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Wbb Top-25 ranking discussion thread
- Thread starter BoCoBBall
- Start date
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1
I don't like movement in the top-5 in the poll. When #2 Baylor plays #3 UCONN I'm not sure the loser of that game should fall to #5. I can see UCONN moving up to #2, but at worst I'd move Baylor to #3. South Carolina and Louisville did what to move up over Baylor? Louisville played a mid-major traditional power in Middle Tennessee State, but that's about it. Top-5 teams shouldn't move up for beating up the likes of MTSU or Green Bay. They are supposed to.
Also I don't see why Ohio State fell a spot to #8 after losing to South Carolina. By the rankings, weren't they supposed to lose that game? In my mind a 92-80 loss to a top-5 team is a great effort.
Texas was ranked #8 but fell to #14 after losses to #11 Stanford and #7 Mississippi State. I've got to say I've got a HUGE problem with Texas being ranked #14 with a 1-2 record but 3-0 Colorado isn't ranked with a signature win over then #15 Kentucky.
I love the fact that #25 Gonzaga beat #11 Stanford. I've always liked the WCC schools that compete trying to recruit the same territory as the Pac-12. It shouldn't be lost on anyone that JR Payne already was recruiting Pac-12 territory while at Santa Clara, just not the same caliber of players. But those same coaches and club contacts are constant. However, if beating Stanford was enough to get Gonzaga into the top-25, then beating UK should have been enough for CU.
It might be hard to defend, but I'd actually have dropped Texas from the top-25, Gonzaga would be much higher than #25, Stanford would be lower than #11, and Colorado would be ranked this week. I'm a Buffs fan, but quite honestly I was shocked they weren't ranked after the win over #15 UK. That national ranking is a week or a couple of weeks away at the most. Curious to see how high they climb before the Pac-12 conference schedule.
JR Payne's best non-conference record was last year in Santa Clara going 10-4. I'm a homer, but I could see a clean sweep this year and a decent ranking that follows. As it is now the Buffs have 41 votes sitting outside the top-25 behind Auburn and Missouri.
I don't like movement in the top-5 in the poll. When #2 Baylor plays #3 UCONN I'm not sure the loser of that game should fall to #5. I can see UCONN moving up to #2, but at worst I'd move Baylor to #3. South Carolina and Louisville did what to move up over Baylor? Louisville played a mid-major traditional power in Middle Tennessee State, but that's about it. Top-5 teams shouldn't move up for beating up the likes of MTSU or Green Bay. They are supposed to.
Also I don't see why Ohio State fell a spot to #8 after losing to South Carolina. By the rankings, weren't they supposed to lose that game? In my mind a 92-80 loss to a top-5 team is a great effort.
Texas was ranked #8 but fell to #14 after losses to #11 Stanford and #7 Mississippi State. I've got to say I've got a HUGE problem with Texas being ranked #14 with a 1-2 record but 3-0 Colorado isn't ranked with a signature win over then #15 Kentucky.
I love the fact that #25 Gonzaga beat #11 Stanford. I've always liked the WCC schools that compete trying to recruit the same territory as the Pac-12. It shouldn't be lost on anyone that JR Payne already was recruiting Pac-12 territory while at Santa Clara, just not the same caliber of players. But those same coaches and club contacts are constant. However, if beating Stanford was enough to get Gonzaga into the top-25, then beating UK should have been enough for CU.
It might be hard to defend, but I'd actually have dropped Texas from the top-25, Gonzaga would be much higher than #25, Stanford would be lower than #11, and Colorado would be ranked this week. I'm a Buffs fan, but quite honestly I was shocked they weren't ranked after the win over #15 UK. That national ranking is a week or a couple of weeks away at the most. Curious to see how high they climb before the Pac-12 conference schedule.
JR Payne's best non-conference record was last year in Santa Clara going 10-4. I'm a homer, but I could see a clean sweep this year and a decent ranking that follows. As it is now the Buffs have 41 votes sitting outside the top-25 behind Auburn and Missouri.
The typical problem with polls and how they refuse to throw out their preseason, pre-conceived notions once the actual games start. If you're ranked #10 before the season you can screw up pretty badly and still be ranked while a team that started outside the Top 25 and notches quality wins would still have work to do to get ranked.
Over time, it does eventually become about the current season (mostly). But, really, the only poll that I see as legitimately done is the CFP poll in football since they wait until 2 months of the season are in the books before they start ranking.
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings
28th in the AP, but not a single vote in the Coaches Poll. Not a single one. Wow.
28th in the AP, but not a single vote in the Coaches Poll. Not a single one. Wow.
I'd be hesitant to give us one. That looked good, but coming off a bad year without serious roster change, voters will be skeptical. Just gotta keep winning.
MarkW
Well-Known Member
Personally, I don't care that much about whether or not WWB is ranked right now. IF they are truly a top 25 caliber team they will have the opportunity to prove it, in conference play. But first they do need to run the table in non-conference play. The biggest obstacles would appear to be SMU (this Saturday), CSU and perhaps Wyo.
Could help recruiting. Nice PR for the program that could help attendance a bit, too. Otherwise, a November or December ranking is completely irrelevant.
MarkW
Well-Known Member
Absolutely agree on both. Particularly with the attendance.
There must be some Missouri blood in me as I want the Buffs to "Show-Me" that they are deserving of a ranking by winning and winning some more. I don't want it to be based on reputation (which it was at this point in the season two two years ago).
Yes it was based on reputation two years ago. While we do have the win over Kentucky, we have not played another high caliber team to date.
I'm remembering a few years ago when CU went undefeated in the games leading up to conference play and, because of the low quality of the wins, had trouble in the Pac 12.
Buffgal - I'm actually very worried about that same thing repeating itself. I'm not sure where other than Colorado State where CU might have another loss in non-conference. I'd hate to finish non-conference with an undefeated record, and get trounced in the Pac-12 again. If we are honest with ourselves we've only had one season ever in the Pac-12 where we didn't lose 2/3rds of the conference games. This is essentially the same team that only managed two conference wins last season with sixteen losses. What is the experience and maturation of Leonard and Robinson worth in terms of wins? How about the addition of Freeman becoming play eligible after transferring?
I'd like to see JR Payne start scheduling the likes of mid-major powers in Green Bay, Middle Tennessee State, Penn and the good WCC schools in non-conference. CU plays in a brutally competitive conference, and you don't prepare to fight for a heavyweight championship by sparring with people that haven't put on gloves before.
The rankings were released and the Buffs are ranked!
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1
The movement in the top-5 is just silly. Baylor moving up/down and Louisville falling to 7th, just makes no sense. When top-5 teams play when the favorite wins, there shouldn't be movement. Why punish a school for scheduling a very difficult game, that turns out to be against a higher ranked team? Losing to a top-5 team doesn't make a program "worse" than we thought if they were ranked lower. Maryland is in the top-5 though, with two quality wins over Pac-12 Arizona State and Washington State. Ohio State falls to 9th after losing to Baylor? Oklahoma has two of the season's biggest wins over mid-major powerhouses South Dakota State and Colorado State but only moves up one spot to 12th? Those are both legitimate NCAA tournament teams they beat. Washington is at 13th behind UCLA and Stanford, but I'm not sure that shouldn't be reversed. 17th ranked Kentucky plays 12th Oklahoma this week, that should tell us a lot about how "good" UK really is. For Buffs fans we want UK to knock off Oklahoma for the RPI.
When was the last time Colorado was ranked over Tennessee in women's basketball. Believe it, the Buffs are back! Still an injustice that Green Bay isn't ranked though. They almost upset #1 Notre Dame.
I'd like to see JR Payne start scheduling the likes of mid-major powers in Green Bay, Middle Tennessee State, Penn and the good WCC schools in non-conference. CU plays in a brutally competitive conference, and you don't prepare to fight for a heavyweight championship by sparring with people that haven't put on gloves before.
The rankings were released and the Buffs are ranked!
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1
The movement in the top-5 is just silly. Baylor moving up/down and Louisville falling to 7th, just makes no sense. When top-5 teams play when the favorite wins, there shouldn't be movement. Why punish a school for scheduling a very difficult game, that turns out to be against a higher ranked team? Losing to a top-5 team doesn't make a program "worse" than we thought if they were ranked lower. Maryland is in the top-5 though, with two quality wins over Pac-12 Arizona State and Washington State. Ohio State falls to 9th after losing to Baylor? Oklahoma has two of the season's biggest wins over mid-major powerhouses South Dakota State and Colorado State but only moves up one spot to 12th? Those are both legitimate NCAA tournament teams they beat. Washington is at 13th behind UCLA and Stanford, but I'm not sure that shouldn't be reversed. 17th ranked Kentucky plays 12th Oklahoma this week, that should tell us a lot about how "good" UK really is. For Buffs fans we want UK to knock off Oklahoma for the RPI.
When was the last time Colorado was ranked over Tennessee in women's basketball. Believe it, the Buffs are back! Still an injustice that Green Bay isn't ranked though. They almost upset #1 Notre Dame.
