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The Mathematics To Win The Pac 12 South

InTheBuff

InTheBuff

Club Member
Club Member
Who knows the different scenarios for the Buffs to win the South ?

Obviously win the last three in they are in.

What if they lose to Zona and win against Wazzu and Utah ?

What if they beat Zona , lose to Wazzu and beat Utah ?

I assume a Utah win is a MUST ... beat Zona and Wazzu and they don't win the South ????
 
1 game lead in the standings.

USC and Utah are the teams behind us.

USC owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. If we finish tied with them, they win the South.

We haven't played Utah. If they beat us and we finish tied with them, they win the South.

If the Buffs lose to WSU or UA but beat Utah, Utah is eliminated. USC could still catch us if they win out (includes a road trip to Washington for them).

3-way tie scenarios almost certainly do not favor the Buffs.
 
I think we can absorb a loss and still obviously come out ahead if we beat Utah, but U$C is the wildcard. They're sitting there with two losses, and if they are able to beat UW in Seattle, they have a chance to jump up into the mix if we lose a game.

If the three teams tie with 2 losses and have all beaten each other, I don't know what the tiebreaker would be.
 
Alfred91 said:
If the three teams tie with 2 losses and have all beaten each other, I don't know what the tiebreaker would be.
Click to expand...

Utah would win that tiebreaker (three teams all at 7-2). Because Utah and USC already have their two losses. For them to both go 7-2 means they both win out, and therefore CU would lose to Utah (and beat UA and WSU). Since Utah would have beaten both USC and CU in a three-way 7-2 tie, they'd advance.

Edit: Also, a three-way 7-2 tie where everyone has beaten each other, is no longer possible. CU already lost to USC and if we beat Utah, Utes cannot be 7-2 because they are 4-2 now.
 
King_George_XXIV_Rules said:
Utah would win that tiebreaker (three teams all at 7-2). Because Utah and USC already have their two losses. For them to both go 7-2 means they both win out, and therefore CU would lose to Utah (and beat UA and WSU). Since Utah would have beaten both USC and CU in a three-way 7-2 tie, they'd advance.

Edit: Also, a three-way 7-2 tie where everyone has beaten each other, is no longer possible. CU already lost to USC and if we beat Utah, Utes cannot be 7-2 because they are 4-2 now.
Click to expand...

Yep. We could have an ugly 3-way tie at 6-3. That would suck.
 
Buffnik said:
Yep. We could have an ugly 3-way tie at 6-3. That would suck.
Click to expand...
Here is the 3 way tie scenario. Probably not good for us.

Division standings are based on each team's overall conference record. In the event that two teams are tied, head-to head competition would break the tie. If three or more teams are tied, the following tiebreakers are used to determine the divisional champion:
  • The following procedures will only be used to eliminate all but two teams, at which point the two-team tie-breaking procedure (head-to-head result) will be applied.
  1. Head-to-head (best record in games among the tied teams).
  2. Record in games played within the division.
  3. Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on record in all Conference games, both divisional and cross-divisional), proceeding through the division.
  4. Record in common Conference games.
  5. Highest CFP ranking following the last weekend of regular-season games.
Click to expand...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pac-12_Football_Championship_Game
 
King_George_XXIV_Rules said:
Utah would win that tiebreaker (three teams all at 7-2). Because Utah and USC already have their two losses. For them to both go 7-2 means they both win out, and therefore CU would lose to Utah (and beat UA and WSU). Since Utah would have beaten both USC and CU in a three-way 7-2 tie, they'd advance.

Edit: Also, a three-way 7-2 tie where everyone has beaten each other, is no longer possible. CU already lost to USC and if we beat Utah, Utes cannot be 7-2 because they are 4-2 now.
Click to expand...

Derp. Good points.
 
An SC loss to UW buys us one available loss. That means scoreboard watching with UU or a must win against the Utes
 
drew6236 said:
If the Buffs lose at Arizona they don't deserve to go to CCG. Let's just say that.
Click to expand...

Especially since if UA loses this week they are eliminated from bowl eligibility potential and Rich Rod would be likely to start the youth movement playing time for 2017.
 
Buffnik said:
Yep. We could have an ugly 3-way tie at 6-3. That would suck.
Click to expand...
Any scenario where Utah beats CU and all three teams finish 6-3 would put Utah in.

In the case that Utah is 6-3 because they lost to Colorado and USC is 6-3, the first tiebreaker is intra-divisional record
  • CU would be either 4-1 or 3-2 depending on if their extra loss was to Arizona or WSU
    • If CU's loss is to Arizona: Utah would win the south.
      • if USC loses to UCLA, then both USC and CU would lose to Utah on the first tiebreaker because of better intra-divisional record.
      • If USC loses to a P12N team, then CU would get knocked out because they'd be the only team in the tiebreaker without a 4-1 intra-divisional record, and Utah would win by virtue of beating USC head to head.
    • If CU's loss is to WSU:
      • AND USC's loss is to UCLA: CU would win the south. USC would be eliminated by intra-divisional tiebreaker and CU would have the H2H tiebreaker vs. Utah
      • AND USC's loss is to Oregon: CU would win the south. All 3 teams would have a 4-1 intra-divisional record and it goes to the next tiebreaker. The next tie-breaker is "Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on the record in all conference games), proceeding through the division". in this case, that tie-breaker will not apply since CU, WSU, and USC will all be 3-0 against the rest of the P12S. The NEXT tiebreaker is record in common conference games. Outside the P12S, the only common games between all three schools is against Oregon. USC would be eliminated by this criteria and CU would win by virtue of H2H victory over Utah.
      • AND USC's loss is to Washington: ??? would win the south. Based upon the above "USC loses to Oregon scenario", all teams would be tied through all tiebreakers and the team highest ranked in the CFP poll would be selected. Where all three ended up would be a total crapshoot, but I'm guessing it would come down to Utah and CU- USC doesn't have enough chances to improve their position in the CFP poll over the next few weeks, and I think the CFP pollsters would like CU's resume better than UU.
The takeaway here is that next week against Arizona is really ****ing important. There is virtually no path to a P12S title for CU that does not involve beating UofA, but beating them almost assuredly sets up at least a "winner take all" matchup with Utah on the last week.
 
