Part 1 - Offense
Once the 2022 season quickly went off the rails, the question really became whether Karl Dorrell had left the cupboard bare for the next guy or if there was enough talent on the roster heading into 2023 to form the basis of a rebuild.
We're learning a bit more about the younger players every week. This post might be a bit premature, but the HC search is happening now. So I figured it would make sense to look at the roster, not pay any attention to current commits since that's completely in flux, and take a look at what we'll have and where we need the most immediate help.
Offensive Line
For the first time in a long time, we'll have everyone expected to return and actual class balance within this group.
The regular starters have become fairly entrenched and have drastically improved from where this OL was 12 months ago. That still makes it no better than a competent OL, but that's a foundation to get some things done on offense. Below is what's returning (class in parentheses is what the player will be in 2023).
LT - Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan (Junior)
LG - Casey Roddick (Senior)
C - Van Wells (Sophomore)
RG - Tommy Brown (Senior)
RT - Jake Wiley (Junior)
Key Reserves: Frank Fillip (Senior, starting experience at OT), Austin Johnson (Junior, starting experience at C/OG), Noah Fenske (Junior, starting experience at C/OG), Alex Harvey (Junior, playing experience at OT/OG)
Other reserves have not played much, if at all, so all that can be said is that there are another 5 true and redshirt freshman expected to return and develop in the position pipeline.
2023 Needs: If all 14 scholarship OLs return, this is probably a spot where we see 4 or 5 new players, with maybe all of them HS recruits. OL represents 22.7% of your starters (5/22), so the natural number is to have 19/85 scholarship players (83 non-specialist scholarships x 22.7% = 19).
OL Coach: Kyle DeVan was OL Coach at Arizona during Sumlin's last 2 years when OL was the strength of some bad teams. Last year he was the OL Analyst at Michigan, working under Sherrone Moore. Had a rep at UA of being a good recruiter. New HC should have complete authority on choices of assistants, but DeVan wouldn't be a bad "keep" to give the OL some much needed continuity after 3 different position coaches + 1 interim position coach over the past 4 years and significant improvement this year.
Quarterback
Sub-par QB play has been a major issue and no one on the roster has shown he can deliver plus performance from the position.
Key Returnees:
JT Shrout (Junior, part-time starter in 2022). Shrout bring some moxie and a cannon arm, but accuracy and decision-making questions. Probably better as a veteran who can come in for relief than he is someone to be relied upon as a starter.
Owen McCown (Sophomore if he plays any more snaps and doesn't redshirt, part-time starter in 2022). McCown sees the field well and processes information well, especially for a true freshman. Physically needs to develop. Seems to have the tools needed to make all the college throws and, while not a dual-threat, can make the occasional play with his legs. Potentially the QB of the future, but hasn't cemented that role.
Drew Carter (Junior or RS-Sophomore, depending on how much he plays; limited backup snaps in 2022 and 2021). Carter is a plus athlete who has also participated on the CU basketball team as a walk-on. Doesn't appear like he will ever be the starter, but is someone who has the potential to add a positive wrinkle to the offense by entering the game for some "Wildcat" style packages as has been seen in a very limited amount. Useful player to have in the QB room if he stays.
Maddox Kopp (Sophomore, backup). Transfer from Houston who seems to have the frame (6'5") for the position along with solid athleticism. Hasn't done enough to see the field in 2022 and may not factor in any time soon. Needs a lot of development.
2023 Needs: If CU can get a proven grad transfer (Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, etc. have made huge impacts at Pac-12 rivals in 2022), it would make a huge impact on the season prospects. Otherwise, it will likely be a season of developing McCown and hoping that he's ahead of schedule to be a winning P5 quarterback.
QB Coach: Mike Sanford. Also the OC before becoming the Interim HC. (Also Nate Dodson, a young coach whose role expanded after Sanford's mid-season elevation.) Sanford has not improved the offense much from a historically bad 2021, so there's not a lot of faith in him from the fan base as an OC/QB Coach. He has done a very admirable job as I-HC, but I think most CU fans would prefer to see him parlay that into getting a HC opportunity elsewhere than to seem him return on the 2023 staff. Sanford's become a guy to cheer for and fans have come to appreciate, but it's probably best to move on.