Knowing how basketball scheduling is done and the types of teams CU is playing, this non-conference schedule has Lappe written all over it. She thought winning meant confidence. Well the year they went undefeated in the non-conference schedule, it didn't correlate in to Pac 12 wins.
With JR's ties to the WCC, I would expect to see CU scheduling some teams. I do think it's good for CU and the other front range schools to play each other. CSU didn't roll over against Oklahoma, but the game was never close.
Tennessee is not the Tennessee of old. Holly Warlick has had a tough go there since the players recruited by Pat Summit are gone.
With JR's ties to the WCC, I would expect to see CU scheduling some teams. I do think it's good for CU and the other front range schools to play each other. CSU didn't roll over against Oklahoma, but the game was never close.
Tennessee is not the Tennessee of old. Holly Warlick has had a tough go there since the players recruited by Pat Summit are gone.
I was looking things over and I thought the Buffs could move up a bit from being 21st ranked. Syracuse was ranked 20th but lost three games the previous week to Drexel, OSU and 15th ranked DePaul. Florida was two spots ahead being 19th ranked but had a loss to Northwestern the week before and then Pac-12 Arizona State this last week. I thought CU's victory over now 17th ranked Kentucky would shine brighter after UK knocked off 12th ranked Oklahoma, and barely lost (69-67) to 7th ranked Louisville. I really thought we'd see UK jump to at least 12th, and perhaps as high as 8th, dragging CU up the rankings with them. DePaul at 15th lost to UCONN and Baylor so I didn't think they'd fall from 15th. Texas lost two more and has lost twice as many games as its won, but every loss is to a highly ranked team so it doesn't make sense they'd fall from 14th. Oklahoma at 12th lost to UK but then followed that up with a bad loss to Oral Roberts (they play in the Summit league with Denver, and aren't a power there), but they did destroy two monster mid-major powerhouses South Dakota and the lambies.
Rankings came out for week 5. I like the expanded rankings from ESPN because they show the previous ranking, the trend, and even a snapshot of the games every team has played this week and also the previous week:
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/5/seasontype/2
Buffs are 8-0 and moved up to 18th!
Rankings came out for week 5. I like the expanded rankings from ESPN because they show the previous ranking, the trend, and even a snapshot of the games every team has played this week and also the previous week:
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/5/seasontype/2
Buffs are 8-0 and moved up to 18th!
BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
I'm really proud of these young players.
1 vs 2 tomorrow night. Like usual, the top few appear to be heads and shoulders above the rest, but the difference between the top few is not as big. Baylor lost @ Uconn by 12, but last year that would've been 20+. Rooting for ND, just because I can't stand UConn to be THE one yet again
Interested in a larger conversation about expectations. We've seen the Buffs probably not make it into the top-25 probably a week or so longer than they should have been. They obviously should have immediately jumped into the top-25 with the huge quality win over UK. Maybe the thought was everyone reevaluated how good UK really was, thinking they were overrated? Looking back through the lens of UK's non-conference games since its easy to see that UK is a great team with a win over 12th ranked Oklahoma. Maybe UK's earlier 13th ranking was even a spot or two too low?
Let's talk CU expectations. Where before this season started did you see the Buffs finishing this season out? Since the Buffs joined the Pac-12 the Buffs only have 33 total Pac-12 wins in five seasons, they average about 6 wins per season and 12 losses. Based on the fact that the Buffs only won 2 Pac-12 games all of last season, what was your expectation for this season based on hoping to see some improvement and with the transition to a new staff and schemes? Could we even have realistically expected to get to our typical 6-12 Pac-12 record with a new coach and schemes?
I honestly didn't really know what to expect for the Pac-12 season or even the non-conference schedule. JR Payne really impressed me. She's found a huge signature win with Santa Clara, a WCC school, over Stanford the Pac-12 flagship program and perennial national top-5/10 program. To me that's like Northern Colorado upsetting the Buffs back in the days when CU was ranked #4 under Ceal Berry, well almost. Obviously there is more of a pull to the WCC with the scholarships to a private liberal arts college. So maybe it would be like Colorado College upsetting CU, if they even played Div-I athletics (aside from hockey) and were in a conference with other private schools of similar metrics. I think we knew that JR Payne could coach. She took on the huge project of transitioning Southern Utah to Div-I, then transitioning again from the Summit league to the Big Sky conference and within five seasons had the program in the WNIT, tied for 1st in the Big Sky conference. Moving to the Santa Clara job JR basically had a existent program and recruiting region, and in just her 2nd season had that program completely turned around and found the Stanford win and the WNIT bid. I believed that the CU roster had some very talented basketball players, but regardless of how good they were in high school the Pac-12 is a whole different metric. Quite honestly, I thought by the Pac-12 yardstick this roster wasn't competitive in our hyper competitive conference. Realistically, this roster showed it wasn't really competitive even in the non-conference schedule last season. I think we've all been blown away by what a brilliant hire JR Payne turned out to be, even though we were all hoping for the best. To take a non-competitive program
I think the thing I wanted to believe, but didn't really expect, was to see just how effective JR Payne could be. It still remains to be seen just how competitive the Buffs can be in the Pac-12 conference, but I think we've all seen just how much has been gained by improving the offensive and defensive schemes, and making a culture change. Several years ago in football, under Jon Embree, it was commonly noted that the Buffs had the worst coordination in Div-I, both offensive and defensively. I'm beginning to wonder just how poorly the Buffs have actually been in women's basketball. In my mind there might be four things in play: Offensive coordination, Defensive Coordination, Culture and Player Development. Obviously, recruiting is more important than really anything, but between last season's roster and this season's roster, the main difference is Freeman becoming eligible as a transfer and Caylao-Do coming on board. Eleanor Jones is incredibly athletic, but plays limited minutes and is battling shoulder injuries. Sure Burich is finally playing, but losing Huggins and Swan in my mind leaves the 2016-17 team significantly behind the 2015-16 roster (even experience for Robinson/Leonard considered). So playing with a roster minus Huggins and Swan, I never in a million years imagined this team would threaten or put up over 100 points in non-confernce games or knock off a top-15 team. I think great coaches are just great coaches. JR Payne is taking Linda Lappe's team, essentially, and showing these young women a team potential that I'm not sure that any of them realized was even possible this season. As a fan, I certainly didn't think this potential was there. This has all been such an exciting and unexpected turnaround.
I think other than SMU (and obviously UK) Colorado State has the highest rating of any team Colorado has played thus far. Jeff Sagarin has several predictive metrics on his ratings page:
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
All are predictive in their own sense. How the CU-CSU game should play out per the different Sagarin metrics:
CU 83-79 CSU by Rating
CU 83-79 CSU by Predictor
CU 83-78 CSU by Golden Mean
Just for context Sagarin's ratings, by strength (decreasing):
Kentucky 13th (91)
Colorado State 62nd (79)
Wyoming 113th (71)
Northern Colo. 118th (71)
SMU 130th (70)
Boston College 165th (56) [note CU did not actually play BC, but we saw them in the Omni Classic]
Idaho St. 215th (62)
North Dakota St. 296th (54)
Air Force 313th (52)
St Francis-Brooklyn 316th (51)
Southeastern LA 334th (46)
Mississippi Valley St. 348th (37)
So what should our expectations be for the Pac-12 season? Well I think I still don't know. While the Buffs are ranked 18th nationally, Sagarin's ratings have the Buffs ranked just 38th. Where is the rest of the Pac-12 according to Sagarin's ratings:
Washington 8th (95)
Stanford 11th (92)
UCLA 12th (91)
Oregon St. 25th (86)
Oregon 26th (86)
California 28th (86)
Arizona St. 30th (85)
Washington St. 36th (84)
Utah 37th (83)
Southern Cal 41st (82)
Arizona 111nd (72)
Whereas, again, CU is 38th (83).
The Buffs have three non-conference games remaining. Both CSU and Wyoming represent the two most most competitive teams the Buffs have faced this season, other thank UK. Yet both CSU and Wyoming are poor indicators of future Pac-12 performance. Only two teams in the Pac-12 is do not have a superior Sagarin rating to the Buffs. CU should pick up two wins against lowly Arizona (who JR Payne turned down along with New Mexico to take the CU job). Even Southern Cal is just a single point in rating below CU. The Pac-12 as always is an incredibly competitive conference. Why its been an amazing run to get back into the top-25 national rankings, what should be our expectations for how the Buffs play in the Pac-12 and finish in the national rankings? Essentially almost every single game the Buffs play in the Pac-12 will be against an opponent with a superior Sagarin rating. Only Southern Cal and Utah being about par with CU, and only Arizona being below CU by any margin. This should be an incredibly exciting Pac-12 season. By the numbers CU can hope to sweep Arizona for two wins. Where do the rest of the wins come from? I think the CSU and Wyoming games are going to tell us a lot about this Buff team.
