This Season Rests On Dom's Shoulders

[Goose]

That's a hell of a lot of pressure to put on a sophomore PG who only played 42% of his teams minutes last year, but it's a simple fact at this point. Guards dominate college basketball. Bigs like Jelly can help carry the team, but someone has to get them the ball. A great PG can single handedly carry a team. Unfortunately for this year's Buffs, their backcourt is pretty thin. Ski is gone, but Josh Fortune can step in and hopefully fill a lot of that (although it's pretty unrealistic to expect anyone to replace someone who had a possession percentage of 31.2%). However, the loss of J-Hop - who played 48.6% of the teams minutes - is going to be hard to fill. XT is going to have to step up (I'd expect him to be closer to 25 mpg this year) and we're going to need minutes from Eli or Thomas Akyazili.

Which means it's time for the Dom show to begin.

I've done this exercise in the past (with some exercises turning out very good, some ok, and some pretty inaccurate). But I'm going to use the "comparable players" in KenPom for Dom and see what kind of progress each of them made to the next season.

Stat | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | %Shots | eFG% | TS% | OR% | DR% | ARate | TORate | Blk% | Stl% Impr. |129%|109%|97%|104%|107%|106%|55%|99%|116%|82%|152%|105%

Now included in the group is Christian Salecich who played at St Louis, but saw his minutes dramatically disappear in the second season and he ended up transferring. If I remove him from the numbers, they look like this:

Stat | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | %Shots | eFG% | TS% | OR% | DR% | ARate | TORate | Blk% | Stl% Impr. |155%|109%|106%|116%|107%|107%|52%|96%|120%|78%|125%|87%

That seems to be "cherry picking" a bit, but I did want to include that in the disclaimer.

So if we use those numbers, what can we expect to see Dom put up this upcoming season?

Stat | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | %Shots | eFG% | TS% | OR% | DR% | ARate | TORate | Blk% | Stl% Frosh |42|87.3|17.6|17.8|41|44.1|1.9|8.1|15|22.7|1|1.9
Soph Proj A |54|94.9|17|18.5|43.8|46.7|103.9|8|17.3|18.7|1.5|2
Soph Proj B |65|95.5|18.6|20.6|43.8|47.1|1|7.8|18|17.7|1.2|1.7

And in "big picture" numbers?

Stat | PPG | RPG | APG Frosh |4.7|1.7|1.5
Soph Proj A |5.7|1.7|1.7
Soph Proj B |7.1|2.0|1.9

So, let's hope Dom exceeds the statistical expectations.

 

[Darth Snow]

That's a hell of a lot of pressure to put on a sophomore PG who only played 42% of his teams minutes last year, but it's a simple fact at this point. Guards dominate college basketball. Bigs like Jelly can help carry the team, but someone has to get them the ball. A great PG can single handedly carry a team. Unfortunately for this year's Buffs, their backcourt is pretty thin. Ski is gone, but Josh Fortune can step in and hopefully fill a lot of that (although it's pretty unrealistic to expect anyone to replace someone who had a possession percentage of 31.2%). However, the loss of J-Hop - who played 48.6% of the teams minutes - is going to be hard to fill. XT is going to have to step up (I'd expect him to be closer to 25 mpg this year) and we're going to need minutes from Eli or Thomas Akyazili.

Got this far before wanting to jump off a cliff.

and oof at those numbers. Hopefully they reflect the general anomaly that was last season (insert la la la smiley face here).

 

[Goose]

It very well could have been an anomaly. He was battling injuries and didn't really have the guidance a freshman PG needs. I think these are kind of a "worst case" type situation numbers wise, but it's going to be something to watch.

We need Dom to be a new player this year.

 

[Buffnik]

First of all, everyone needs to give @Goose a "Like". Creating tables is a lot of hard work and that was great info on top of that.

Regarding the thread topic, Dom needs to play like the 4* POY guy he was recruited to be. Last year better be a throw-away.

 

[Darth Snow]

I'm writing off last season completely. It didn't happen.

 

[absinthe]

25 minutes of XT.......

 

[WasianCU]

First of all, everyone needs to give @Goose a "Like". Creating tables is a lot of hard work and that was great info on top of that

I always look forward to reading a Goose thread. Great job and thanks for the hard work, Goose.

 

[dyemeduke]

Agree with the OP and I for one think Dom is up to the task. I think the kid has a lot of game, and prior to XJ's injury and JHop leaving, I thought this team would be for sure dancing next season. I give the guys on last year's squad a lot of credit, but they at times stood around due to selfish offense...and I don't think that will be an issue next year. Dom will pass the ball and get things moving, and that alone will help us. I'm looking forward to watch him develop.

 

[Goose]

Agree with the OP and I for one think Dom is up to the task. I think the kid has a lot of game, and prior to XJ's injury and JHop leaving, I thought this team would be for sure dancing next season. I give the guys on last year's squad a lot of credit, but they at times stood around due to selfish offense...and I don't think that will be an issue next year. Dom will pass the ball and get things moving, and that alone will help us. I'm looking forward to watch him develop.

