Way Too Early 2020-2021 Look... Who Will Return?

[BatBuff]

Someone posted a similar thread on 247. But I wanted to get your thoughts on who you think will come back next year. I think Battey and Schwartz are for sure back. I'm pretty sure Bey will go to the NBA. I'm not sure about Kin though. What are everyone else's thoughts?

I know it's way too early to talk about this, but if Wright came back, we would have a really good team again next year.

 

[Buffnik]

A deep tourney run increases the odds that more guys leave. I'll take that trade vs a disappointing finish that makes guys want to come back for unfinished business.

My assumption is that Bey and Kin both go pro.

 

[JMBuffs]

I keep hearing from reputable guys like Buffnik that Kin will most likely leave, which still shocks me. I believe with his size he sticks around. I cant see him being drafted in the NBA

 

[BatBuff]

I keep hearing from reputable guys like Buffnik that Kin will most likely leave, which still shocks me. I believe with his size he sticks around. I cant see him being drafted in the NBA

I agree, His size, and his 3-point shot (except it's been pretty good lately), has made me think he might stick around for one more year.

 

[BuffinCali]

My two cents - everybody returns. Bey is having a nice season, but it is not dominating that would get him in the top 20. I think he comes back with Kin for a run at a potential National Championship as Seniors. That sounds pretty damn good!!!

 

[Lightning]

Take away the last several minutes vs OSU and Kin has been great lately. For his future I just wish he was about 6'2" not almost 6'. Not sure he gets selected by nba. Tyler could use another year developing his 3pt shot or ability to drive. If they both comeback..wow..and add another ballhandler Keeshawn and a healthy Dallas! That would allow redshirting LOB and D Cliff. Ultimately though I'm for whatever is best for Kin and TB.

 

[Medford M.]

Take away the last several minutes vs OSU and Kin has been great lately. For his future I just wish he was about 6'2" not almost 6'. Not sure he gets selected by nba. Tyler could use another year developing his 3pt shot or ability to drive. If they both comeback..wow..and add another ballhandler Keeshawn and a healthy Dallas! That would allow redshirting LOB and D Cliff. Ultimately though I'm for whatever is best for Kin and TB.

Clifford and O'Brien aren't red shirting. Clifford because he's good enough to be in the rotation, and O'Brien because you don't red shirt a guy who you're trying to push through the program.

 

[Goose]

Bey and Kin are gone. I guess there's a chance that Kin comes back, but I personally doubt it. What's he going to improve in one year? He's not gonna grow. He's shooting well from 3. His assist rate is elite. Why come back and give people more footage to potentially nitpick?

 

[onealcd]

We just started conference play in the most promising year since 2016 and we are already looking towards next year?

 

[Goose]

We just started conference play in the most promising year since 2016 and we are already looking towards next year?

Gotta be ready. ABC's of hoops.

Always
Be
Crootin'

 

[dyemeduke]

Bey and Kin are gone. I guess there's a chance that Kin comes back, but I personally doubt it. What's he going to improve in one year? He's not gonna grow. He's shooting well from 3. His assist rate is elite. Why come back and give people more footage to potentially nitpick?

On the flip side though, Kin's length is a huge obstacle in him getting drafted. So, if he's looking at NBA UFA status or overseas, then what's the harm in coming back another year in hopes of actually landing a second round pick? You could view another year as more positive or negative footage, and I think he's more than confident that a potential senior season would be positive, or at least equivalent to this year's performance. I think the thing that determines if he goes/stays is not so much his draft stock (because I think that relatively stays the same after this year or next season), but how much does he want to start making money as opposed to staying in college. On that point, articles don't really provide a ton of direction imo. I don't think we can just assume he wants out asap, because he comes from a financially challenged background.

 

[ahoelsken]

Clifford and O'Brien aren't red shirting. Clifford because he's good enough to be in the rotation, and O'Brien because you don't red shirt a guy who you're trying to push through the program.

O'Brien will. He needs to get bigger. Seen him play multiple times.

 

[Goose]

On the flip side though, Kin's length is a huge obstacle in him getting drafted. So, if he's looking at NBA UFA status or overseas, then what's the harm in coming back another year in hopes of actually landing a second round pick? You could view another year as more positive or negative footage, and I think he's more than confident that a potential senior season would be positive, or at least equivalent to this year's performance. I think the thing that determines if he goes/stays is not so much his draft stock (because I think that relatively stays the same after this year or next season), but how much does he want to start making money as opposed to staying in college. On that point, articles don't really provide a ton of direction imo. I don't think we can just assume he wants out asap, because he comes from a financially challenged background.

I'm purely looking at it from the standpoint of - "if a player comes back, does it usually help or hurt their stock?" Yeah, there are cases where it helps - and those are great. But a general majority of them it causes them to be more scrutinized and they end up going later. Maybe it's PTSD from Richard Roby, but I'm a firm believer in as soon as you can go - GO.

