In the past week, we've taken a look at the individual pieces of the team in our AllBuffs "This Year In BasketBuffs - Year End Review/Preview", but today is the day we see how it all fits together and what we could be looking at next season. If you've missed anything, here's what we've gone over so far:
Monday: The Graduating Seniors
Tuesday: The Frontcourt Players
Wednesday: The Backcourt Players
Thursday: The Newcomers
So with that, let's take a look at next season's roster. Before we get too far, I just want to point out that these are purely my educated guesses and therefore there is a 99% chance that I'm going to be wrong. If you want proof, just know that last summer I was convinced that Ski was going to redshirt his freshman year before 'Nik said "Actually, he may lead us in scoring". So just remember, you get what you pay for in this preview (there's a reason it's not posted in Barzil). First, let's take at the current projected depth chart for next season (note: I have removed walk-ons from the lineup).
As currently constructed, that team has all of its scholarships for 2012-13 filled (in this scenario, Chen would be taken off of scholarship per his agreement with the team). I honestly had hoped that we would have resolution on the Sharpe & Mills situations by now, but it sounds like we won't know until next week. My educated guess is that at least one of them will transfer and it wouldn't surprise me if both of them did when it's all said & done. This info is partially based off of the fact that in his chat this week, Ryan Thorburn mentioned that he thinks CU will have "at least one" player transfer in. There's been a lot of talk about Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz but he's hardly a lock to come here. Honestly, I think we're going to see a guard transfer in to provide some depth in the backcourt who only has one year to play. That way, we would have that scholarship available again at the end of the season as well.
So what should we expect from the team next year? The trip to Europe this summer will definitely help. For a squad that is going to depend on at least 4 freshmen contributing, they're going to need the head start on figuring everything out. The strength of this team is going to be it's athleticism and rebounding. Any team with Roberson on it is going to have a bit of an advantage on the boards, but when you figure that Johnson and Scott are expected to get quality minutes as well, you have to realize that the Buffs are going to have a solid foundation for rebounding. If Gordon gets solid PT next year as well, you can expect to see the Buffs offensive rebounding numbers rise from the bottom third of college basketball to the top half at a minimum. This team should be relentless on the boards.
So where are we going to see the biggest drop off? I'm nervous about leadership. Carlon Brown was known for rallying the team in huddles, Austin Dufault led by example and Nate's speech before the PAC-12 tourney is referred to as one of the turning points of the season. Who's going to step up for the Buffs this year? The only senior on the roster is Chen who, due to a lack of minutes, probably won't be grabbing any leadership roles. Roberson would be the next most likely player, but he's always been the silent type and it doesn't seem to be his style to speak out. Will Ski or The Mayor grab the leadership role? Will anyone? This could go a long way to deciding how the team plays this year.
I'm also concerned about bench scoring. In Boyle's two years at CU, he's had a tendency to go more with "line changes" than minor substitutions which occasionally leads to the Buffs having four reserves on the floor with one starter at a time. If Booker joins Dinwiddie, Johnson, Scott and Roberson in the starting lineup, who is going to provide scoring off of the bench? Adams, Chen and Harris-Tunks are all pretty much guarantees to be in the rotation, but none are really known for their scoring. Will Jenkins be ready to play? Gordon? This is where the potential senior transfer might come in to play.
Looking over next season, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that the Buffs will be a more talented team next year, and may even be a better team overall, but have worse results. A tourney run isn't out of the question, but it's not the no-brainer that many think. We're not the only ones in the conference getting a talent influx from the class of 2012 -- Arizona has the #1 recruiting class in the nation right now and UCLA has added Kyle Anderson and still has a shot at Shabazz Muhammad. The PAC-12 still won't be great, but they're going to be better next season.
Right now, I'm thinking that 20 wins is a realistic goal. Remember, teams still can't win at altitude, and we're going to be looking at another bubble weekend. I think the Buffs are a borderline NCAA team that could slip in to the NIT due to conference strength. The real excitement begins with 2013-14 though. With Ski & The Mayor finally being upperclassment, and the class of 2011 having a year's experience under their belts, the team should be ready to go. I honestly believe that Boyle will pull off a magic trick one way or another to land one or two members of the class of 2013 -- and there are some serious difference makers we're in on right now. At that point I think we're looking at a team that is considered one of the favorites to win the conference and is a pre-season lock for the tourney. While next season may not lead to the big dance, one thing I can say for certain is that it's going to be a hell of a ride and if you're in the area, you will not find a better value for your buck than season tickets.