JR Payne has been masterful at limiting players minutes and playing a true team game. This team is insulated with the deep rotations from any given player having an off night shooting or with decision making. Every player on this team is seeing multiple roles and rotations, and getting used to playing with a variety of other players on the floor. I see a team of Starters, and in non-conference play so far, also finishers. It will be exciting to see how the minutes play out against CSU and Wyoming. Realistically, I think the Sagarin ratings tell us where the Buffs really are, as the national ranking, while deserved, is probably overstated. I truly think the Buffs can beat CSU and Wyoming, and should, giving the Buffs an undefeated non-conference schedule. However, three teams in the Pac-12 have a rating equal to UK, or better, and eight teams have a rating better than the Buffs. Two teams have a more or less equal rating to the Buffs, and only one team really has a lower rating.
Bringing us back to what should be expect? I'm just hoping to see continuing development and to see CU handle CSU and Wyoming. Just want to see an upward trend. Then hope for the best in a brutally competitive Pac-12 season. There are 18 Pac-12 games. What is reasonable in terms of wins?
Let's talk CU expectations. Where before this season started did you see the Buffs finishing this season out? Since the Buffs joined the Pac-12 the Buffs only have 33 total Pac-12 wins in five seasons, they average about 6 wins per season and 12 losses. Based on the fact that the Buffs only won 2 Pac-12 games all of last season, what was your expectation for this season based on hoping to see some improvement and with the transition to a new staff and schemes? Could we even have realistically expected to get to our typical 6-12 Pac-12 record with a new coach and schemes?
I honestly didn't really know what to expect for the Pac-12 season or even the non-conference schedule. JR Payne really impressed me. She's found a huge signature win with Santa Clara, a WCC school, over Stanford the Pac-12 flagship program and perennial national top-5/10 program. To me that's like Northern Colorado upsetting the Buffs back in the days when CU was ranked #4 under Ceal Berry, well almost. Obviously there is more of a pull to the WCC with the scholarships to a private liberal arts college. So maybe it would be like Colorado College upsetting CU, if they even played Div-I athletics (aside from hockey) and were in a conference with other private schools of similar metrics. I think we knew that JR Payne could coach. She took on the huge project of transitioning Southern Utah to Div-I, then transitioning again from the Summit league to the Big Sky conference and within five seasons had the program in the WNIT, tied for 1st in the Big Sky conference. Moving to the Santa Clara job JR basically had a existent program and recruiting region, and in just her 2nd season had that program completely turned around and found the Stanford win and the WNIT bid. I believed that the CU roster had some very talented basketball players, but regardless of how good they were in high school the Pac-12 is a whole different metric. Quite honestly, I thought by the Pac-12 yardstick this roster wasn't competitive in our hyper competitive conference. Realistically, this roster showed it wasn't really competitive even in the non-conference schedule last season. I think we've all been blown away by what a brilliant hire JR Payne turned out to be, even though we were all hoping for the best. To take a non-competitive program
I think the thing I wanted to believe, but didn't really expect, was to see just how effective JR Payne could be. It still remains to be seen just how competitive the Buffs can be in the Pac-12 conference, but I think we've all seen just how much has been gained by improving the offensive and defensive schemes, and making a culture change. Several years ago in football, under Jon Embree, it was commonly noted that the Buffs had the worst coordination in Div-I, both offensive and defensively. I'm beginning to wonder just how poorly the Buffs have actually been in women's basketball. In my mind there might be four things in play: Offensive coordination, Defensive Coordination, Culture and Player Development. Obviously, recruiting is more important than really anything, but between last season's roster and this season's roster, the main difference is Freeman becoming eligible as a transfer and Caylao-Do coming on board. Eleanor Jones is incredibly athletic, but plays limited minutes and is battling shoulder injuries. Sure Burich is finally playing, but losing Huggins and Swan in my mind leaves the 2016-17 team significantly behind the 2015-16 roster (even experience for Robinson/Leonard considered). So playing with a roster minus Huggins and Swan, I never in a million years imagined this team would threaten or put up over 100 points in non-confernce games or knock off a top-15 team. I think great coaches are just great coaches. JR Payne is taking Linda Lappe's team, essentially, and showing these young women a team potential that I'm not sure that any of them realized was even possible this season. As a fan, I certainly didn't think this potential was there. This has all been such an exciting and unexpected turnaround.
I think other than SMU (and obviously UK) Colorado State has the highest rating of any team Colorado has played thus far. Jeff Sagarin has several predictive metrics on his ratings page:
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
All are predictive in their own sense. How the CU-CSU game should play out per the different Sagarin metrics:
CU 83-79 CSU by Rating
CU 83-79 CSU by Predictor
CU 83-78 CSU by Golden Mean
Just for context Sagarin's ratings, by strength (decreasing):
Kentucky 13th (91)
Colorado State 62nd (79)
Wyoming 113th (71)
Northern Colo. 118th (71)
SMU 130th (70)
Boston College 165th (56) [note CU did not actually play BC, but we saw them in the Omni Classic]
Idaho St. 215th (62)
North Dakota St. 296th (54)
Air Force 313th (52)
St Francis-Brooklyn 316th (51)
Southeastern LA 334th (46)
Mississippi Valley St. 348th (37)
So what should our expectations be for the Pac-12 season? Well I think I still don't know. While the Buffs are ranked 18th nationally, Sagarin's ratings have the Buffs ranked just 38th. Where is the rest of the Pac-12 according to Sagarin's ratings:
Washington 8th (95)
Stanford 11th (92)
UCLA 12th (91)
Oregon St. 25th (86)
Oregon 26th (86)
California 28th (86)
Arizona St. 30th (85)
Washington St. 36th (84)
Utah 37th (83)
Southern Cal 41st (82)
Arizona 111nd (72)
Whereas, again, CU is 38th (83).
The Buffs have three non-conference games remaining. Both CSU and Wyoming represent the two most most competitive teams the Buffs have faced this season, other thank UK. Yet both CSU and Wyoming are poor indicators of future Pac-12 performance. Only two teams in the Pac-12 is do not have a superior Sagarin rating to the Buffs. CU should pick up two wins against lowly Arizona (who JR Payne turned down along with New Mexico to take the CU job). Even Southern Cal is just a single point in rating below CU. The Pac-12 as always is an incredibly competitive conference. Why its been an amazing run to get back into the top-25 national rankings, what should be our expectations for how the Buffs play in the Pac-12 and finish in the national rankings? Essentially almost every single game the Buffs play in the Pac-12 will be against an opponent with a superior Sagarin rating. Only Southern Cal and Utah being about par with CU, and only Arizona being below CU by any margin. This should be an incredibly exciting Pac-12 season. By the numbers CU can hope to sweep Arizona for two wins. Where do the rest of the wins come from? I think the CSU and Wyoming games are going to tell us a lot about this Buff team.
JR Payne has been masterful at limiting players minutes and playing a true team game. This team is insulated with the deep rotations from any given player having an off night shooting or with decision making. Every player on this team is seeing multiple roles and rotations, and getting used to playing with a variety of other players on the floor. I see a team of Starters, and in non-conference play so far, also finishers. It will be exciting to see how the minutes play out against CSU and Wyoming. Realistically, I think the Sagarin ratings tell us where the Buffs really are, as the national ranking, while deserved, is probably overstated. I truly think the Buffs can beat CSU and Wyoming, and should, giving the Buffs an undefeated non-conference schedule. However, three teams in the Pac-12 have a rating equal to UK, or better, and eight teams have a rating better than the Buffs. Two teams have a more or less equal rating to the Buffs, and only one team really has a lower rating.
Bringing us back to what should be expect? I'm just hoping to see continuing development and to see CU handle CSU and Wyoming. Just want to see an upward trend. Then hope for the best in a brutally competitive Pac-12 season. There are 18 Pac-12 games. What is reasonable in terms of wins?
Great analysis.
I like that the players have bought in to JR's system. They believe. Players have to believe if they are going to win. Every interview, the players say they are having fun. That is a big component of this season. There was no fun last season for the players.
I am hoping we can go undefeated in the non-conference. In the Pac 12, I am hoping for a minimum of 6 wins. I think they should be able to beat Arizona, USC and Utah (even though they always give CU problems). An upset or two will also happen. Perhaps they win 8 games in the Pac. Major improvement.
I like that the players have bought in to JR's system. They believe. Players have to believe if they are going to win. Every interview, the players say they are having fun. That is a big component of this season. There was no fun last season for the players.
I am hoping we can go undefeated in the non-conference. In the Pac 12, I am hoping for a minimum of 6 wins. I think they should be able to beat Arizona, USC and Utah (even though they always give CU problems). An upset or two will also happen. Perhaps they win 8 games in the Pac. Major improvement.
Buffballer
Well-Known Member
BoCoBBall--WOW, that's alot of information and an interesting analysis. I think we only play the Arizona schools and the SoCal schools once this season.
