wyobuff
Well-Known Member
Seems like we are still pushing ourselves off that barrel we got bent over in january, but we are just 2 weeks away from the end of the conference season. There are a few I'd like to have back (UCLA, @utah, vs ASU) but I think they've recovered nicely from the hole they dug themselves in at the start.
The morass that was the pac12 standings over the last 2 weeks has started to separate a bit, with CU sitting alone in 5th place, .5 games ahead of USC (whom we own the tiebreaker on) and 1 game behind cal (with the chance to personally close that gap and take the tie breaker) and 1 game behind ASU who owns the tiebreaker on us. Here are the current standings, as well as the last games left for each team and some thoughts:
(Pac 12 tiebreaker scenarios)
CU's chance to take the regular season crown/get into top 4 tourney slots for the precious day off.
ASU: holds tiebreaker over us with 2 victories. We need help to get around them, and could get it from zona & ucla
CAL: We have the tiebreaker over them at the moment, but are going into the bay area next week against a hot team. In the event of a loss @ cal, they would hold the tiebreaker over us with victories against the presumed top 2 seeds, arizona & oregon.
UCLA: Hold tiebreaker over us with win in head to head play. We'd need help here also, and could get it from usc.
ZONA: Split* regular season match ups, but they lost to oregon, giving us the advantage
OU: Currently hold the tie breaker over the ducks, with them coming into our house during the final week of the season. In the event of a split, they hold the keys with victories over arizona & ucla.
I thought we had a better line on it than that, but I could be reading into it incorrectly. Either way, all we have to do is take care of our business at home, and split on the road and we should be just fine.
In all honesty it could be better to play the first game - the ncaa committee will look at it as a conf tourney win (albeit against a bottom feeder), as opposed to not playing at all on day 1 and waiting until day 2 for the first game.
Too tough to tell at the moment.
The morass that was the pac12 standings over the last 2 weeks has started to separate a bit, with CU sitting alone in 5th place, .5 games ahead of USC (whom we own the tiebreaker on) and 1 game behind cal (with the chance to personally close that gap and take the tie breaker) and 1 game behind ASU who owns the tiebreaker on us. Here are the current standings, as well as the last games left for each team and some thoughts:
- Oregon (21-6, 10-4). Vs Stan, Vs OSU, @colorado, @utah. OU looked un-catchable until their PG got hurt and they were throttled by stanford and beat by cal in the bay area. we stole one from them at home, and that muddled the standings. Quality squad, but end with their last 2 games on the road against a CU team that will probably want a big win, and a tough utah team. They could go 3-1 or 1-3 down the stretch. Final conf record prediction: 13-5
- Arizona (22*-4, 10-4) vs wazzu, @usc, @ ucla, vs asu. Back where they were thought to be last year, zona has beaten the teams they should have and been solid up to this point. I wouldnt be surprised if they split down in so cal, but you can never tell with this team. When they are playing bad, they are baaaad. Final conf record prediction: 12-6
- UCLA (19-7, 9-4) @usc, vs asu, vs zona, @wazzu, @wash. After a rough non-conf sechedule, they have gotten it together in pac12 play, and have solid wins, but did go down to usc at home. I they dont seem to be playing as poorly as they were, but they are not playing great either. This is the one game I'd really like to have back, more because it was at home than because of the seeding implications, but still. Will probably get bounced out early in march, but will probably dance on a mediocre record and rep alone. Final conf record prediction 12-6
- Arizona State (20-7, 9-5) vs wash, @ucla, @usc, @zona. Total shock that they are (still) this high, but it's easy when you knock out the big man to start feeding it inside. Played much better than everyone thought early, and have a tough home stretch. Currently in the "last 4 in" for the dance, they are clinging to a 4th place standing in the pac-12. They got into an OT tilt with usc at home earlier this year, so I wouldnt be suprised if they sputtered down the stretch. Final conf record prediction 11-7
