 before all is done." So don't expect those teams to fold.

USC and UCLA may face coaching challenges, but they also kill us on overall talent, so who knows?

I hope we beat some of these odds, but filling yourself full of 8-5 now will lead to tears in the fall. We're far more likely to have the reverse record. That's not being negative, it's being real.

 

[Quattro]

I highly doubt UW ends up in the top 25 with a new QB.

 

[Darth Snow]

I'm thinking Creatini is not remembering the Hawaii game in 2010 in quite the same way I did. They could (or should) have opened up a 2 TD lead on us early. Red zone defense kept us in that game. You also have to understand that Hawaii is a completely different team than they are on the road, maybe moreso than any other team in the country.

BTW, Ohio State on the road is a more winnable game than USC at home.

We were damn lucky they didn't go up by 21 in that first quarter. Wasn't it 10-0 UH at halftime? Can you IMAGINE a Hawk coached team coming back from 24-0? :wow:.

 

[Quattro]

We were damn lucky they didn't go up by 21 in that first quarter. Wasn't it 10-0 UH at halftime? Can you IMAGINE a Hawk coached team coming back from 24-0? :wow:.

Nope but the fact is they didn't with a Hawk coached team. I'm just not impressed with Hawaii when they have two wins against winning teams but with zero BCS wins.

 

[dio]

Let's also not forget that this Buffs team hasn't won a road game in over 2 years.

 

[absinthe]

Let's also not forget that this Buffs team hasn't won a road game in over 2 years.

this, we could close KANSAS last year, we were up the world and failed. Part of that has to be the players, we have a bunch of guys right now who are used to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That will take time to change.

 

[absinthe]

"Better with Embree" - okay, DH was really really bad but as Ted Miller said, this is one of the toughest schedules in the country, so the question is whether better is good enough.

Cal's bad on the road but that argument doesn't hold for us against Hawaii?

Cal has more team speed than we do - something Embree's working on but we're not there (nowhere near there).

UW has improved every year under Sarkisian - they do face a QB challenge, but we have plenty of our own.

BTW, from further down in Miller's blog: "It's likely that California, Oregon and Washington will end up in the top-25 before all is done." So don't expect those teams to fold.

USC and UCLA may face coaching challenges, but they also kill us on overall talent, so who knows?

I hope we beat some of these odds, but filling yourself full of 8-5 now will lead to tears in the fall. We're far more likely to have the reverse record. That's not being negative, it's being real.

Cal is FAR FAR FAR FAR FAR better on the road than we are. **** in the past 2 years they are just under .500 on the road with wins against ranked and conference teams...

 

[77buff]

Bunch of negative nancies in here. We instantly become a better team with Embree. Hawaii threw all over us last year with Moniz but only put up 13 points. Cal has a QB with zero BCS playing time in a new system and has been bad on the road the last couple of years. UW will regress this year without Locker, it's not easy to replace a top 10 QB. USC has Kiffin and will under perform again. UCLA sucks and has Slick Rick as their HC.

Embree is totally unproven, I hate Kiffen and Slick - I hope they both lose to CU, but that's saying alot. If Slick doesn't get them to a bowl this year he's gone. I hope Embree gets off to a quick start - there's no reason we can't win the first 2 out of three games.

 

[azbuff]

It's all an unknown. I wouldn't be surprised with 5-8 or 8-5. But, if I had to bet my life on it: 5-8. Embo stepped into a house that was actually burned to the ground and it is going to take a miracle to turn this **** around. It hasn't been said enough: **** DAN HAWKINS.

 

[Deleted member 807]

Embree is totally unproven, I hate Kiffen and Slick - I hope they both lose to CU, but that's saying alot. If Slick doesn't get them to a bowl this year he's gone. I hope Embree gets off to a quick start - there's no reason we can't win the first 2 out of three games.

Embree could be the next McCartney or become CU's version of Steve Fairchild. His potential is all over the place.

Either way, his best season isn't going to be his first.

8-5 or better would greatly exceed my expectations, as would delivering CU fans the first winning season in six years.

Embree and his staff have to learn to walk before they can run.

 

[Dark Bohner]

Honestly I'm hoping for around a 7-6 record with continued improvement throughout the year. Strange as it sounds, those head coaches who come in and win way more than expected usually are fools gold and then crap the bed down the road. Just show me that the fundamentals are in place and that Colorado is going to be a punishing game for our opponents both on offense and defense. The rest will come with their recruiting.