MarkW
Well-Known Member
I could never put in the evaluation effort that that BoCo has, but . . . I would say at this point CU is most likely a bit over rated at #18. And yes, for the most part the opposition hasn't been very good, Kentucky and perhaps SMU excepted. When conference play hits, there won't have any breaks like they do now after a tough game. Win or lose they will have to be ready to go twice a week against good opposition. The flip side is, as BoCO has pointed out, almost every player on the roster is in the rotation. This means no one will be worn out come conference play and if a couple of players are having a tough time there are others that can step in. We've already seen games where Kennedy and Robinson struggle to score and the team doesn't seem to skip a beat.
Thus far CU hasn't been in a game that's been in doubt in the last minute. It will be interesting to see how they react when that happens.
One on-going concern is rebounding. It's been a weakness f more often than not this season.
If CU beats CSU they will go undefeated in non-conference play. MVSU and Wyo aren't going to beat the Buffs.
Thus far CU hasn't been in a game that's been in doubt in the last minute. It will be interesting to see how they react when that happens.
One on-going concern is rebounding. It's been a weakness f more often than not this season.
If CU beats CSU they will go undefeated in non-conference play. MVSU and Wyo aren't going to beat the Buffs.
Doesn't look like there will be much movement at all in front of the Buffs in the AP top-25. UK still plays Arizona State, so the Buffs might have a chance to move up a bit, but I'm not sure that CU isn't actually rooting for UK in that one to protect the RPI, more so than just wanting to eke ahead of UK in the rankings. Doesn't it kind of feel like you want your best win to win out, kind of thing?
Playing a quality opponent in CSU did really help CU though. The Buffs moved up three spots in the Sagarin ratings moving ahead of Utah. Considering that Sagarin calculates a home game as being worth 3.07 points, there are only two teams in the Pac-12 the Buffs wouldn't be "favored" against at the CEC, Stanford and UCLA.
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
Think about that for a minute. Considering everything this team went through last season, with Linda Lappe leaving, the new coaching hire, and all the uncertainty. To sit here today at 9-0 and have the Sagarin ratings suggesting the Buffs will be favored at home against every team in the Pac-12 save but two, that's just staggering. Holy cow, was JR Payne the best hire of the Bohn or George AD era or what? Can't wait to get into the Pac-12 season. I'm not sure we don't see the Buffs upset Stanford at home January 15th. I don't think even Northern California teams like traveling to Colorado in the winter. For some players the snow and weather are a distraction. I still don't know what I'm looking at with this Buffs team. I do not think the Buffs are the 18th best team in the country. I'm think if the Buffs faced South Dakota, South Dakota State, and Green Bay right now we'd come out with a 1-2 record. However, I also think that come January 15th when we play Stanford its realistic we'll lose a very close game to USC and then a wider margin to UCLA on the road to open up the Pac-12 season at 0-2 in conference, but the Buffs are "favored" then at home against Arizona, Arizona State and Cal.
One way or the other, after the game against Stanford on January 15th. we'll finally know what to reasonably expect this season in Pac-12 play. Its entirely possible that the Buffs are 3-2 in conference going into that game, and if the Buffs finally knock off Stanford (in front of VanDerveer's mom no less) I've got to think the Buffs will reap the rewards on the recruiting trail.
I keep looking at the 2018 ESPN Top-100, to see where prospects are committing to:
http://www.espn.com/high-school/girls-basketball/recruiting/rankings/_/class/2018
Somebody tell #1 overall 6'4" Post Olivia Nelson-Ododa (98/5-star grade) that she can come and play for a top-20 program AND start immediately as a Freshman and get long starters minutes in one of the best women's basketball conferences around! Who else is going to offer her that package in the top-20? I just really want to see 2018 recruiting gets from the national recognition the Buffs are receiving right now. I know it takes time, but pretty soon that top-100 list is going to show commitments to teams lower ranked than Colorado. Who can we realistically get on that list besides Robinson?
Playing a quality opponent in CSU did really help CU though. The Buffs moved up three spots in the Sagarin ratings moving ahead of Utah. Considering that Sagarin calculates a home game as being worth 3.07 points, there are only two teams in the Pac-12 the Buffs wouldn't be "favored" against at the CEC, Stanford and UCLA.
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
Think about that for a minute. Considering everything this team went through last season, with Linda Lappe leaving, the new coaching hire, and all the uncertainty. To sit here today at 9-0 and have the Sagarin ratings suggesting the Buffs will be favored at home against every team in the Pac-12 save but two, that's just staggering. Holy cow, was JR Payne the best hire of the Bohn or George AD era or what? Can't wait to get into the Pac-12 season. I'm not sure we don't see the Buffs upset Stanford at home January 15th. I don't think even Northern California teams like traveling to Colorado in the winter. For some players the snow and weather are a distraction. I still don't know what I'm looking at with this Buffs team. I do not think the Buffs are the 18th best team in the country. I'm think if the Buffs faced South Dakota, South Dakota State, and Green Bay right now we'd come out with a 1-2 record. However, I also think that come January 15th when we play Stanford its realistic we'll lose a very close game to USC and then a wider margin to UCLA on the road to open up the Pac-12 season at 0-2 in conference, but the Buffs are "favored" then at home against Arizona, Arizona State and Cal.
One way or the other, after the game against Stanford on January 15th. we'll finally know what to reasonably expect this season in Pac-12 play. Its entirely possible that the Buffs are 3-2 in conference going into that game, and if the Buffs finally knock off Stanford (in front of VanDerveer's mom no less) I've got to think the Buffs will reap the rewards on the recruiting trail.
I keep looking at the 2018 ESPN Top-100, to see where prospects are committing to:
http://www.espn.com/high-school/girls-basketball/recruiting/rankings/_/class/2018
Somebody tell #1 overall 6'4" Post Olivia Nelson-Ododa (98/5-star grade) that she can come and play for a top-20 program AND start immediately as a Freshman and get long starters minutes in one of the best women's basketball conferences around! Who else is going to offer her that package in the top-20? I just really want to see 2018 recruiting gets from the national recognition the Buffs are receiving right now. I know it takes time, but pretty soon that top-100 list is going to show commitments to teams lower ranked than Colorado. Who can we realistically get on that list besides Robinson?
CUoldtimer
Well-Known Member
ESPN only has a top 60 right now. I'm not sure when the top 100 list comes out but if you check the recruiting board, we are recruiting Cosgrove and Swartz. Cosgrove is top 50. I'm not sure if Swartz makes it or not.
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You are definitely right. I was looking at the top-60 list, not a top-100 for 2018. Clicking the link shows they call is the Super 60.
Buffs fans we have to be excited about the opportunity to finish the non-conference portion of the schedule undefeated. As-of this post the last non-conference game is tomorrow night against Wyoming. JR Payne didn't put this non-conference schedule together, its a vestige of the previous staff. For whatever reason, Linda never really wanted a competitive non-conference schedule. The thing I couldn't understand was that since the Pac-12 is a brutally competitive conference, how playing a non-competitive Div-I non-conference schedule prepared the team for the Pac-12 portion of the schedule. The thing is I didn't need to understand it, as I wasn't the coach and it was her prerogative to schedule as she saw fit.
Still I think an argument can be made, regarding what is needed to prepare a team to compete in the Pac-12. If we unpack Sagarin's NCAAW rankings right now for conferences (not teams):
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
Sure UCONN might be the #1 ranked team in the country, but the #1 conference well that's the Pac-12!
Sagarin uses three different methodologies to rank conferences:
Central Mean
Simple Average (Arithmetic Mean)
Win 50%
With the conference schedule looming, the Win 50% metric is the most relevant right now. Simply put, it is the NCAAW Sagarin rating a team needs to to win 50% of their conference games on a neutral court. The Pac-12 has the highest Win 50% metric of any conference in the country at 86.16, what that means is that a team in the Pac-12 needs a Sagarin NCAAW rating of 86.16 just to finish 9-9 in the conference (if games were played on neutral courts). In Sagarin's ratings the home team has an advantage (right now) of 3.04 to their rating when playing on the home court, as conference games usually are. For the most part the home/road advantage is a wash, except in very very good conferences. In order to just be competitively neutral in the Pac-12 winning half the conference games and losing the other half, a team needs an 86.16 Sagarin rating. The problem is that is a very high rating. Right now that would be good for being 30th in all of NCAAW. So in order to just be an average Pac-12 team, neither winning more nor less than half the program's conference games, a team needs to be hovering around being the 30th best team in all of NCAAW nationally. That's just pretty incredible.
After the tough showing against MVSU, the CU Buffs fell down to an 82.35 Sagarin NCAAW rating.