- Cal (17-9, 9-5) @osu, vs colorado, vs utah, vs stanford. Hottest team in the league right now, by far. Clutch bucket to end the game v ou last night by cobbs, and they are finally playing to their potential after a poor non-con and disappointing start to conf play. Have a 1 tough opponent down the stretch, and the stanford game could be a war, but they were barely able to hold off the beavers at home earlier this year. Final conf record prediction 11-7
- Colorado (18-8, 8-6) @cal, @ stanford, vs oregon, vs osu. After a great start to the season, conference play didnt start out nearly as good. the team headed into a -3g dive after getting screwed at arizona, caught a washington team that looked good at the time, but was clearly outkicking the coverage and slowly started to pull their way back to 500 in league play with solid wins vs a much better USC team, a nice sweep in oregon before a setback in salt lake. It would take a lot of things going right, but this team is not out of the regular season crown. Should be fine in march, but now are playing for seed. Final conf record prediction: 11-7
- USC (12-14, 7-6) vs ucla, vs zona, vs asu, @wash, @wazzu, after canning the coach mid season, they've played surprisingly well, and have won 4 of the last 5. Will finish far better than their prediction, but unless they run the table in the conf tourney, will not be dancing. Final conf record prediction: 10-8
- Stanford (16-11, 7-7) @oregon, vs colorado, vs utah, @cal. Still playing with the hope of dancing, the cardnial have been middling this season, though did have an impressive win against oregon in late jan. Probably out in march, but do have the potential to get hot late. Not a team to sleep on quite yet. final conf record prediction: 8-10
- Washington (14-13, 6-8) @asu, vs wazzu, vs usc, vs ucla. Started conf play 4-0, but woke up from that dream after defeating the buffs, and have gone 2-8 in the last 10 games. Playing the spoiler role at this point, and did knock off the sun devils in seattle. Would be nice to get a favor (or 2) from these guys, but dont count on it. They've lost to bottom feeders utah & OSU early in the season. Final conf record prediction: 7-11
- Oregon State (13-14, 3-11) vs cal, @oregon, @utah, @colorado Started strong by beating up on lots of little known teams, the first brother-in-law looked to have a solid season, but the wheels came off before conference play tipped with a loss to towson. For these beavers, it's been more of the same all season long. Other than the win against washington, they've only gotten w's over the other bottom feeders, wazzu & utah. final conf record prediction: 4-14
- Utah (11-15, 3-11) @cal, @stanford, vs osu, vs oregon with the exception of getting blown out by the beavers, this is a team that just can never seem to get over the hump, as many of their conf losses are by 7pts or less. Dangerous team next year to be sure, but there were some flashes of greatness this year (win over colorado @ home, even though they almost gave that away). final conf record prediction 4-14
- Washington State (11-16, 2-12) @zona @ wash, vs ucla, vs usc Disappointing season, and the coach is probably on the hot seat this year after a dismal performance, with only wins coming over fellow basement dwellers osu & utah. final conf record prediction: 2-16
(Pac 12 tiebreaker scenarios)
CU's chance to take the regular season crown/get into top 4 tourney slots for the precious day off.
ASU: holds tiebreaker over us with 2 victories. We need help to get around them, and could get it from zona & ucla
CAL: We have the tiebreaker over them at the moment, but are going into the bay area next week against a hot team. In the event of a loss @ cal, they would hold the tiebreaker over us with victories against the presumed top 2 seeds, arizona & oregon.
UCLA: Hold tiebreaker over us with win in head to head play. We'd need help here also, and could get it from usc.
ZONA: Split* regular season match ups, but they lost to oregon, giving us the advantage
OU: Currently hold the tie breaker over the ducks, with them coming into our house during the final week of the season. In the event of a split, they hold the keys with victories over arizona & ucla.
I thought we had a better line on it than that, but I could be reading into it incorrectly. Either way, all we have to do is take care of our business at home, and split on the road and we should be just fine.
In all honesty it could be better to play the first game - the ncaa committee will look at it as a conf tourney win (albeit against a bottom feeder), as opposed to not playing at all on day 1 and waiting until day 2 for the first game.
Too tough to tell at the moment.