 

[JMBuffs]

I guess there's a chance that Kin comes back, but I personally doubt it. What's he going to improve in one year? He's not gonna grow. He's shooting well from 3. His assist rate is elite. Why come back and give people more footage to potentially nitpick?

If he doesn't get drafted, coming back to finish your senior year and earn a degree is a HUGE benefit to Kin and should be motivation to stay as well.

 

[dyemeduke]

I'm purely looking at it from the standpoint of - "if a player comes back, does it usually help or hurt their stock?" Yeah, there are cases where it helps - and those are great. But a general majority of them it causes them to be more scrutinized and they end up going later. Maybe it's PTSD from Richard Roby, but I'm a firm believer in as soon as you can go - GO.

I agree with your initial statement man, but I think the disconnect between us is that I see MK having nearly zero stock to hurt. While he's a great player, I just don't get the feeling the NBA likes him more than an UFA right now. I agree with your last statement with a qualifier, "as soon as as you can be drafted, GO." Even if Bey is a 2nd, he should go. MK though...he can be an UFA in 20-21 or in 21-22; I don't think a potential senior year will hurt that status.

 

[Buffnik]

The other side with Kin being only 6'0" is that the NBA assumes less career longevity when a player is shorter for a position. That adds value to coming out before graduating. I keep thinking back to the surprise at Isaiah Thomas leaving UW early to go in the 2nd round, but how that obviously worked out very well for him.

 

[Buffnik]

As I look ahead to 2020-21, I'm again worried about outside shooting.

We will need to replace Siewert's impact as a stretch-4 and how that opens up the court. Assuming we're also replacing Bey, that's a lot of knockdown shooting to make up for.

Battey and Walton both need to work on their range & consistency.

At the 2, we're going to miss Gatling. I like the idea of Daniels as a 6th man who can spell Schwartz and Kountz, but we need Kountz to take a big step forward with his range. Kountz has improved his stroke a lot -- he has become a much better FT shooter and is pretty darn good in the mid range. We need him to start knocking down over 35% from outside 20 feet, though.

PG and secondary ball handler becomes a big matchup advantage if Kin returns with Barthelemy in the mix along with further development from Kountz, Daniels and Schwartz. But if Kin doesn't come back this becomes a potential liability.

My last big thing as I look ahead is on whether the defense has a guy who can challenge shots to erase mistakes. Where is that Wes Gordon or Tyler Bey above-the-rim on defense going to come from next year? I'm not convinced that guy is on the roster and it might just be something we have to accept as a team weakness. Maybe Dombek could become a weak side help defender with the length and athleticism to disrupt, but he seems like he's pretty far away at this point. Probably something Tad will need to find with a JUCO/grad transfer/HS recruit if Bey leaves.

 

[dyemeduke]

As I look ahead to 2020-21, I'm again worried about outside shooting.

We will need to replace Siewert's impact as a stretch-4 and how that opens up the court. Assuming we're also replacing Bey, that's a lot of knockdown shooting to make up for.

Battey and Walton both need to work on their range & consistency.

At the 2, we're going to miss Gatling. I like the idea of Daniels as a 6th man who can spell Schwartz and Kountz, but we need Kountz to take a big step forward with his range. Kountz has improved his stroke a lot -- he has become a much better FT shooter and is pretty darn good in the mid range. We need him to start knocking down over 35% from outside 20 feet, though.

PG and secondary ball handler becomes a big matchup advantage if Kin returns with Barthelemy in the mix along with further development from Kountz, Daniels and Schwartz. But if Kin doesn't come back this becomes a potential liability.

My last big thing as I look ahead is on whether the defense has a guy who can challenge shots to erase mistakes. Where is that Wes Gordon or Tyler Bey above-the-rim on defense going to come from next year? I'm not convinced that guy is on the roster and it might just be something we have to accept as a team weakness. Maybe Dombek could become a weak side help defender with the length and athleticism to disrupt, but he seems like he's pretty far away at this point. Probably something Tad will need to find with a JUCO/grad transfer/HS recruit if Bey leaves.

I'm not so sure we're going to miss Gatling a lot. I like the kid, and his defense has stepped up this year. But, outside of a few sparks, his offense isn't that great. I'm hopeful of Daniels develops more - he seems athletic enough, but a little awkward/clumsy and lost at times. I like him though, but I also liked Thomas AK his first season. Assuming Daniels develops better than Thomas, as well as Kountz, we should be fine replacing Gatling.

With Kin, I think we should still expect NCAA, but without him, I think we're NIT, if that. A lot hinges on how Barthelemy looks and continued progress from role players. We have solid pieces in Kin, Schwartz (who hopefully gets more confident driving), and Battey. Now, Walton, Kountz, Daniels, Barthelemy, and maybe even Clifford need to show something on a consistent basis. My personal opinion, I think Daniels and Barthelemy step up next season as role guys, and Kin/Battey/Schwartz carry us to another tournament to close out their great careers.