Running Back
It looks like a balanced group with complementary skill sets which can be productive. It also doesn't seem to have a guy who can be relied on as a horse to carry the run game every week or anyone who is a game breaker. The only loss from the 2022 backs is Alex Fontenot, who has been a steady, smart and tough RB when healthy, who was reliably productive.
Key Returnees:
Deion Smith (Senior, part-time starter). The most productive back in 2022, Smith is best in the open field when CU can get him in space through short passes or running to the edge.
Jayle Stacks (Junior, backup). Recruited as a fullback, Stacks has transitioned to "big back" and has shown a lot in recent weeks as a north-south runner who has improved his burst enough to not be limited to only running inside the tackles (though he's still a step slow on runs outside the tackles). Useful player who also give FB versatility in a jumbo set.
Anthony Hankerson (Sophomore, part-time starter). Maybe the biggest surprise in 2022, Hankerson went from greyshirt to joining the 2022 roster at the 11th hour. He was still expected to redshirt, but when he got his chance showed himself to be a tough runner and competitor with good balance and acceleration. Potential to be an every down back, but hasn't shown that he can be a game breaker.
Victor Venn (Freshman, battling injuries). Probably the guy who was expected to emerge this year, but he hasn't been able to get healthy and is now likely to redshirt. Breakaway speed, so on paper would be a solid 1-2 punch with Hankerson in the future. Needs a good offseason to put on some mass.
2023 Needs: This is likely a spot where recruiting a freshman or two is all that's needed, but like with any position a transfer should be entertained if a clear upgrade is available.
RB Coach: Darian Hagan. For years, he's gotten productivity from the position under different HCs, OCs and systems. Recruiting is limited and you'd like to see your RB Coach doing a lot more to bring in talent across the roster. Definition of a true Buff, and that's valuable to the team's coaching leadership. New HC will have to make a decision here and if Hagan's role will be as a position coach or something else in 2023.
Wide Receiver
Entering the 2022 season, the focus was on a group of seniors: starters Daniel Arias and RJ Sneed, with Maurice Bell and Jaylin Jackson providing depth. As the season has progressed, underclassmen have take over the top roles and other underclassmen have flashed.
Key Returnees:
Jordyn Tyson (Sophomore, part-time starter). Camp reports were that he has the potential to be special but has to physically develop. He's got a good frame and is young for his class, so this offseason could see a major jump in his physique. Has shown star potential and had big games, including the last one where he also showed his athleticism with a punt return touchdown. Definitely a plus player for the Buffs at WR.
Montana Lemonious-Craig (Junior, part-time starter). Flashed in 2021 and has built on it in 2022. Looks like he can be a very solid #2 WR who makes some tough catches in traffic and has a knack for getting open. Seems like he will be a productive player a team can win with as a starting WR who can play both slot and on the outside.
Chase Penry (Sophomore or Junior - depending on if he ends up playing enough to not redshirt, battling injuries). Flashed in 2021 as a reliable possession receiver who might be a guy who can work out of the slot as a guy who plays with toughness and finds holes in the defense. Sneaky athletic. Not going to be the star WR, but someone who can be a useful, productive piece to a winning offense if he can get healthy.
Ty Robinson (Sophomore, depth). Decent size and athleticism. Has flashed both in 2021 and 2022. Looks like a player who will be a productive piece in the WR rotation and is young enough to have upside.
Chase Sowell (Freshman, redshirting due to injury). Great frame for the position and a lot of upside. Started to flash before injury ended his 2022 season. Potential starter in the future, possibly on the outside with MLC moving to the slot or he should factor in as the primary backup. I'm very high on him.
Grant Page (Freshman, redshirting). Great frame and one of the top in-state recruits in 2022. Nothing much can be said here except that he looks the part and we'll have to see how he develops.
2023 Needs: Need to continue filling this pipeline with good HS recruiting. 6 returning scholarship WRs is not enough when 2-3 start and the position is heavily rotated. You want to have 9 or 10 scholarship WRs, so CU will need to bring in 3 or 4 guys. Potential for a grad transfer here, particularly if it was a jitterbug type who can make things happen in the open field out of the slot.
