Top 100 Players In D-1 Ball

[Goose]

I missed this last week, but Basketball Prospectus did a feature on the top 100 players in division 1 basketball. It's a great read if you have the time. No Buffs made the list, but Andre Roberson was listed as someone who they "think may completely explode, even though they didn't make my top 100 ". Roberson is also listed as Pac-12 Second Team (which is really the third team, but that's a whole other rant).

About a week ago, I decided to name my top 100 players in Division I for 2012. I started off using the rudimentary projection system I outlined last week to get a handle on how good the incoming freshmen should be. Then I asked Dave Telep of ESPN.com to name the two "most college-ready" and "least college-ready" of every group of ten players in his Top 100. That got me started, but I wanted more inputs.


I also made it a point to wander around NBA Camp, asking the people there whether they'd pick Harrison Barnes or Jared Sullinger for just the 2012 season. I made a gigantic bracket including every player who's planning on playing D-I basketball this season that either won their conference player of the year award at a low-major, made a mid-major all-conference team, or started at a high-major in 2010 or 2011, plus a bunch of freshmen and Thomas Robinson types. Then I filled out the bracket, researching the guys I didn't know that well. Once there was a winner, I moved him out of the bracket and re-did the whole thing without him to get No. 2. I got to about 65 before I realized that I was putting nearly identical guys 10 or 12 spaces apart, so I tried to make a formula that fit what I was thinking (with points for making an All-Defense team, etc.), only it kept not working.
So today I have this list. And I spent way too much time putting it together. Even so, if you asked me why the No. 85 guy is above the No. 86 guy, I probably don't know for sure anymore. But it became clear to me that just talking about the Javon McCreas of the world was all I really wanted to do in the first place, regardless of whether anyone will do anything but skim my rankings.

Be that as it may, I like these rankings. I feel comfortable with them, even though a well-placed comment about Gilvydas Biruta would probably change where I think he should be, at least after the top five. I feel pretty good about my top five.

Intro/#71-100
#51-70
#36-50
#21-35
#11-20
#1-10
The Aftermath

Notable players:
88.) Aaron Fuller, USC (Jr., SF)
87.) Ton Wroten, Washington (Fr., PG)
79.) Terrence Ross, Washington (So., SF)
73.) Harper Kamp, California (Sr., C)
45.) Reeves Nelson, UCLA (Jr., PF)
42.) Trent Lockett, Arizona State (Jr., SG)
25.) Jorge Gutierrez, California (Sr., PG)
23.) Jared Cunningham, Oregon State (Jr., SG)
13.) Joshua Smith, UCLA (So., C)

 

[Buffnik]

Hoping to see Carlon Brown skyrocket onto these lists. Be great for the program if we could put him in the NBA, even if it's as a 2nd round guy.

 

[Goose]

We're going to have to be Pistons-esque this year (2005 Pistons, not present-day obviously) to have success. I like our depth, but I'm not sure Brown can be the superstar to carry us. We're going to have to hope that our depth can overwhelm teams as we send wave after wave.

Actually, now that I think about it, last year's Nuggets (post-trade) would be a better example than the '05 Pistons.

 

[tante]

Lockett averaged 13.4 ppg and 2.5 apg while grabbing 5.3 rebounds per game, which is pretty close to what Carlon Brown averaged with Utah in his final year. It is not completely out of the question to see him on some top 100 lists.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

I like your analogy, Goose. But the staff is gonna have to get a few of the players up to speed real quick. Do you think Boyle will actually tinker with a 10 man rotation?

 

[Goose]

I like your analogy, Goose. But the staff is gonna have to get a few of the players up to speed real quick. Do you think Boyle will actually tinker with a 10 man rotation?

I don't have any inside info like Nik, so I'm just making educated guesses here. My initial response was that I doubt that we go with a 10 man rotation, but more likely that we have an 8 man rotation. I still think the starting lineup will go:

PG: Tomlinson/Dinwiddie
SG: Brown
SF: Adams
PF: Dufault
C: Harris-Turks

I'm hoping that by the time Pac-12 play rolls around Dinwiddie will be ready to take starters minutes as I really think Tomlinson would thrive in a role that Nik suggested where he fills Levi's role of shooter off of the bench. Nate can hit the three, he just is selfless to a fault. Along with those six, you KNOW Roberson is going to get serious minutes (and probably will get more minutes overall than both of our starting bigs). Cain will probably be the fourth big and should get some minutes up front. That leaves Booker, Sharpe & Mills for spot minutes.

Looking over the numbers from Boyle's last year at UNC, it appears that he went with an 8 man rotation there with other guys filling spot minutes. I think that while we don't have the "superstar" this year like we did last year, we have tons better depth. I could be wrong about our incoming freshmen (lord knows it wouldn't be the first time), but I really think we got three damn good players -- all of which could contribute this year.

 

[tante]

That leaves Booker, Sharpe & Mills for spot minutes.

I really hope Mills red-shirts this year and just hits the weight room hard. He needs to put on some serious bulk and work on his offensive game.

 

[Goose]

I really hope Mills red-shirts this year and just hits the weight room hard. He needs to put on some serious bulk and work on his offensive game.

Agreed. This is why I'm still holding out hope that we land Silva before the season starts.

 

[dyemeduke]

I don't think there's any way that we do a ten man rotation - of course I could be wrong though. 10 man rotations are rarely used, because it's just too hard on the players - tough to get a flow going. I think we'll do an eight man rotation with the following: SHT, Dufault, Cain, Adams, Brown, Dinwiddie (I think he'll start by the end of the season), Tomlinson/Sharpe (one of the two will get time while the other sits...I hope Sharpe steps up this year), and Roberson.