Looking ahead even more, 21-22 could be a real struggle unless Barthelemy and Clifford are incredible.

 

[BuffDog]

I was curious how Roberson (6'7' 210lbs) compared to Bey (6'7" 216lbs) statistically as part of the discussion of whether he will be back next year. Bey's numbers were better than I expected. Roberson averaged 33.4 minutes/game in his 31 games and Bey is averaging 27.7 in his 18 games so far. One other significant change that started last year is that if you aren't drafted you can return to school. This new rule eliminates the risk of him choosing to make himself eligible for the draft since he can return for his senior year if he doesn't get drafted.

	Field goal %	3 pt %	FT%	Avg rebounds	Assists	TO	Block	Steals	Avg Points
Roberson	48	32.8	55.1	11.2	44	74	41	67	10.9
Bey	52.5	47.1	76.6	9.3	33	46	25	31	13.1

 

[BuffDog]

Here is a link to the article I tried to include with my prior post.

 

[Medford M.]

I was curious how Roberson (6'7' 210lbs) compared to Bey (6'7" 216lbs) statistically as part of the discussion of whether he will be back next year. Bey's numbers were better than I expected. Roberson averaged 33.4 minutes/game in his 31 games and Bey is averaging 27.7 in his 18 games so far. One other significant change that started last year is that if you aren't drafted you can return to school. This new rule eliminates the risk of him choosing to make himself eligible for the draft since he can return for his senior year if he doesn't get drafted.

	Field goal %	3 pt %	FT%	Avg rebounds	Assists	TO	Block	Steals	Avg Points
Roberson	48	32.8	55.1	11.2	44	74	41	67	10.9
Bey	52.5	47.1	76.6	9.3	33	46	25	31	13.1

Bey is a much better offensive player than Dre, and he rebounds at a similar rate. He's not the disruptive defender that Dre was though. Actually, Im surprised you were surprised that Tyler compared more than favorably.

 

[Scotch]

Bey should go, no point in him risking injury or a bad senior season.

Not sure about Kin, I think @Goose is right in that he doesn't raise his stock much if at all staying for his senior season. I'd love for him to stay for another tourney run, but if he gets even a 2nd round grade it'd be hard to blame him for leaving.

Has anyone heard anything about Barthelemy? Practice reports on him in the summer and fall were positive.

 

[Daaah]

I wouldn't draft Bey.

 

[Buffnik]

Bey can defend whomever his NBA coach needs him on. He can be manned up with an opposing 2, 3 or 4 every trip while handling limited possessions against a 1 or 5 off switches and rotations.

That alone makes him worthy of a late 1st round pick.

Add the developing range as a guy who could be approaching 40% 30pt shooting in the league - now we’re talking late lottery.

 

[tante]

CU has a deep tourney run this year, into the elite 8. Both Kin and Bey declare for the draft, but are both overlooked. They return to CU on a mission and use th disrespect as motivation. Kin leads the nation in assists with 11 per game and adds 25ppg and Bey averages a double double with 22ppg, 16 boards. Both are named 1st team all American. After CU wins a national championship, they become lottery picks and go on to become rivals on the court and best friends off it.

 

[ahoelsken]

I'm purely looking at it from the standpoint of - "if a player comes back, does it usually help or hurt their stock?" Yeah, there are cases where it helps - and those are great. But a general majority of them it causes them to be more scrutinized and they end up going later. Maybe it's PTSD from Richard Roby, but I'm a firm believer in as soon as you can go - GO.

I agree with Tad's philosophy on this-If a kid is a consensus first round NBA pick, they've gotta go. If not, might need to think more about it.

 

[slider]

Not sure where to put this but Denver is 5-15 and last in conference. I wonder if Rodney B makes it

 

[torero]

Not sure where to put this but Denver is 5-15 and last in conference. I wonder if Rodney B makes it

They're terrible. I went to the DU-Wyoming game last month, and that was some ugly basketball. But they completely revamped the staff this past offseason, I'm pretty sure they give the new staff a couple years to try to figure it out. With that, who are they going to hire? That program is not in a spot to make a change for changes sake.

 

[crosby87]

They're terrible. I went to the DU-Wyoming game last month, and that was some ugly basketball.

Yeah Wyoming head to SDSU tonight as 23 point dogs. They are 0-8 in Conf.

 

[PAHIBuff]

They're terrible. I went to the DU-Wyoming game last month, and that was some ugly basketball. But they completely revamped the staff this past offseason, I'm pretty sure they give the new staff a couple years to try to figure it out. With that, who are they going to hire? That program is not in a spot to make a change for changes sake.

DU can't seem to get into a jazzy enough conference to draw much local interest, or attract a high profile coach. This might have been talked about here before, but has DU ever tried to get into the WCC? Does the WCC ever want to add a team, and at that, a team not in a west coast state? Do you have to be a religious-affiliated school ? Do you have any insight into this stuff Torerobuff? Thanks in advance if you do.