WR Coach: Phil McGeoghan is new in 2022 and also serves as the Assistant HC. Seems to be a charismatic, energetic coach. Respected career, much of which was in the NFL. Recruiting is a question mark since he doesn't have a track record. Looks like this is a good coach it wouldn't be objectionable if the new HC kept, but again that's totally the new HC's decision.
Tight End
The one player in the 2022 group who has been productive is Brady Russell, who is graduating. This position group will be young in 2023 and needs attention.
Key Returnees:
Caleb Fauria (Sophomore, depth). Good size and athleticism. 2022 has been a developmental year with him getting some playing time. There is probably some potential here, but he hasn't really flashed much so far. Has battled injuries, so may be on track to turn a corner in 2023 as a 4th year sophomore (Covid year is causing some weirdness on eligibility class).
Erik Olson (Sophomore, depth). Pretty much a repeat of the Fauria description. Either or both could be serviceable starters or even have upside beyond that, but we haven't really seen it yet.
Austin Smith (Sophomore, depth). Upside is extremely high. All the physical tools to be a difference maker, but is learning the TE position from the ground up after playing WR in a basic spread offense in HS. Has flashed, including a very athletic touchdown catch.
Zach Courtney & Louis Passarello (RS-Freshman, depth). Two guys who look the part on size & height. Nothing much to be said until we get to see them play and how they develop.
2023 Needs: With 5 scholarship TEs returning, the position group numbers are fine without adding anyone. Maybe a position which was over-recruited the past couple classes. It's a spot where a grad transfer & projected starter would be very helpful. We can get by without a HS signee, but taking 1 to keep the position pipeline clean (and maybe counting on some attrition) would be in order.
TE Coach: Clay Patterson. Came from Minnesota, where he did great work since 2018 with the TE group. Background is OK & TX, with some recruiting chops. Rep as a good teacher who players develop under, which this young group needs. Serving as OC after Sanford's elevation to I-HC. Another assistant coach I wouldn't mind keeping, but again would not force anyone on the new HC.
Specialist (Offense)
Since they score points, I'm putting the Place Kicker here and I'll put the Punter on Defense. We return our PK and are in very good shape.
Cole Becker (Junior, starter). Has done a very good job as our PK for 2 seasons. Has been accurate and can make kicks from distance. In 2022, has been excellent on kickoffs with making sure they are not returnable. Needs a bit of improvement with consistent ball striking on his field goals (sometimes lacks height), but this is a player the team can rely upon the next 2 years to do a good job.
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Overall, I would say that there's a solid foundation for a new HC on the offensive side. The Buffs lose very little from the 2022 team. Unfortunately, that's both good and bad -- good because development, growth and chemistry should be there, bad because this has not been a good offense so it's hard to envision dramatic improvement with mostly the same cast of characters. But there's enough talent to compete and for CU to win a fair share of games as long as the Offense doesn't have to carry the team. Have to figure out QB, most of all, while getting progression from other position groups. Adding a few impact transfers could turn things positive in a hurry.
Next up is the Defense.
Once the 2022 season quickly went off the rails, the question really became whether Karl Dorrell had left the cupboard bare for the next guy or if there was enough talent on the roster heading into 2023 to form the basis of a rebuild.
We're learning a bit more about the younger players every week. This post might be a bit premature, but the HC search is happening now. So I figured it would make sense to look at the roster, not pay any attention to current commits since that's completely in flux, and take a look at what we'll have and where we need the most immediate help.
Offensive Line
For the first time in a long time, we'll have everyone expected to return and actual class balance within this group.
The regular starters have become fairly entrenched and have drastically improved from where this OL was 12 months ago. That still makes it no better than a competent OL, but that's a foundation to get some things done on offense. Below is what's returning (class in parentheses is what the player will be in 2023).
LT - Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan (Junior)
LG - Casey Roddick (Senior)
C - Van Wells (Sophomore)
RG - Tommy Brown (Senior)
RT - Jake Wiley (Junior)
Key Reserves: Frank Fillip (Senior, starting experience at OT), Austin Johnson (Junior, starting experience at C/OG), Noah Fenske (Junior, starting experience at C/OG), Alex Harvey (Junior, playing experience at OT/OG)
Other reserves have not played much, if at all, so all that can be said is that there are another 5 true and redshirt freshman expected to return and develop in the position pipeline.