The current Sagarin Conference ratings by Win50% (rating needed to win half of conf. games on neutral court):
1.) Pac-12 86.16
2.) Big-12 85.44
3.) SEC 84.13
4.) Atlantic Coast 83.59
5.) Big-10 80.35
6.) Big East 75.30
7.) American Athletic 73.43
8.) West Coast 69.67
9.) Mid-American 69.29
10.) Colonial 68.63
11.) Mountain West 67.88
12.) Summit 68.00
13.) Atlantic-10 67.55
14.) Ivy 67.50
15.) Conference USA 66.79
16.) Big West 64.69
17.) Big Sky 64.34
18.) Missouri Valley 63.40
19.) Horizon 61.84
20.) Southern 61.43
21.) Metro Atlantic 61.31
22.) Patriot 61.04
23.) America East 60.67
24.) WAC 60.48
25.) Sun Belt 60.48
26.) Ohio Valley 58.56
27.) Atlantic Sun 56.56
28.) Big South 55.18
29.) Southland 54.60
30.) Northeast 52.43
31.) Mid-Eastern 51.70
32.) Southwestern 47.86
Within the actual Pac-12 the team ratings currently look like this ranked by Sagarin rating (also AP poll ranking):
8.) Washington (ranked #9th nationally in AP poll) - 97.07
10.) UCLA (#10th AP) - 93.33
13.) Stanford (#14th AP) - 91.13
22.) Oregon State (#25th AP) - 88.43
24.) Arizona State (#21st AP) - 88.07
27.) Oregon - 86.82
31.) California - 85.53
34.) Utah - 84.69
43.) Colorado (#15th AP) - 82.35
44.) Southern Cal - 81.79
47.) Washington State - 81.39
111.) Arizona - 71.95
Which reveals something interesting. Why are the Buffs ranked so high in the AP poll, if FIVE different Pac-12 teams are actually playing better basketball by the Sagarin algorithm? Therein lies the fun of the AP top-25 poll. As far as I can tell the NCAAW AP top-25 poll is put together by polling 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the country. One's Alma Mater, rivalries, and even contracts and personal politics can obviously influence something as subjective as a human poll. The Sagarin ratings are a function of data, and aren't as subjective, but they aren't nearly as fun either!
Are the Buffs the 15th best team in the country? Probably not, not by a long shot. In fact the Buffs are currently ranked as the 9th best team in the Pac-12, and per the Buffs own data are probably closer to being the 43rd best team in the country right now, than being the 15th. If we bring in the USA Today Coach's poll they don't have the Buffs in the top-25. The Buffs sit in position #26 just outside the poll, with 67 votes. Even that position is probably undeserved, as Green Bay only has 9 votes. Green Bay has played the 15th most competitive SOS (strength of schedule), whereas the Buffs have played the 323rd least competitive SOS so far. In fact, there are only 349 team in NCAAW Div-I, so there are only 26 teams that actually managed to play a lower SOS in non-conference than the Buffs.
Let's take a look at how other Pac-12 schools have prepared in getting ready for conference play ranked by Strength of Schedule:
1.) Arizona State - 17th
2.) Washington State - 20th
3.) UCLA - 28th
4.) Stanford - 74th
5.) USC - 142nd
6.) Utah - 159th
7.) Washington - 139th
8.) Oregon State - 168th
9.) Oregon - 169th
10.) Cal - 183rd
11.) Arizona - 273rd
12.) Colorado - 323rd
One thing that starts to jump off the page is that Linda used to schedule non-conference games completely as an outlier compared to the rest of the Pac-12. Even lowly Arizona is playing a SOS some 50 positions higher than the Buffs. I'm not sure how far out the Buffs schedule their games, but I did read that Boise State (at least I think it was Boise State) backed out of the game with CU, and that necessitated the MVSU game on the schedule. Boise State has a 76.21 Sagarin NCAAW rating, and has played the 98th highest SOS thus far. Both are comparable metrics to CSU (76.79, 99th), which is in the MW with BSU.
Are the Buffs "as bad" as they showed against one of the three worst teams in all of NCAAW? Probably not. The time of the year, finals, being in the deep south and traveling by bus probably had its toll on the players. A small program like MVSU playing against a nationally ranked Buffs squad, and we can probably imagine we've seen the best effort MVSU can put forth. Good for them.
Should CU have dropped in the AP top-25 poll as a result of that strange but tough game? Probably not, and they did not:
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/7/seasontype/2
Buffs held at #15 in the AP poll.
Still I think an argument can be made, regarding what is needed to prepare a team to compete in the Pac-12. If we unpack Sagarin's NCAAW rankings right now for conferences (not teams):
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
Sure UCONN might be the #1 ranked team in the country, but the #1 conference well that's the Pac-12!
Sagarin uses three different methodologies to rank conferences:
Central Mean
Simple Average (Arithmetic Mean)
Win 50%
With the conference schedule looming, the Win 50% metric is the most relevant right now. Simply put, it is the NCAAW Sagarin rating a team needs to to win 50% of their conference games on a neutral court. The Pac-12 has the highest Win 50% metric of any conference in the country at 86.16, what that means is that a team in the Pac-12 needs a Sagarin NCAAW rating of 86.16 just to finish 9-9 in the conference (if games were played on neutral courts). In Sagarin's ratings the home team has an advantage (right now) of 3.04 to their rating when playing on the home court, as conference games usually are. For the most part the home/road advantage is a wash, except in very very good conferences. In order to just be competitively neutral in the Pac-12 winning half the conference games and losing the other half, a team needs an 86.16 Sagarin rating. The problem is that is a very high rating. Right now that would be good for being 30th in all of NCAAW. So in order to just be an average Pac-12 team, neither winning more nor less than half the program's conference games, a team needs to be hovering around being the 30th best team in all of NCAAW nationally. That's just pretty incredible.
After the tough showing against MVSU, the CU Buffs fell down to an 82.35 Sagarin NCAAW rating.
The current Sagarin Conference ratings by Win50% (rating needed to win half of conf. games on neutral court):
1.) Pac-12 86.16
2.) Big-12 85.44
3.) SEC 84.13
4.) Atlantic Coast 83.59
5.) Big-10 80.35
6.) Big East 75.30
7.) American Athletic 73.43
8.) West Coast 69.67
9.) Mid-American 69.29
10.) Colonial 68.63
11.) Mountain West 67.88
12.) Summit 68.00
13.) Atlantic-10 67.55
14.) Ivy 67.50
15.) Conference USA 66.79
16.) Big West 64.69
17.) Big Sky 64.34
18.) Missouri Valley 63.40
19.) Horizon 61.84
20.) Southern 61.43
21.) Metro Atlantic 61.31
22.) Patriot 61.04
23.) America East 60.67
24.) WAC 60.48
25.) Sun Belt 60.48
26.) Ohio Valley 58.56
27.) Atlantic Sun 56.56
28.) Big South 55.18
29.) Southland 54.60
30.) Northeast 52.43
31.) Mid-Eastern 51.70
32.) Southwestern 47.86
Within the actual Pac-12 the team ratings currently look like this ranked by Sagarin rating (also AP poll ranking):
8.) Washington (ranked #9th nationally in AP poll) - 97.07
10.) UCLA (#10th AP) - 93.33
13.) Stanford (#14th AP) - 91.13
22.) Oregon State (#25th AP) - 88.43
24.) Arizona State (#21st AP) - 88.07
27.) Oregon - 86.82
31.) California - 85.53
34.) Utah - 84.69
43.) Colorado (#15th AP) - 82.35
44.) Southern Cal - 81.79
47.) Washington State - 81.39
111.) Arizona - 71.95
Which reveals something interesting. Why are the Buffs ranked so high in the AP poll, if FIVE different Pac-12 teams are actually playing better basketball by the Sagarin algorithm? Therein lies the fun of the AP top-25 poll. As far as I can tell the NCAAW AP top-25 poll is put together by polling 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the country. One's Alma Mater, rivalries, and even contracts and personal politics can obviously influence something as subjective as a human poll. The Sagarin ratings are a function of data, and aren't as subjective, but they aren't nearly as fun either!
Are the Buffs the 15th best team in the country? Probably not, not by a long shot. In fact the Buffs are currently ranked as the 9th best team in the Pac-12, and per the Buffs own data are probably closer to being the 43rd best team in the country right now, than being the 15th. If we bring in the USA Today Coach's poll they don't have the Buffs in the top-25. The Buffs sit in position #26 just outside the poll, with 67 votes. Even that position is probably undeserved, as Green Bay only has 9 votes. Green Bay has played the 15th most competitive SOS (strength of schedule), whereas the Buffs have played the 323rd least competitive SOS so far. In fact, there are only 349 team in NCAAW Div-I, so there are only 26 teams that actually managed to play a lower SOS in non-conference than the Buffs.
Let's take a look at how other Pac-12 schools have prepared in getting ready for conference play ranked by Strength of Schedule:
1.) Arizona State - 17th
2.) Washington State - 20th
3.) UCLA - 28th
4.) Stanford - 74th
5.) USC - 142nd
6.) Utah - 159th
7.) Washington - 139th
8.) Oregon State - 168th
9.) Oregon - 169th
10.) Cal - 183rd
11.) Arizona - 273rd
12.) Colorado - 323rd
One thing that starts to jump off the page is that Linda used to schedule non-conference games completely as an outlier compared to the rest of the Pac-12. Even lowly Arizona is playing a SOS some 50 positions higher than the Buffs. I'm not sure how far out the Buffs schedule their games, but I did read that Boise State (at least I think it was Boise State) backed out of the game with CU, and that necessitated the MVSU game on the schedule. Boise State has a 76.21 Sagarin NCAAW rating, and has played the 98th highest SOS thus far. Both are comparable metrics to CSU (76.79, 99th), which is in the MW with BSU.