 

[SJBuff]

My expectations are 3 maybe 4 wins. (CSU, WSU, UCLA and maybe ASU). I suspect that most of next year will be us getting taken to the woodshed as we get used to the speed/style of the PAC12. It's going to be bumpy...

Cal, btw, is not crappy on the road, they play crappy and tend to shoot themselves in the foot late in the season. We play them the second game of the season. You can almost get out a permanent sharpie and mark it "L" right now.

 

[Quattro]

Cal road wins since 2006 -

2006 (10-3) -
Oregon State (10-4)
Washington State (6-6)

2007 (7-6) -
Colorado State (3-9)
Oregon (9-4)

2008 (9-4) -
Washington State

2009 (8-5) -
Minnesota (6-7)
UCLA (7-6)
Arizona State (4-8)
Stanford (8-5)

2010 (5-7) -
Washington State (2-10)

Yeah there's some good wins in there but nothing that jumps out and strikes me as oh my god that's impressive. Cal will be starting a QB this fall that has zero BCS playing time as well as losing Cameron Jordan-DE, Derrick Hill-NG, Mike Mohamed-ILB, Keith Browner-OLB, Bryant Nnabuife-CB, Darian Hagan-CB, Chris Conte-S on defense and Kevin Riley-QB, Jeremy Ross-WR, Chris Guamero-C, Donovan Edwards-OT, Shane Vereen-TB (NFL) on offense.

We should have been 6-6 and 8-4 was very attainable if Danny Boy could make half time adjustments, and the Cal game could have been a lot closer but terrible coaching struck us down...once again. This team has the talent to compete with the majority of the schedule and we are instantly better with Embree as the HC, even if he is unproven but look what happened last time we hired a proven coach. I think CU will surprise most people next year with a 7-6 or 8-5 record and a bowl appearance if we take care of business at home, which we should be able to with the exception of Oregon and maybe USC, I'm not sold on Kiffin yet and there's some rumors floating around that some USC players may be suspended for a few games.

Hawaii - Very overrated. 8 of their 10 wins were against teams with a combined 30-69 record.

Cal - CU is going to be very hell bent on getting revenge and Cal has a QB with zero BCS playing time and lost a lot of starters that will be tough to replace. Being at altitude doesn't hurt either.

CSU - Well, what do I need to say here? Scored zero points in their last two games, back to back 3-9 seasons and not much talent and a terrible coach.

OSU - Could win but I'm not holding their breath. Their second stringers could play on a lot of other teams but they could be over looking us since they play Miami before us and Michigan State after us and who knows how good of a coach the interim guy is.

WSU - They can't stop the run, we run the ball very well and should have a pretty good O line.

Stanford - Luck is going to throw all over us, unless he is injured but I hope that doesn't happen.

Washington - Replacing Locker is going to be very tough and I think UW regresses in 2011 but comes back stronger in 2012. This one could go either way though.

Oregon - No chance unless James and Thomas get hurt and the rest of the team gets in a bus crash and can't play and their practice squad has to play.

Arizona State - Not sure. They could be very good this fall or very bad.

USC - Our yearly game we shouldn't win but will. Blackout nights seem to be favorable for us for some reason.

Arizona - Cold and at altitude will affect Zona and other than Foles, they're about the same as us talent wise.

UCLA - Slick Rick will be gone by this time but UCLA will still be bad and Embree goes in there and romps 'em.

Utah - Loss as of now but I don't know if they have the depth to play a 12 game BCS schedule.

Just my $0.02. I'm probably drinking too much Kool Aid but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility at all to go bowling this year and have our first winning season since 2005. Of course, none of that will happen unless someone in our secondary steps up.

 

[CUFan]

If our run game is good we can stay in a lot of games. However, winning them is a different story. I am optimistic with this team, but getting to 7 wins is a long shot and probably the best we can hope for.

P.S. I recall getting very lucky in the Hawaii game. They should have been up by a lot in the first half. I don't know if I remember correctly, but didn't Hawaii play us on a short week of practice that was held in Vegas since they never went back home? Probably pretty tough on those kids.

 

[Hugegroove]

If our run game is good we can stay in a lot of games. However, winning them is a different story. I am optimistic with this team, but getting to 7 wins is a long shot and probably the best we can hope for.

P.S. I recall getting very lucky in the Hawaii game. They should have been up by a lot in the first half. I don't know if I remember correctly, but didn't Hawaii play us on a short week of practice that was held in Vegas since they never went back home? Probably pretty tough on those kids.

Not sure about their short week of practice, but I thought they stayed in the states an extra week rather than go back to Hawaii because they had two road games in a row.