2023 Needs: If all 14 scholarship OLs return, this is probably a spot where we see 4 or 5 new players, with maybe all of them HS recruits. OL represents 22.7% of your starters (5/22), so the natural number is to have 19/85 scholarship players (83 non-specialist scholarships x 22.7% = 19).
OL Coach: Kyle DeVan was OL Coach at Arizona during Sumlin's last 2 years when OL was the strength of some bad teams. Last year he was the OL Analyst at Michigan, working under Sherrone Moore. Had a rep at UA of being a good recruiter. New HC should have complete authority on choices of assistants, but DeVan wouldn't be a bad "keep" to give the OL some much needed continuity after 3 different position coaches + 1 interim position coach over the past 4 years and significant improvement this year.
Quarterback
Sub-par QB play has been a major issue and no one on the roster has shown he can deliver plus performance from the position.
Key Returnees:
JT Shrout (Junior, part-time starter in 2022). Shrout bring some moxie and a cannon arm, but accuracy and decision-making questions. Probably better as a veteran who can come in for relief than he is someone to be relied upon as a starter.
Owen McCown (Sophomore if he plays any more snaps and doesn't redshirt, part-time starter in 2022). McCown sees the field well and processes information well, especially for a true freshman. Physically needs to develop. Seems to have the tools needed to make all the college throws and, while not a dual-threat, can make the occasional play with his legs. Potentially the QB of the future, but hasn't cemented that role.
Drew Carter (Junior or RS-Sophomore, depending on how much he plays; limited backup snaps in 2022 and 2021). Carter is a plus athlete who has also participated on the CU basketball team as a walk-on. Doesn't appear like he will ever be the starter, but is someone who has the potential to add a positive wrinkle to the offense by entering the game for some "Wildcat" style packages as has been seen in a very limited amount. Useful player to have in the QB room if he stays.
Maddox Kopp (Sophomore, backup). Transfer from Houston who seems to have the frame (6'5") for the position along with solid athleticism. Hasn't done enough to see the field in 2022 and may not factor in any time soon. Needs a lot of development.
2023 Needs: If CU can get a proven grad transfer (Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, etc. have made huge impacts at Pac-12 rivals in 2022), it would make a huge impact on the season prospects. Otherwise, it will likely be a season of developing McCown and hoping that he's ahead of schedule to be a winning P5 quarterback.
QB Coach: Mike Sanford. Also the OC before becoming the Interim HC. (Also Nate Dodson, a young coach whose role expanded after Sanford's mid-season elevation.) Sanford has not improved the offense much from a historically bad 2021, so there's not a lot of faith in him from the fan base as an OC/QB Coach. He has done a very admirable job as I-HC, but I think most CU fans would prefer to see him parlay that into getting a HC opportunity elsewhere than to seem him return on the 2023 staff. Sanford's become a guy to cheer for and fans have come to appreciate, but it's probably best to move on.
Running Back
It looks like a balanced group with complementary skill sets which can be productive. It also doesn't seem to have a guy who can be relied on as a horse to carry the run game every week or anyone who is a game breaker. The only loss from the 2022 backs is Alex Fontenot, who has been a steady, smart and tough RB when healthy, who was reliably productive.
Key Returnees:
Deion Smith (Senior, part-time starter). The most productive back in 2022, Smith is best in the open field when CU can get him in space through short passes or running to the edge.
Jayle Stacks (Junior, backup). Recruited as a fullback, Stacks has transitioned to "big back" and has shown a lot in recent weeks as a north-south runner who has improved his burst enough to not be limited to only running inside the tackles (though he's still a step slow on runs outside the tackles). Useful player who also give FB versatility in a jumbo set.
Anthony Hankerson (Sophomore, part-time starter). Maybe the biggest surprise in 2022, Hankerson went from greyshirt to joining the 2022 roster at the 11th hour. He was still expected to redshirt, but when he got his chance showed himself to be a tough runner and competitor with good balance and acceleration. Potential to be an every down back, but hasn't shown that he can be a game breaker.
Victor Venn (Freshman, battling injuries). Probably the guy who was expected to emerge this year, but he hasn't been able to get healthy and is now likely to redshirt. Breakaway speed, so on paper would be a solid 1-2 punch with Hankerson in the future. Needs a good offseason to put on some mass.