Are the Buffs "as bad" as they showed against one of the three worst teams in all of NCAAW? Probably not. The time of the year, finals, being in the deep south and traveling by bus probably had its toll on the players. A small program like MVSU playing against a nationally ranked Buffs squad, and we can probably imagine we've seen the best effort MVSU can put forth. Good for them.
Should CU have dropped in the AP top-25 poll as a result of that strange but tough game? Probably not, and they did not:
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/7/seasontype/2
Buffs held at #15 in the AP poll.
So what should change in the AP top-25 poll and what did change?
Well UCLA fell from 9th to 10th (lost to #6 South Carolina 66-57)
Washington rose from 11th to 9th
Miami rose from 13th to 11th
West Virginia moved from 14th to 13th
Stanford fell from 10th to 14th (lost to unranked Lady Vols 59-51)
Colorado stands pat at 15th
Duke moves up to 17th from 18th
UK moves up to 18th from 19th (plays Washington State on Dec. 21)
Arizona State moves up to 21st-tie from 23rd (Quality win over mid-major power Middle Tennessee State)
South Florida moves to 21st-tie from 22nd
Virginia Tech moves to 23rd from 24th
Kansas State joins the AP top-25 at 24th
Oregon State joins the AP top-25 at 25th
DePaul drops off the AP top-25 poll after losing to #2 Notre Dame two weeks ago and Temple last week
Oregon drops off the AP top-25 poll after losing to Ole Miss 83-67
On the bubble but receiving votes (#25 Oregon State has 69 votes):
DePaul 63
California 34
Florida 28
Northwestern 24
Oregon 18
Oklahoma State 16
USC 12
Texas A&M 6
UNLV 6
Tennessee 4
Auburn 3
Vanderbilt 3
Ole Miss 2
Gonzaga 2
Green Bay 1
Several thoughts:
Normallly the AP poll punishes playing top ranked teams but 12th ranked Ohio State didn't drop after playing #1` UCONN, and losing 82-63. Why does UCLA fall for playing #6 and losing but #12 doesn't fall for losing to #1? Who knows!
Green Bay Phoenix. Where to start? They played the, then, #1 team in the country, Notre Dame, and barely lost 71-67 but are only receiving a single vote in the AP top-25? Green Bay beat Drake and Marquette, and Green Bay lost by a single point to Big-10 Wisconsin. Green Bay absolutely destroyed the Summit league mid-major power South Dakota State Jackrabbits 67-43. The SDSU Jackrabbits are probably a good placeholder for the CU Buffs right now. Per Sagarin's NCAAW ratings the Buffs are 43rd at 82.35 and the Jackrabbits are 49th at 81.30, the teams are very close. Playing at home Sagarin predicts the Jackrabbits would upset the Buffs by about two points. So how can the CU Buffs be ranked 15th overall in the nation but a Horizon league mid-major power like Green Bay can't get but a single vote? Sagarin's ratings have Green Bay as the 14th best team in the country right after Stanford and ahead of West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio State. Green Bay is actually ranked as a better team per the Sagarin ratings over EVERY team in the Pac-12 except Washington, UCLA and Stanford. If playing at home the Phoenix would be favored over all but Washington by the Sagarin ratings.
So what is the point? Maybe its better to be over ranked than under ranked. As a Buffs fan I think Sagarin probably has it right and the Buffs are probably around the 43rd best team in the country. However, we'll take all the recruiting gets we can from the AP top-15 poll ranking. I think its tragically unfair that Green Bay has built a program scratching on the door of the top-10 and are being ignored for the AP top-25 poll. There are only 16 schools managing a Sagarin rating of 90 or better, and Green Bay is one of them, the Buffs are only at 82.35 after the MVSU game.
The Buffs will adjust in recent weeks. Why? Keep reading.
Sagarin uses another metric whose algorithm weights the middle teams in the conference more heavily. Ranked By Central Mean, the Pac-12 is the #1 conference in NCAAW:
1.) Pac-12 86.15
2.) Big-12 85.62
3.) SEC 83.58
4.) Atlantic Coast 83.55
5.) Big-10 80.39
6.) Big East 75.38
7.) American Athletic 73.56
8.) West Coast 69.62
9.) Mid-American 69.32
10.) Colonial 68.62
11.) Mountain West 68.19
12.) Summit League 67.86
13.) Atlantic-10 67.69
14.) Ivy League 67.44
15.) Conference USA 66.96
16.) Big West 64.96
17.) Big Sky 64.51
18.) Missouri Valley 63.35
19.) Horizon 61.85
20.) Southern 61.28
21.) Metro Atlantic 60.94
22.) Patriot League 60.72
23.) America East 60.63
24.) WAC 60.53
25.) Sun Belt 60.32
26.) Ohio Valley 58.30
27.) Atlantic Sun 56.68
28.) Big South 55.10
29.) Southland 54.42
30.) Northeast 52.35
31.) Mid-Eastern 51.39
32.) Southwestern 47.87
Yikes! So yes the Pac-12 is a scary place and by any of three metrics weighting the middle teams in the conference, or just taking the pure arithmetic mean or simple average (which allows teams like UCONN to distort how competitive their conference looks), or just looking at the Win50% metric the Pac-12 is the #1 conference in women's NCAAW this season no matter how you look at it.
Sagarin NCAAW rankings:
8.) Washington (ranked #9th nationally in AP poll) - 97.07
10.) UCLA (#10th AP) - 93.33
13.) Stanford (#14th AP) - 91.13
22.) Oregon State (#25th AP) - 88.43
24.) Arizona State (#21st AP) - 88.07
27.) Oregon - 86.82
31.) California - 85.53
34.) Utah - 84.69
43.) Colorado (#15th AP) - 82.35
44.) Southern Cal - 81.79
47.) Washington State - 81.39
111.) Arizona - 71.95
Remember, the Buffs would need a current NCAAW Sagarin rating of 86.16 just to win half of these games on a neutral court. The Pac-12 begin the highest ranked conference in NCAAW right now. However, the games aren't played on a neutral court and the Buffs right now have only earned an 82.35 rating.
So back to that Buffs schedule, what do the Sagarin ratings say will happen? With the Pac-12 schedule pending this is how the Sagarin ratings (as-of Dec 21st) predict the Buffs finishing out (remember home team gets 3.04 bonus):
Wyoming (win)
So the Week 8 AP-poll shouldn't change too much. Probably won't see any real movement in the AP poll or the Sagarin ratings from playing the Cowgirls, ranked by Sagarin at #122 with a rating of 71.39. That compares almost exactly with Northern Colo. at #123 and 70.87, and we saw how the Buffs handled the Bears.
@USC (loss)
@#10 UCLA (loss)
The Week 9 AP top-25 poll should bring the Buffs crashing back to reality. There is a real possibility the team will finish the Southern CA road trip 11-2, but no longer in the AP top-25.
Arizona (win)
#21 Arizona State (loss)
The Week 10 AP top-25 poll probably won't be enough to help the Buffs get back into the top-25. The Buffs should be 12-3, but being 1-3 in conference will not look good.
Cal (win)
Stanford (loss)
The Northern CA teams coming to CO is where the Buffs really need to come together as a team. JR Payne has beaten Stanford before, and I'm hoping for that first CU win over Stanford this season and sweeping this weekend. As a fan I want both those games, but Sagarin objectively has both games out of reach even with the home bonus. However, that's as-of today, after the Wyoming game I expect the Buffs should adjust from the downward trend of the MVSU game, and the home bonus should just allow the Buffs to upset Cal. Frankly, by the time these games roll around the Buffs might even be ranked higher than Cal in Sagarin ranking. The week 11 AP top-25 poll will probably still leave the Buffs unranked and probably no longer receiving votes if they lose both of these games. But beating Cal and upsetting Stanford and he Buffs are a story again. Realistically, the Buffs are probably 13-4, and only 2-4 in conference and still unranked.
@Oregon (loss)
@#25 Oregon State (loss)
The Week 12 poll will be a tough time for the Buffs team. Even with the emotional high of beating Cal and possibly even Stanford at home, losing to both Oregon and Oregon State on the NW Pacific road trip will test the leadership of this young program. JR Payne will show her mettle and keep them focused on on the path, but the Buffs are 13-6, and 2-6 in conference, unranked and no longer receiving many votes.
Utah (win)
@Utah (loss)
I think the Buffs will have a higher Sagarin rating than Utah by Week 13, and have a change to win both of these games. However, as-of today Utah is ahead of the Buffs by over 2.0 points of rating. The Buffs need to the 3.04 home bonus just to get one win on paper here. Buffs are 14-7, and 3-7 in conference, unranked and not receiving any votes.