One thing I'm optimistic about in regards to our offense is a source that people will find surprising from me - I think George King is going to really help the bench. Last year's bench was too passive. No one would take a shot. King, while he wasn't exactly efficient his freshman year, was not afraid to take a shot. I'm hoping that he tones it down a touch, but is a good influence on the rest of the second unit.

 

[Buffnik]

King is definitely not afraid to shoot the rock.

 

[BuffinCali]

This year is all about Josh Scott. He should be a Wooden Award candidate and pre-season all-american. If Tad is smart, he will throw design the offense around getting the ball inside the paint to Scott, bring in Gordon to scoop up any misses.

 

[Goose]

This year is all about Josh Scott. He should be a Wooden Award candidate and pre-season all-american. If Tad is smart, he will throw design the offense around getting the ball inside the paint to Scott, bring in Gordon to scoop up any misses.

That's great, but someone has to get the ball to Josh. Doesn't matter if you have an all-world big man if no one can feed him in the post - and that's something we've struggled with for years.

 

[onealcd]

As long as King plays within himself it will be fine. He seems like someone who could be put in Tad's doghouse quickly if he plays erratic.

 

[absinthe]

This year is all about Josh Scott. He should be a Wooden Award candidate and pre-season all-american. If Tad is smart, he will throw design the offense around getting the ball inside the paint to Scott, bring in Gordon to scoop up any misses.

That's great, but someone has to get the ball to Josh. Doesn't matter if you have an all-world big man if no one can feed him in the post - and that's something we've struggled with for years.

As goose noted this is a guard driven game if we dont have anyone who can bring the ball up the floor and can't space the floor to keep the defense from collapsing on Scott he'll be double and triple teamed, he'll be catching the ball 20 feet out - in short pretty in effective. The big-man driven game and offenses have been on the wane across basketball as a whole and more so in college game for years.

 

[absinthe]

As long as King plays within himself it will be fine. He seems like someone who could be put in Tad's doghouse quickly if he plays erratic.

The wrap has been that he's a beast in pick-up but lacks the basketball IQ to fit his skills within the confines of a game.

 

[Scotch]

Scott will probably be doubled all year long. The coaching staff needs to have a plan for that.

 

[OsideBuff]

The Buffs are several games below 500 since Dinwiddie got hurt. Unfortunately I don't see much room for optimism this year. As stated in this thread unless DOM does a significant turn around and becomes and effective point guard we are in serious trouble

 

[onealcd]

The Buffs are several games below 500 since Dinwiddie got hurt. Unfortunately I don't see much room for optimism this year. As stated in this thread unless DOM does a significant turn around and becomes and effective point guard we are in serious trouble

Fortune and Dom in his second year should be a pretty good guard combo in the starting five. Combine that with Scott and Gordon down low and the starting five and they will be fine but the bench is where is gets a little worrisome. I would assume Fletch would start so the bench is King and Talton. In order for the bench to do well, Tory needs to take a big step forward (which is very possible) and Kenan needs to be a consistent scoring threat.

 

[absinthe]

Fortune and Dom in his second year should be a pretty good guard combo in the starting five. Combine that with Scott and Gordon down low and the starting five and they will be fine but the bench is where is gets a little worrisome. I would assume Fletch would start so the bench is King and Talton. In order for the bench to do well, Tory needs to take a big step forward (which is very possible) and Kenan needs to be a consistent scoring threat.

Gordon will really need to step it up this year he disappears A LOT when Scott is in the game - we need to resolve that.

 

[absinthe]

The Buffs are several games below 500 since Dinwiddie got hurt. Unfortunately I don't see much room for optimism this year. As stated in this thread unless DOM does a significant turn around and becomes and effective point guard we are in serious trouble

Spencer was a special player and a very strong lead guard - it wrecked everything we do/did when he went down. We need to come up with a solution at the guard spot if we want to be anything more than .500 hopefully Fortune is the truth and Dom steps up or we are going to see a lot of what we did last year.

 

[jumped ship]

This is a bit outside the scope of the thread, but another thing I'd like to see is a much tighter 8 man rotation.

I've always been a fan of Tad, but it seems like at times he gets too attached to certain players. For a sub-500 team, I want a little ruthlessness on who sees the floor and an attempt to create more chemistry among the lineups. Early guess would be:

1) Dom
2) Fortune
3) Fletch
4) Wes
5) Jelly
* Tory
* King
* Whichever guard is showing the most confidence, and stick with it

 

[Goose]

This is a bit outside the scope of the thread, but another thing I'd like to see is a much tighter 8 man rotation.