Most scenarios do not favor CU; i.e. we will need help if we lose one game - and a lot of help if we lose two.
  • If we lose one more, with no help (UU and USC run the table):
    • lose to UA, USC wins: USC has head-to head with us and UU is out, b/c we beat them.
    • lose to WSU, USC wins: see above.
    • lose to UU, UU wins: three way tie, and they own the tiebreaker with both CU and USC.
  • If we lose one more, with one game of help: USC loses to anyone (UO, UW and UCLA are left for them):
    • lose to UA, we win: tied with UU and we have tie-breaker
    • lose to WSU, we win: tied with UU and we have tie-breaker
    • lose to UU, UU wins: tied with UU and UU has tie-breaker
  • If we lose one more, with one game of help: UU loses to anyone except us (not terribly likely, they have @ASU and Oregon left), then USC wins becuase they have the tiebreaker with us.
  • If we lose one more, with two games of help: both USC and UU lose one more game: we win.
If we lose two more, the only way we can win the south is if:
1. USC loses two more and we beat UU.
or
2. Both USC and UU lose two more.

To understand this, you have to realize that UU wins every possible 6-3 three way tie scenario:

UU would have to lose one more game to end at 6-3, which means that they would end the season at either 5-0 or 4-1 against the P12 South.
  • At 5-0, they would have the first and second tie-breaker against both USC and CU, so they would win.
  • If they were 4-1, you look to USC and CU. At 6-3, USC's P12 South record would either be 4-1 or 3-2, and at 6-3, CU's would be either 3-2 or 2-3.
    • If UU is 4-1, and USC is 4-1, then CU is out at either 3-2 or 2-3, and since UU has the head to head against USC, UU would win.
    • If UU is 4-1, and both USC and CU are at 3-2, then UU wins
So, because we can't win a 3 way tie at 6-3, the only chance we have at 6-3 is either for that record to be good enough outright (both USC and UU lose two more) or to have a two-way tie with UU where we have the tie-breaker with them.
 
Last edited:
Buffnik said:
Yep. We could have an ugly 3-way tie at 6-3. That would suck.
Click to expand...

It wouldn't even be ugly. I ran through all the scenarios for three-way 6-3 tie. Unfortunately, Utah wins every single one of them (15 scenarios in all). Mostly by virtue of head-to-head wins over both CU and USC (12 of 15 scenarios). The other three scenarios have CU being eliminated due to a 3-2 South division record where Utah is 4-1 (two of which also have USC at 4-1, whereupon Utah wins out when it then reverts to head-to-head against USC, and the final scenario has Utah at 4-1 and both CU and USC at 3-2).

Methodology notes:
For all three teams to end up 6-3, each team has 3 scenarios:
1. Utah must lose exactly one game (either ASU, Oregon, or CU). L-W-W; W-L-W; W-W-L
2. USC must lose exactly one P12 game (either Oregon, UW, or UCLA). Notre Dame game is irrelevant. L-W-W; W-L-W; W-W-L
3. CU must win exactly one game (either UA, WSU, or Utah). W-L-L; L-W-L; L-L-W.

Now you figure 3 x 3 x 3 = 27 possible scenarios, but 12 of them are mutually exclusive because CU and Utah can't both win (or lose) that final game, as they play each other. Utah's #3 scenario where they only lose to CU, is mutually exclusive with CU's #1 and #2 scenarios, where they lose to Utah. And so on.

12 possible scenarios involve Utah #1 or #2 and CU #1 or #2, with all the different USC permutations, and all involve Utah beating CU to win tiebreaker #1 (since they beat USC as well).

3 scenarios involve Utah #3 and CU #3, with three USC permutations, where CU beats Utah. Now we're in the all-the-teams-beat-each-other scenario, taking us to Tiebreaker #2, South division record. Since CU must lose two games for these permutations to be true, and beat Utah, it means CU loses to Arizona for a 3-2 division record. It means Utah's only south loss is to CU, for a 4-1 record. So this is where USC screws CU by finishing in a 3-way tie, and still loses out to Utah, even if CU wins head to head over Utah.
 
buffaholic said:
While a great number, in practice, I always found it a bit awkward to accomplish. Seems like the pairing would need to be of similar torso lengths... @DBT, can you work on that math a bit?
Click to expand...
I think the critical measurement would be the length between upper and lower orafii
 
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