Washington State (win)
#9 Washington (loss)
Week 13 will be tough. The Buffs could upset top ranked Washington, the fan inside of me says. This team is ready to spread its wings and see how good they can play when the best team in the conference comes to town. Kelsey Plum is special, and the all-time Pac-12 scorer for a reason. However, she is just one player and the Buffs guards are very deep. Realistically the Buffs probably only pick up one win here, but I do think they can upset Washington. Week 14 poll Buffs are 15-8, 4-8 in conference, and whether they upset Washington determines whether they jump back into the top-25 or not.
@#14 Stanford (loss)
@Cal (loss)
The Dreaded Northern CA road trip. Giving Stanford and Cal the 3.04 home bonus puts both of these games realistically out of reach. However, the fan in me says that JR Payne just has VanDerveer's number. Hopefully, one has to hope! On paper as-of right now these are both losses. That's how much the MVSU mess matters, it really hammered the Buffs rating. Prior to the MVSU game the Buffs on paper get the win against Cal. By the time these games roll around things should have evened out, but as-of today the Week 15 poll has Buffs at 15-10, 4-10 in conference and at risk of not even getting a WNIT invite.
#25 Oregon State (loss)
Oregon (loss)
Two great teams that have just been killing it in recruiting in recent years come to Boulder. The Buffs have a great Sophomore class by recent standards. However, the Buffs find out what recruiting a roster of 5 star players looks like in the CEC. Buffs fans get a preview of what JR Payne will be putting together for the Buffs program in the Beavers and the Ducks. Depending on where the Buffs Sagarin rating is at the time of the game the Buffs might be able to upset Oregon with the 3.04 home bonus. Based on where the Buffs are right now after the MVSU debacle, these are both losses on paper. That should probably change, but right now it is what it is. Week 16 poll has the Buffs irrelevant in the national conversation, 15-12, and 4-12 in conference, and a WNIT bid is completely out of reach.
@#9 Washington (loss)
@WashingtonSt. (loss)
This Apple State road trip is going to haunt the Buffs season. As-of today, both of these are losses on paper. Washington State uses the Sagarin home bonus to upset Colorado, and the Buffs learn a tough lesson about how not to prepare for the brutal Pac-12 season with one of the worst non-conference strength of schedules in NCAAW. The Week 17 polls aren't impressed with the Buffs finishing 15-14, and 4-14 in conference. The early season top-15 ranking feels like fools gold. Optimism is high though, as JR Payne has experienced the tough Pac-12 schedule and the Buffs are only getting better with a new standard in recruiting. The Buffs are tough team, and fought hard in a lot of games, but just were not a talented roster, at least in the Pac-12. The Buffs need to make noise in the Pac-12 tournament to get to the post-season. Which is still very possible with a young scrappy team. JR Payne will have seen most teams twice by then, and she's a great coach.
Well UCLA fell from 9th to 10th (lost to #6 South Carolina 66-57)
Washington rose from 11th to 9th
Miami rose from 13th to 11th
West Virginia moved from 14th to 13th
Stanford fell from 10th to 14th (lost to unranked Lady Vols 59-51)
Colorado stands pat at 15th
Duke moves up to 17th from 18th
UK moves up to 18th from 19th (plays Washington State on Dec. 21)
Arizona State moves up to 21st-tie from 23rd (Quality win over mid-major power Middle Tennessee State)
South Florida moves to 21st-tie from 22nd
Virginia Tech moves to 23rd from 24th
Kansas State joins the AP top-25 at 24th
Oregon State joins the AP top-25 at 25th
DePaul drops off the AP top-25 poll after losing to #2 Notre Dame two weeks ago and Temple last week
Oregon drops off the AP top-25 poll after losing to Ole Miss 83-67
On the bubble but receiving votes (#25 Oregon State has 69 votes):
DePaul 63
California 34
Florida 28
Northwestern 24
Oregon 18
Oklahoma State 16
USC 12
Texas A&M 6
UNLV 6
Tennessee 4
Auburn 3
Vanderbilt 3
Ole Miss 2
Gonzaga 2
Green Bay 1
Several thoughts:
Normallly the AP poll punishes playing top ranked teams but 12th ranked Ohio State didn't drop after playing #1` UCONN, and losing 82-63. Why does UCLA fall for playing #6 and losing but #12 doesn't fall for losing to #1? Who knows!
Green Bay Phoenix. Where to start? They played the, then, #1 team in the country, Notre Dame, and barely lost 71-67 but are only receiving a single vote in the AP top-25? Green Bay beat Drake and Marquette, and Green Bay lost by a single point to Big-10 Wisconsin. Green Bay absolutely destroyed the Summit league mid-major power South Dakota State Jackrabbits 67-43. The SDSU Jackrabbits are probably a good placeholder for the CU Buffs right now. Per Sagarin's NCAAW ratings the Buffs are 43rd at 82.35 and the Jackrabbits are 49th at 81.30, the teams are very close. Playing at home Sagarin predicts the Jackrabbits would upset the Buffs by about two points. So how can the CU Buffs be ranked 15th overall in the nation but a Horizon league mid-major power like Green Bay can't get but a single vote? Sagarin's ratings have Green Bay as the 14th best team in the country right after Stanford and ahead of West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio State. Green Bay is actually ranked as a better team per the Sagarin ratings over EVERY team in the Pac-12 except Washington, UCLA and Stanford. If playing at home the Phoenix would be favored over all but Washington by the Sagarin ratings.
So what is the point? Maybe its better to be over ranked than under ranked. As a Buffs fan I think Sagarin probably has it right and the Buffs are probably around the 43rd best team in the country. However, we'll take all the recruiting gets we can from the AP top-15 poll ranking. I think its tragically unfair that Green Bay has built a program scratching on the door of the top-10 and are being ignored for the AP top-25 poll. There are only 16 schools managing a Sagarin rating of 90 or better, and Green Bay is one of them, the Buffs are only at 82.35 after the MVSU game.
The Buffs will adjust in recent weeks. Why? Keep reading.
Sagarin uses another metric whose algorithm weights the middle teams in the conference more heavily. Ranked By Central Mean, the Pac-12 is the #1 conference in NCAAW:
1.) Pac-12 86.15
2.) Big-12 85.62
3.) SEC 83.58
4.) Atlantic Coast 83.55
5.) Big-10 80.39
6.) Big East 75.38
7.) American Athletic 73.56
8.) West Coast 69.62
9.) Mid-American 69.32
10.) Colonial 68.62
11.) Mountain West 68.19
12.) Summit League 67.86
13.) Atlantic-10 67.69
14.) Ivy League 67.44
15.) Conference USA 66.96
16.) Big West 64.96
17.) Big Sky 64.51
18.) Missouri Valley 63.35
19.) Horizon 61.85
20.) Southern 61.28
21.) Metro Atlantic 60.94
22.) Patriot League 60.72
23.) America East 60.63
24.) WAC 60.53
25.) Sun Belt 60.32
26.) Ohio Valley 58.30
27.) Atlantic Sun 56.68
28.) Big South 55.10
29.) Southland 54.42
30.) Northeast 52.35
31.) Mid-Eastern 51.39
32.) Southwestern 47.87
Yikes! So yes the Pac-12 is a scary place and by any of three metrics weighting the middle teams in the conference, or just taking the pure arithmetic mean or simple average (which allows teams like UCONN to distort how competitive their conference looks), or just looking at the Win50% metric the Pac-12 is the #1 conference in women's NCAAW this season no matter how you look at it.
Sagarin NCAAW rankings:
8.) Washington (ranked #9th nationally in AP poll) - 97.07
10.) UCLA (#10th AP) - 93.33
13.) Stanford (#14th AP) - 91.13
22.) Oregon State (#25th AP) - 88.43
24.) Arizona State (#21st AP) - 88.07
27.) Oregon - 86.82
31.) California - 85.53
34.) Utah - 84.69
43.) Colorado (#15th AP) - 82.35
44.) Southern Cal - 81.79
47.) Washington State - 81.39
111.) Arizona - 71.95
Remember, the Buffs would need a current NCAAW Sagarin rating of 86.16 just to win half of these games on a neutral court. The Pac-12 begin the highest ranked conference in NCAAW right now. However, the games aren't played on a neutral court and the Buffs right now have only earned an 82.35 rating.
So back to that Buffs schedule, what do the Sagarin ratings say will happen? With the Pac-12 schedule pending this is how the Sagarin ratings (as-of Dec 21st) predict the Buffs finishing out (remember home team gets 3.04 bonus):
Wyoming (win)
So the Week 8 AP-poll shouldn't change too much. Probably won't see any real movement in the AP poll or the Sagarin ratings from playing the Cowgirls, ranked by Sagarin at #122 with a rating of 71.39. That compares almost exactly with Northern Colo. at #123 and 70.87, and we saw how the Buffs handled the Bears.
@USC (loss)
@#10 UCLA (loss)
The Week 9 AP top-25 poll should bring the Buffs crashing back to reality. There is a real possibility the team will finish the Southern CA road trip 11-2, but no longer in the AP top-25.
Arizona (win)
#21 Arizona State (loss)
The Week 10 AP top-25 poll probably won't be enough to help the Buffs get back into the top-25. The Buffs should be 12-3, but being 1-3 in conference will not look good.
