The main difference I see with Iowa St. v. CU is that ISU has broke the glass ceiling; and CU has not. CU is an occasional bubble team.
Since 2015, ISU won the B-12 conference tournament 5 times. Since 2000, they have won 15 games in the NCAA tourney, and they beat some big name teams--North Carolina, UCLA, UCONN, LSU, ND, Wisco... They were 1 and done 4 times. When ISU's goes to the NCAA tourney this century, they have been a 2-3 seed 5 times, and better than a 6 seed, 9 times. Although they have not won the NCAA or made a final 4, I feel ISU is an estabished hoops power--4 sweet 16s and one elite 8. There sustained success teamwise is why their fanbase is so active. ISU fans always feel that they have a great shot to win in any given game. When they have a good season, it is a great team.
Since, I graduated in 93', CU won 1 conference tourney once in our 1st year in the PAC. CU is 4-7 in the NCAAs since 2000 (one win was the play-in game last year). 1 and done 4 times in 7 appearances. We have not made the Sweet 16 since 1969. CU's best modern NCAA seed was a 5 in 2021, with the six other teams seeded 8-11 seeds--clearly bubble teams. Also, when we lose at the NCAA tourney, we are generally taken to the woodshed, Marquette was a pleasent exception last year. IMO, CU got it's best NCAA win in the modern era over #8 Indiana with Chauncey, however, that was the 1st time CU got back to the NCAA tourney in 28 years. Last year we did beat a 7 seeded Florida to make the Sweet 16. Compared to ISU, when CU has a great season, they are a bubble team.
In terms of successful CU seasons, CU's success is generally driven on 1-2 star players going off and really carrying them. Last year was great for CU with 3 guys going in the draft, but that team was really only 6 guys deep for the 2nd half of the season. I thought it was one of Tad's best coaching seasons. Contrast that with ISU's success, they have a star player or two, however always a much better supporting cast and they just play better
team basketball. Hence, the higher seeded teams.
@Da Lama summed up my expectations for this year. A grim rebuild and then departures, so probably another rebuild.
My expectations going forward is trying to be in the Top 2/3 of the Big 12, with occassional NCAA bubble bids in sporadic special seasons. For the near term, I think that CU will have a rough adjustment in the B12. Much of the future depends on what Tad does. Tad is a known quantity and has had the best success for CU since the 1960s. I can CU see maybe being competitive in the B12 with Tad, however not breaking the glass ceiling--i.e--winning the B12 regular season, winning the conference tounrney, or being a Top-15 team during a given season. I do not see a sustained run of great seasons under Tad. If Chauncey is interested, CU may consider that.