Is CU's success due to a coaching change, players maturing or, as I'd guess, a bit of both?
If we're being honest its simply coaching. This roster is essentially the same as last year's with the addition of a year's experience, and a bit of international experience for Leonard. The actual roster differences are slight: Arianna Freeman as a transfer is now eligible, Monica Burich is playing as a Freshman after missing last season with a medical redshirt, and then Quinessa Caylao-Do and Eleanor Jones joined the team. However, those four don't begin to make up for the loss (to graduation) of Jamie Swan and Lauren Huggins (so far this season to injury?). In my mind there is no comparison in terms of which roster was more capable, last year's or this year's. Now that assumes the same coach is coaching both teams. However, the same coach is not coaching both teams.
What I've been trying to explain to people is that Linda Lappe was a good coach. However, Ceal didn't do her any favors offering her the Buffs job with almost no head coaching experience to speak of. The Buffs were going to play one season in the Big-12 and then transition into a brutally competitive Pac-12. So the regional recruiting map was going to completely change midstream. The way I like to try to explain what happened to Linda is to compare her to JR Payne. Linda's first head coaching job was at Div-II Metro St in Denver. JR Payne's first job was transitioning Div-II Southern Utah to more competitive Div-I. After three years at Metro Linda was 50-36 but actually lost one fewer conference game every season she was there winning 13, 12 then 11. The Roadrunners finished 2nd in Linda's first year in the RMAC, but then 3rd the next two years. This was in Div-II. JR Payne didn't really have better success her first three seasons at Southern Utah. A first time head coach just needs a bit of time to figure it all out, regardless of who they are. JR went 29-60 in her first three seasons, but against Div-I competition. Linda definitely has the better record overall the first three years at 50-36 vs 29-60. While Linda's conference record didn't really change all that much year-to-year the downward trend, if one game less per year is even a trend, was realistically pretty consistent. Whereas Linda won 11-13 conference games every season in her first three seasons as a Head Coach, JR actually started out with just 5 conference wins, then doubled that to 10 the second season and then crashed back to winning just 2 conference games in her third year as a head coach.
I guess the point is that there are some growing pains in becoming a new head coach. Many people have pointed out that after her third year coaching the Roadrunners at Division II Metro State, that Linda wasn't ready to coach in the Big-12, but ultimately the Pac-12. However, I think when people make things personal or attack Linda they miss the point. Linda was/is a good coach, but she just wasn't ready (yet). By that same token, after her third year in Southern Utah neither was JR Payne ready to be the head coach of the Buffs. When Ceal offered Linda the CU job, it was actually Linda's dream job. Standing at her introductory press conference on that windy day, outside, I think a lot of people missed what Linda had to say. She had reservations about getting the job "too soon." However, put yourself in her position. How many among us would have turned down our dream job, at their alma mater, essentially jumping from Div-II past an entry level Div-I job, past a mid-major Div-I job, right into an ACC or Pac-12 gig? Of course she took the job. Yet when Linda took the job she became the youngest coach of any women's basketball coaches at a BCS conference school, and was the third youngest coach overall in Div-I.
Where was CU after Kathy McConnell-Miller was fired? KMM finished 65-88 after five years at CU and was just 20-60 in Big-12 conference play. Linda Lappe coached six years at CU and was 105-92 and finished 39-67 in Big-12/Pac-12 conference play. Linda Lappe took CU to the WNIT three times, at least to the Quarterfinals every time, and to the semifinals once. Linda also guided the Buffs to an NCAA tournament appearance.
I agree with what's been said, Ceal did a huge disservice to Linda to hire her at CU before she had a chance to learn to become the great coach she can be, and still will become someday. I think JR Payne has been a great head coach for the Buffs so far. However, its completely realistic that if Ceal had hired JR Payne out of Southern Utah after just three years and she had just resigned this past season, that we'd all be giddy over the undefeated run Linda Lappe was taking this year's Buffs team on. Maybe Linda gets hired at a lower tier conference Div-I school, has some success and jumps to a mid-major and gets them to the WNIT as JR did. Their roles could easily be reversed. The difference, in my mind between Linda and JR, is that one had the chance to develop and grow as a coach, and one didn't.
So while the difference between last season and this season is coaching, its not quite as simple as just the coach. If any of that makes sense. At some point I'm going to start panicking with the incredible turnaround JR Payne has made with this organization, and start asking questions regarding how big her buyout is, and start advocating that with any contract extensions she receives it be made considerably significant. My nightmare scenario right now is JR Payne leaving a nationally relevant Buffs program to go take an ACC job. I don't think that would ever happen. She's a West Coast coach, through and through. JR Payne was a dream come true hire for the Buffs, and in the world of big-money college athletics I'm not sure fears of losing a good coach are ever truly unfounded.
I guess I just want to say that I do think CU had a good coach in Lappe, only her development as a coach was short circuited by Ceal hiring her when she did. I love where the Buffs are at now. However, anyone who thinks that CU would be where we are now, and going to the heights that JR will take this program, if Ceal had hired JR Payne to coach the Buffs for the 2012-13 season would be fooling themselves in my opinion. You can not shortcut player development, or coaching development.
The Buffs had a good coach in Lappe, but the problem with the Lappe hire was the "when" not the "who." I wouldn't bet against Linda Lappe becoming a Pac-12 coach again, and an incredibly successful one at that. However, before that happens, just like JR Payne, I'd look for a couple more stops on the way first, including heading up a WCC program of her own eventually. Linda Lappe is currently at the University of San Francisco as an assistant coach for the Dons. They are lucky to have her. She'll continue to learn, including from her own mistakes, and I truly believe she can and will be a successful head coach. Maybe twenty years from now we are bemoaning how Ceal hired Linda too soon, and that led to Linda's development and eventual hire at Stanford taking over for VanDerveer. Maybe JR Payne's early success at CU prompts Stanford to steal Payne away in-conference, and maybe eventually ten years from now Linda comes back to the Buffs ready, experienced and prepared to be the coach she was always meant to be. Its just more complicated than just "coaching" but it's also as simple, as the difference between last year and this year is "coaching." Is it fair to say that the difference is also, "timing is everything."