Cal (win)
Stanford (loss)
The Northern CA teams coming to CO is where the Buffs really need to come together as a team. JR Payne has beaten Stanford before, and I'm hoping for that first CU win over Stanford this season and sweeping this weekend. As a fan I want both those games, but Sagarin objectively has both games out of reach even with the home bonus. However, that's as-of today, after the Wyoming game I expect the Buffs should adjust from the downward trend of the MVSU game, and the home bonus should just allow the Buffs to upset Cal. Frankly, by the time these games roll around the Buffs might even be ranked higher than Cal in Sagarin ranking. The week 11 AP top-25 poll will probably still leave the Buffs unranked and probably no longer receiving votes if they lose both of these games. But beating Cal and upsetting Stanford and he Buffs are a story again. Realistically, the Buffs are probably 13-4, and only 2-4 in conference and still unranked.
@Oregon (loss)
@#25 Oregon State (loss)
The Week 12 poll will be a tough time for the Buffs team. Even with the emotional high of beating Cal and possibly even Stanford at home, losing to both Oregon and Oregon State on the NW Pacific road trip will test the leadership of this young program. JR Payne will show her mettle and keep them focused on on the path, but the Buffs are 13-6, and 2-6 in conference, unranked and no longer receiving many votes.
Utah (win)
@Utah (loss)
I think the Buffs will have a higher Sagarin rating than Utah by Week 13, and have a change to win both of these games. However, as-of today Utah is ahead of the Buffs by over 2.0 points of rating. The Buffs need to the 3.04 home bonus just to get one win on paper here. Buffs are 14-7, and 3-7 in conference, unranked and not receiving any votes.
Washington State (win)
#9 Washington (loss)
Week 13 will be tough. The Buffs could upset top ranked Washington, the fan inside of me says. This team is ready to spread its wings and see how good they can play when the best team in the conference comes to town. Kelsey Plum is special, and the all-time Pac-12 scorer for a reason. However, she is just one player and the Buffs guards are very deep. Realistically the Buffs probably only pick up one win here, but I do think they can upset Washington. Week 14 poll Buffs are 15-8, 4-8 in conference, and whether they upset Washington determines whether they jump back into the top-25 or not.
@#14 Stanford (loss)
@Cal (loss)
The Dreaded Northern CA road trip. Giving Stanford and Cal the 3.04 home bonus puts both of these games realistically out of reach. However, the fan in me says that JR Payne just has VanDerveer's number. Hopefully, one has to hope! On paper as-of right now these are both losses. That's how much the MVSU mess matters, it really hammered the Buffs rating. Prior to the MVSU game the Buffs on paper get the win against Cal. By the time these games roll around things should have evened out, but as-of today the Week 15 poll has Buffs at 15-10, 4-10 in conference and at risk of not even getting a WNIT invite.
#25 Oregon State (loss)
Oregon (loss)
Two great teams that have just been killing it in recruiting in recent years come to Boulder. The Buffs have a great Sophomore class by recent standards. However, the Buffs find out what recruiting a roster of 5 star players looks like in the CEC. Buffs fans get a preview of what JR Payne will be putting together for the Buffs program in the Beavers and the Ducks. Depending on where the Buffs Sagarin rating is at the time of the game the Buffs might be able to upset Oregon with the 3.04 home bonus. Based on where the Buffs are right now after the MVSU debacle, these are both losses on paper. That should probably change, but right now it is what it is. Week 16 poll has the Buffs irrelevant in the national conversation, 15-12, and 4-12 in conference, and a WNIT bid is completely out of reach.
@#9 Washington (loss)
@WashingtonSt. (loss)
This Apple State road trip is going to haunt the Buffs season. As-of today, both of these are losses on paper. Washington State uses the Sagarin home bonus to upset Colorado, and the Buffs learn a tough lesson about how not to prepare for the brutal Pac-12 season with one of the worst non-conference strength of schedules in NCAAW. The Week 17 polls aren't impressed with the Buffs finishing 15-14, and 4-14 in conference. The early season top-15 ranking feels like fools gold. Optimism is high though, as JR Payne has experienced the tough Pac-12 schedule and the Buffs are only getting better with a new standard in recruiting. The Buffs are tough team, and fought hard in a lot of games, but just were not a talented roster, at least in the Pac-12. The Buffs need to make noise in the Pac-12 tournament to get to the post-season. Which is still very possible with a young scrappy team. JR Payne will have seen most teams twice by then, and she's a great coach.
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So if we had a time machine and the MVSU game never happened, how would things be different?
8.) Washington (ranked #9th nationally in AP poll) - 97.07
10.) UCLA (#10th AP) - 93.33
13.) Stanford (#14th AP) - 91.13
22.) Oregon State (#25th AP) - 88.43
24.) Arizona State (#21st AP) - 88.07
27.) Oregon - 86.82
31.) California - 85.53
34.) Utah - 84.69
44.) Southern Cal - 81.79
47.) Washington State - 81.39
111.) Arizona - 71.95
Instead of the Buffs being:
43.) Colorado (#15th AP) - 82.35
they were:
37.) Colorado (#15th AP) - 84.08
So let's go through the schedule again, carving out the MVSU debacle (home team gets 3.04 bonus):
Wyoming (win)
@USC (squeaker USC 84.79 w/home bonus to CU 84.08)
@#10 UCLA (loss)
Arizona (win)
#21 Arizona State (competitive game 88.07 to CU 87.12 w/home bonus)
Cal (win)
Stanford (loss)
@Oregon (loss)
@#25 Oregon State (loss)
Utah (win)
@Utah (loss)
Washington State (win)
#9 Washington (loss)
@#14 Stanford (loss)
@Cal (loss)
#25 Oregon State (competitive game Oregon 88.43 vs CU 87.12 w/home bonus)
Oregon (win)
@#9 Washington (loss)
@WashingtonSt. (squeaker Wash St 84.43 w/home bonus vs CU 84.08)
The time machine gives the Buffs six wins, and five conference wins plus two squeaker games and two other games that the Buffs should be competitive in. That's a far cry from 15-14 and 4-14 in conference. Things could be 16-13 and 5-13 in conference at the worst, but the potential exists for the Buffs to actually be 20-9, and 9-9 in conference.
So the question has been asked just where are these Buffs at, in terms of projecting the Pac-12 schedule. Prior to the MVSU game JR Payne was flying high, and the Buffs were ready to shatter their best season of Pac-12 conference play with a chance to potentially add 50% to the Buffs all-time single season conference wins total as a best case scenario, and worst case scenario finish right around the 6-12 record that has been the high bar previously. I think the Buffs can actually win 10-11 games in the Pac-12 this season. However, I also think the Buffs could lose 12-14 games just as easily. As they say, that's why we play the games.
Can't wait to find out.
8.) Washington (ranked #9th nationally in AP poll) - 97.07
10.) UCLA (#10th AP) - 93.33
13.) Stanford (#14th AP) - 91.13
22.) Oregon State (#25th AP) - 88.43
24.) Arizona State (#21st AP) - 88.07
27.) Oregon - 86.82
31.) California - 85.53
34.) Utah - 84.69
44.) Southern Cal - 81.79
47.) Washington State - 81.39
111.) Arizona - 71.95
Instead of the Buffs being:
43.) Colorado (#15th AP) - 82.35
they were:
37.) Colorado (#15th AP) - 84.08
So let's go through the schedule again, carving out the MVSU debacle (home team gets 3.04 bonus):
Wyoming (win)
@USC (squeaker USC 84.79 w/home bonus to CU 84.08)
@#10 UCLA (loss)
Arizona (win)
#21 Arizona State (competitive game 88.07 to CU 87.12 w/home bonus)
Cal (win)
Stanford (loss)
@Oregon (loss)
@#25 Oregon State (loss)
Utah (win)
@Utah (loss)
Washington State (win)
#9 Washington (loss)
@#14 Stanford (loss)
@Cal (loss)
#25 Oregon State (competitive game Oregon 88.43 vs CU 87.12 w/home bonus)
Oregon (win)
@#9 Washington (loss)
@WashingtonSt. (squeaker Wash St 84.43 w/home bonus vs CU 84.08)
The time machine gives the Buffs six wins, and five conference wins plus two squeaker games and two other games that the Buffs should be competitive in. That's a far cry from 15-14 and 4-14 in conference. Things could be 16-13 and 5-13 in conference at the worst, but the potential exists for the Buffs to actually be 20-9, and 9-9 in conference.
So the question has been asked just where are these Buffs at, in terms of projecting the Pac-12 schedule. Prior to the MVSU game JR Payne was flying high, and the Buffs were ready to shatter their best season of Pac-12 conference play with a chance to potentially add 50% to the Buffs all-time single season conference wins total as a best case scenario, and worst case scenario finish right around the 6-12 record that has been the high bar previously. I think the Buffs can actually win 10-11 games in the Pac-12 this season. However, I also think the Buffs could lose 12-14 games just as easily. As they say, that's why we play the games.
Can't wait to find out.