:gobuffs:
Monday: The Graduating Seniors
Tuesday: The Frontcourt Players
Wednesday: The Backcourt Players
Thursday: The Newcomers
So with that, let's take a look at next season's roster. Before we get too far, I just want to point out that these are purely my educated guesses and therefore there is a 99% chance that I'm going to be wrong. If you want proof, just know that last summer I was convinced that Ski was going to redshirt his freshman year before 'Nik said "Actually, he may lead us in scoring". So just remember, you get what you pay for in this preview (there's a reason it's not posted in Barzil). First, let's take at the current projected depth chart for next season (note: I have removed walk-ons from the lineup).
| 2012 Roster | ||||
| Position | Senior | Junior | Sophomore | Freshmen |
| PG | Shannon Sharpe* | Spencer Dinwiddie | Eli Stalzer Xavier Talton | |
| SG | Sabatino Chen* | Askia Booker | ||
| SF | Jeremy Adams* | Xavier Johnson Chris Jenkins | ||
| PF | Andre Roberson | Wesley Gordon | ||
| C | Shane Harris-Tunks* Ben Mills | Josh Scott | ||
| * = Redshirted | Official CU Roster |
As currently constructed, that team has all of its scholarships for 2012-13 filled (in this scenario, Chen would be taken off of scholarship per his agreement with the team). I honestly had hoped that we would have resolution on the Sharpe & Mills situations by now, but it sounds like we won't know until next week. My educated guess is that at least one of them will transfer and it wouldn't surprise me if both of them did when it's all said & done. This info is partially based off of the fact that in his chat this week, Ryan Thorburn mentioned that he thinks CU will have "at least one" player transfer in. There's been a lot of talk about Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz but he's hardly a lock to come here. Honestly, I think we're going to see a guard transfer in to provide some depth in the backcourt who only has one year to play. That way, we would have that scholarship available again at the end of the season as well.
So what should we expect from the team next year? The trip to Europe this summer will definitely help. For a squad that is going to depend on at least 4 freshmen contributing, they're going to need the head start on figuring everything out. The strength of this team is going to be it's athleticism and rebounding. Any team with Roberson on it is going to have a bit of an advantage on the boards, but when you figure that Johnson and Scott are expected to get quality minutes as well, you have to realize that the Buffs are going to have a solid foundation for rebounding. If Gordon gets solid PT next year as well, you can expect to see the Buffs offensive rebounding numbers rise from the bottom third of college basketball to the top half at a minimum. This team should be relentless on the boards.
So where are we going to see the biggest drop off? I'm nervous about leadership. Carlon Brown was known for rallying the team in huddles, Austin Dufault led by example and Nate's speech before the PAC-12 tourney is referred to as one of the turning points of the season. Who's going to step up for the Buffs this year? The only senior on the roster is Chen who, due to a lack of minutes, probably won't be grabbing any leadership roles. Roberson would be the next most likely player, but he's always been the silent type and it doesn't seem to be his style to speak out. Will Ski or The Mayor grab the leadership role? Will anyone? This could go a long way to deciding how the team plays this year.
I'm also concerned about bench scoring. In Boyle's two years at CU, he's had a tendency to go more with "line changes" than minor substitutions which occasionally leads to the Buffs having four reserves on the floor with one starter at a time. If Booker joins Dinwiddie, Johnson, Scott and Roberson in the starting lineup, who is going to provide scoring off of the bench? Adams, Chen and Harris-Tunks are all pretty much guarantees to be in the rotation, but none are really known for their scoring. Will Jenkins be ready to play? Gordon? This is where the potential senior transfer might come in to play.
Looking over next season, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that the Buffs will be a more talented team next year, and may even be a better team overall, but have worse results. A tourney run isn't out of the question, but it's not the no-brainer that many think. We're not the only ones in the conference getting a talent influx from the class of 2012 -- Arizona has the #1 recruiting class in the nation right now and UCLA has added Kyle Anderson and still has a shot at Shabazz Muhammad. The PAC-12 still won't be great, but they're going to be better next season.
Right now, I'm thinking that 20 wins is a realistic goal. Remember, teams still can't win at altitude, and we're going to be looking at another bubble weekend. I think the Buffs are a borderline NCAA team that could slip in to the NIT due to conference strength. The real excitement begins with 2013-14 though. With Ski & The Mayor finally being upperclassment, and the class of 2011 having a year's experience under their belts, the team should be ready to go. I honestly believe that Boyle will pull off a magic trick one way or another to land one or two members of the class of 2013 -- and there are some serious difference makers we're in on right now. At that point I think we're looking at a team that is considered one of the favorites to win the conference and is a pre-season lock for the tourney. While next season may not lead to the big dance, one thing I can say for certain is that it's going to be a hell of a ride and if you're in the area, you will not find a better value for your buck than season tickets.
:gobuffs:
