Leonard is exceptional but she is being double teamed all over the floor and is taking a beating every time she attacks the basket. We'll need others to step up and take some of the load. Long way to go; veterans need to step up and freshman will have to grow up fast. 15 wins this season would be huge.
I think some of the Buffs players on this roster are very exciting to watch. Correal has been playing at a double-double pace in almost ever game she's played in this season. Quinessa Caylao-Do looks very athletic, skilled and talented. Eleanor Jones looks like she has some of best short and mid-range shooting touch of any recent Buff post player in memory. Arianna Freeman is fearless and finishes near the rim like she's 4-6" taller. Kennedy Leonard is aggressive and exciting to watch. With all the players on this Buffs roster we take the good with the bad.
I just think its important to recognize that CU is a largely non-competitive Pac-12 program, and has been since entering the Pac-12, where their record is only 33-58 since joining the conference (through the USC game). The Buffs aren't even winning half their games, rather closer to winning just a little better than one third of their games. While we've seen many exciting things from players on this roster, this just isn't a competitive roster for Pac-12 conference play.
The Buffs played USC on Friday night. The Buffs were an AP-25 ranked team, and it shouldn't be lost on anyone that USC was unranked. Of the seven ranked teams in the Pac-12, USC was not one of them. I don't think anyone who follows the Buffs was confident going into this game. At this point it was clear the Buffs had regressed a bit, gone back into some bad habits learned last year. The Buffs just took two significant steps back in the MVSU and the Wyoming game. This Buffs team was good enough to blow both of those teams out, but could have easily lost both games. As it was CU was lucky to split the two contests as poorly as they've played. Against MVSU the sheer difference in talent and athleticism that the CU Buffs had was probably the difference in the game, as poorly as they played. However, MVSU may have lost that game, but MVSU realistically outplayed CU. Wyoming looked to me like the better team, and I didn't realize this Buffs team could play that poorly this season. We take the good with the bad. The UK win was unexpected but so much fun to watch, and the Wyoming loss was just as unexpected, and it was tough to watch the team and Leonard struggle so badly for the first three quarters. However, that fourth quarter was just something to witness. It wasn't necessarily good basketball, and it ultimately didn't really help the team, but watching young Leonard take over and prove she was unstoppable versus that level of competition was worth the agony of the first three quarters, if we still had to lose.
My point is that the Buffs do have some exceptional players. Correal managed 11 rebounds against USC in just about 16 minutes. If Correal had instead gone on to play for a mid-major power somewhere she'd probably average 20 points and 10 rebounds every night against lesser competition. She's a great basketball player, but as a Pac-12 player she's marginal as a scorer, has trouble defending without fouling, and is a plus rebounder. She is a great basketball player, just not a great Pac-12 player (at least not right now). She has so much upside that Linda wasn't able to develop, and already we're seeing in the short time that JR Payne has been working with Correal that she's been transformed into a player that was flirting with a double-double in almost every non-conference game. So while Correal is an exceptional basketball player in her own right, the context is now Pac-12 play. For the Pac-12 this is not a competitive roster. Correal is not an exceptional basketball player, in our competitive context. We'll root for her, and cheer on our Buffs, and continue to celebrate her development and growth (only still a Junior) but let's be realistic about the fact that we don't have depth next to her amongst the bigs. BuffBaller I think you have a special affinity for Kennedy Leonard, and I too think she is a talented and exceptional basketball player. Young Kennedy could have gone almost anywhere to play college basketball, and with her sheer aggressiveness gone on to be a veritable star. She is just so fearless and aggressive that it almost makes up for the deficiencies in her game defensively or in running the point. However, in choosing to come to Colorado and attempt to compete in the Pac-12 it changed the perspective. That's before even considering that
this season the Pac-12 is a whole completely different level of competitive. An NCAAW player can be exceptional in her own right and a great basketball player, but against
this level of competition she can look like at times she's not even good. That's how good the Pac-12 is right now. That's why a ranked CU Buffs team didn't go into unranked USC with confidence and why many fans weren't predicting the Buffs would run the floor with the Trojans, let alone win. On paper this game always felt like a loss and many of us were suspecting the Buffs were significantly overrated.
Our non-conference schedule was almost entirely non-competitive, and that's not how a team prepares to play in the most competitive conference in the land. We've seen the team revert to the bad form of last season. I think the Buffs could have won the USC game had we seen the Kennedy Leonard that we saw in the UK game. I still say I saw Leonard play a perfect game that night versus Kentucky. However, Kentucky is not a Pac-12 team, ranked as they were and have been, or not. An unranked USC is just so significantly more athletic, talented, and ultimately bigger, faster, stronger and more skilled than this CU roster that I don't think the outcome was in doubt in anyone's minds.
The Buffs have some very good guards. Kennedy Leonard had one assist on the night and four turnovers versus USC. That's not the line you want from your dominant ball handler and the point guard that gets the team into good scoring looks. Alexis Robinson had one assist on five turnovers. Quinessa Caylao-Do had one assist on four turnovers. The strength of this Buffs team is that backcourt right there, and quite frankly in this game they weren't good enough or even marginally competitive. Leonard took sixteen shots, and seemed to be playing like she did against Wyoming, that is trying to draw the foul rather than scoring. Leonard got to the line for ten free throws. Take away those points after the whistle and that's just ten points on sixteen shots, with one assist and four turnovers. What I'd like to see again is the Kennedy Leonard that is looking to penetrate to create opportunities for her teammates. She was spectacular in the UK game, running the pick and roll with Correal and giving that good defense just fits.
A JR Payne team is a team that is predicated on tough and smart basketball. Tough and smart basketball is not a team turning the ball over 24 times, or driving and penetrating while looking for one's own shot and not looking to dish to a slashing teammate. Mark my words, there is no player on this CU roster that is talented enough to play Pac-12 competition on her own. This Buffs team will find success or frustration to the degree they learn to play together as a team and for one another. Kennedy Leonard, Alexis Robinson and Quinessa Caylao-Do may be three of the most talented players on this roster but this team can never have success if they are trying to play 1v5 on offense. A player can be exceptional in her own right, and marginal in performance when she tries that. It has to change or the results won't.
However, this is the first Pac-12 game that JR Payne has coached, and this team is too talented to abide by a result like last nights! Two JR Payne quotes from the game:
JR Payne said:
"We hadn't seen that physicality and athleticism all season. And overall, they were just more ready. They looked like an experienced Pac-12 team that was ready to be physical, ready to play fast."
I think JR Payne learned her lesson regarding how not to schedule for non-conference going forward. I'm not sure how far out team's schedule games, but we can probably rest assured that JR Payne will take a completely different approach to non-conference scheduling than Linda did. You don't prepare to play the best athletes in the country by playing some of the worst.
JR Payne said:
"I felt like we came out intimidated or shell-shocked. We've had a lot of success and we have good players on our team and we should have been more confident in ourselves than that. I thought we come out kind of skittish. We just weren't really ready to go against a great, athletic, fast-paced team. So that's disappointing. The assists to turnovers tonight, we typically turn people over, but we don't typically turn the ball over like that. Six assists and 24 turnovers will never really be successful. It doesn't matter who you play. I was proud of our effort on the glass. We outrebounded them by six, so that's a good thing to win the glass. But turning the ball over led to points for them and that doesn't work [in this league]."
Realistically, USC isn't even one of the good Pac-12 teams. Sagarin had them ranked 9th in the Pac-12, and Colorado was ranked 11th before this game. I think we've seen a significant turnaround this season in getting these Buffs playing competitively in the non-conference portion of the schedule, but let's be honest. These are mostly the same players that struggled so much last season, and significant talent is missing in Swan and Huggins. Arguably this roster is worse than last season's, though I think they are much much better coached this season. We always knew coming in this season that the Pac-12 portion of this year's schedule was going to be brutal.
We'll cheer on the Buffs, support the team, and hope for the best. Maybe we find five conference wins to get to the WNIT. However, a huge part of this team developing into being the team JR Payne's teams are known for is learning to play team basketball, smart and tough basketball. Right now the Buffs are playing selfish basketball, and it isn't smart, it isn't tough, and we've seen for the past 1 1/2 seasons that it isn't a winning formula. If the Buffs can't play with the 9th best team in the Pac-12 it could be a long conference portion to finishing out this season.
I think anyone being objective about how these Buffs are playing would recognize that right now the Buffs have some very good basketball players that just can't compete when playing in a great basketball competitive context. That's what can be humbling about sports, no matter how good you are, your opponents can be better, and much better at that. That right there might be the story of the Pac-12 portion of this season's schedule.
I'll lead the cheers of GO BUFFS! and we can all root for these players that wear the Buffs colors, but we can't just root for players the way their parents would. There are exceptional players in the Pac-12, and quite honestly there aren't any players on the CU roster that have been worthy of being a Pac-12 Player of the Week for the past two seasons, and for good reason. This is the Conference of Champions, and this conference is as good as it gets. The Buffs aren't there yet, but I believe with JR Payne they will get there. I think its a disservice to the Pac-12 opponents to talk up our own players when they continue to the struggle and our team is largely noncompetitive for going on a season and a half. As for the Buffs, we have some players that are good basketball players in their own right, but not so much (yet) in the Pac-12 competitive conference context. At the end of the day, if you can't win games, are you really any good let alone exceptional?
Almost on every given night the remainder of the season, the Buffs will see some exceptional players, even for the Pac-12 context, the problem is they won't be wearing a CU uniform. As talented as some of these CU players are they are just 2-17 in Pac-12 games the past two seasons for a reason.
That reason is not that CU has any players that are just so exceptional that they are just that much better than their opponents.
Right now, let's limit the use of the term
exceptional to the likes of Kelsey Plum et. al. Plum took Washington to the Final Four last season, and this season is #1 in the conference in Scoring AND in Assist/TO ratio. That's pretty darn exceptional.
Now I've seen players for CU play at that level, Kennedy Leonard did it in the UK game for sure, but there is a difference between having one great game and being a truly great player. In all fairness to our Buffs there is not a harder conference to be a good player in all of NCAAW than the Pac-12. This is a good Buffs team, probably good for between the 55th-75th best team in the country. It just so happens that this makes them a pretty lousy Pac-12 team.
Still we have 10 wins, and counting. Pac-12 wins are like gold. Valuable, scarce, and fierce effort and competition to find. This Buffs team would be competitive in just about any other conference in the country, just not in the Pac-12. That's not so bad. Things are trending in the right direction, with the right coach, and we'll be getting the right players in recruiting soon and the Buffs will be a Pac-12 force to be reckoned with. Just not last Friday and probably not this season.
Stay tuned. Right now JR Payne is trying to figure out how to play Pac-12 Basketball with a WCC Gonzaga like roster. She'll figure it out. However, as fans we have to move past the sour grapes stage of fandom. As the losses for CU pile up in Pac-12 competition the reason the Buffs lose is not because of how singularly great any particular player is, and quite frankly, there aren't really any great players on this Buffs roster in a Pac-12 context. Great players make their teammates better and are transformative in terms of wins. There is not a single player on this CU roster that is great in that sense, in a Pac-12 context, and that's okay.
Hats off to USC.
Go Buffs!