I've always been a fan of Tad, but it seems like at times he gets too attached to certain players. For a sub-500 team, I want a little ruthlessness on who sees the floor and an attempt to create more chemistry among the lineups. Early guess would be:

1) Dom
2) Fortune
3) Fletch
4) Wes
5) Jelly
* Tory
* King
* Whichever guard is showing the most confidence, and stick with it

Love this, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Guzonjic get Tory's minutes.

 

[onealcd]

This is a bit outside the scope of the thread, but another thing I'd like to see is a much tighter 8 man rotation.

I've always been a fan of Tad, but it seems like at times he gets too attached to certain players. For a sub-500 team, I want a little ruthlessness on who sees the floor and an attempt to create more chemistry among the lineups. Early guess would be:

1) Dom
2) Fortune
3) Fletch
4) Wes
5) Jelly
* Tory
* King
* Whichever guard is showing the most confidence, and stick with it

That injury to XJ really appears to have hurt depth. Goose, why do you think Kenan will take Tory's minutes?

 

[Buffnik]

That injury to XJ really appears to have hurt depth. Goose, why do you think Kenan will take Tory's minutes?

I think he will. Not the same type of minutes, though. I think that we're moving toward having one true "5" on the court to anchor the middle of the defense and to work the blocks on O while surrounded by 4 shooters and/or penetrators. I think that this means Wes becomes that paint anchor more often when Josh is getting a blow, with Keenan playing the "4" in that rotation. Tory's minutes would seem to be relegated to when neither Josh nor Wes is on the court.

 

[onealcd]

I think he will. Not the same type of minutes, though. I think that we're moving toward having one true "5" on the court to anchor the middle of the defense and to work the blocks on O while surrounded by 4 shooters and/or penetrators. I think that this means Wes becomes that paint anchor more often when Josh is getting a blow, with Keenan playing the "4" in that rotation. Tory's minutes would seem to be relegated to when neither Josh nor Wes is on the court.

That would be nice and make sense but this team has to get way better defensively in order for that to work and for Tad to continue playing that way throughout the entire season.

 

[absinthe]

I think he will. Not the same type of minutes, though. I think that we're moving toward having one true "5" on the court to anchor the middle of the defense and to work the blocks on O while surrounded by 4 shooters and/or penetrators. I think that this means Wes becomes that paint anchor more often when Josh is getting a blow, with Keenan playing the "4" in that rotation. Tory's minutes would seem to be relegated to when neither Josh nor Wes is on the court.

Its possible if Wes cant get out of his own way when he's on the court with josh (and we still roll w/2 bigs) that the rotation becomes: Josh/Tory & Wes/Keenan

 

[Goose]

I think he will. Not the same type of minutes, though. I think that we're moving toward having one true "5" on the court to anchor the middle of the defense and to work the blocks on O while surrounded by 4 shooters and/or penetrators. I think that this means Wes becomes that paint anchor more often when Josh is getting a blow, with Keenan playing the "4" in that rotation. Tory's minutes would seem to be relegated to when neither Josh nor Wes is on the court.

This.

I love Tory. I think the kid is a beast and rave about him constantly, but I think that Jelly/Wes will be able to split the post minutes well. Unless Wes has a consistent 3 now, putting him and Tory clogs the middle a little too much for us on O. Guzonjic gives us more flexibility there.

I really like our front court.

 

[cu62nu36]

Fletcher is the reason I think we're doomed this season(whether we had XJ or not). Hopefully he makes a liar out of me. Or George steps up. Or Guzonjic can be a good-shooting stretch 4. This team needs consistent outside scoring in a big way. Good bigs and good guards(hopefully) but we really need some consistent wing scoring(and XJ was never going to provide that anyway no matter how much he wants to be a 3).

 

[scoob]

Fletcher is the reason I think we're doomed this season(whether we had XJ or not). Hopefully he makes a liar out of me. Or George steps up. Or Guzonjic can be a good-shooting stretch 4. This team needs consistent outside scoring in a big way. Good bigs and good guards(hopefully) but we really need some consistent wing scoring(and XJ was never going to provide that anyway no matter how much he wants to be a 3).

Odd post. Stream of conciousness or something? I haven't been drinking, but it is 2:30 am. I'm sure I'll be able to connect the dots and it will all make sense after I get some sleep.

 

[Buffnik]

Fletcher is the reason I think we're doomed this season(whether we had XJ or not). Hopefully he makes a liar out of me. Or George steps up. Or Guzonjic can be a good-shooting stretch 4. This team needs consistent outside scoring in a big way. Good bigs and good guards(hopefully) but we really need some consistent wing scoring(and XJ was never going to provide that anyway no matter how much he wants to be a 3).

Fletch seemed to finally find his role and confidence toward the end of last season. Athleticism and length are certainly there. Hopefully he has worked on his handle and his jumper this summer. Just that little bit more in those 2 areas of his game would open things up for his strength (and the team's big need from him)... attacking the rim to break down the defense.