2023 Needs: This is likely a spot where recruiting a freshman or two is all that's needed, but like with any position a transfer should be entertained if a clear upgrade is available.
RB Coach: Darian Hagan. For years, he's gotten productivity from the position under different HCs, OCs and systems. Recruiting is limited and you'd like to see your RB Coach doing a lot more to bring in talent across the roster. Definition of a true Buff, and that's valuable to the team's coaching leadership. New HC will have to make a decision here and if Hagan's role will be as a position coach or something else in 2023.
Wide Receiver
Entering the 2022 season, the focus was on a group of seniors: starters Daniel Arias and RJ Sneed, with Maurice Bell and Jaylin Jackson providing depth. As the season has progressed, underclassmen have take over the top roles and other underclassmen have flashed.
Key Returnees:
Jordyn Tyson (Sophomore, part-time starter). Camp reports were that he has the potential to be special but has to physically develop. He's got a good frame and is young for his class, so this offseason could see a major jump in his physique. Has shown star potential and had big games, including the last one where he also showed his athleticism with a punt return touchdown. Definitely a plus player for the Buffs at WR.
Montana Lemonious-Craig (Junior, part-time starter). Flashed in 2021 and has built on it in 2022. Looks like he can be a very solid #2 WR who makes some tough catches in traffic and has a knack for getting open. Seems like he will be a productive player a team can win with as a starting WR who can play both slot and on the outside.
Chase Penry (Sophomore or Junior - depending on if he ends up playing enough to not redshirt, battling injuries). Flashed in 2021 as a reliable possession receiver who might be a guy who can work out of the slot as a guy who plays with toughness and finds holes in the defense. Sneaky athletic. Not going to be the star WR, but someone who can be a useful, productive piece to a winning offense if he can get healthy.
Ty Robinson (Sophomore, depth). Decent size and athleticism. Has flashed both in 2021 and 2022. Looks like a player who will be a productive piece in the WR rotation and is young enough to have upside.
Chase Sowell (Freshman, redshirting due to injury). Great frame for the position and a lot of upside. Started to flash before injury ended his 2022 season. Potential starter in the future, possibly on the outside with MLC moving to the slot or he should factor in as the primary backup. I'm very high on him.
Grant Page (Freshman, redshirting). Great frame and one of the top in-state recruits in 2022. Nothing much can be said here except that he looks the part and we'll have to see how he develops.
2023 Needs: Need to continue filling this pipeline with good HS recruiting. 6 returning scholarship WRs is not enough when 2-3 start and the position is heavily rotated. You want to have 9 or 10 scholarship WRs, so CU will need to bring in 3 or 4 guys. Potential for a grad transfer here, particularly if it was a jitterbug type who can make things happen in the open field out of the slot.
WR Coach: Phil McGeoghan is new in 2022 and also serves as the Assistant HC. Seems to be a charismatic, energetic coach. Respected career, much of which was in the NFL. Recruiting is a question mark since he doesn't have a track record. Looks like this is a good coach it wouldn't be objectionable if the new HC kept, but again that's totally the new HC's decision.
Tight End
The one player in the 2022 group who has been productive is Brady Russell, who is graduating. This position group will be young in 2023 and needs attention.
Key Returnees:
Caleb Fauria (Sophomore, depth). Good size and athleticism. 2022 has been a developmental year with him getting some playing time. There is probably some potential here, but he hasn't really flashed much so far. Has battled injuries, so may be on track to turn a corner in 2023 as a 4th year sophomore (Covid year is causing some weirdness on eligibility class).
Erik Olson (Sophomore, depth). Pretty much a repeat of the Fauria description. Either or both could be serviceable starters or even have upside beyond that, but we haven't really seen it yet.
Austin Smith (Sophomore, depth). Upside is extremely high. All the physical tools to be a difference maker, but is learning the TE position from the ground up after playing WR in a basic spread offense in HS. Has flashed, including a very athletic touchdown catch.
Zach Courtney & Louis Passarello (RS-Freshman, depth). Two guys who look the part on size & height. Nothing much to be said until we get to see them play and how they develop.
2023 Needs: With 5 scholarship TEs returning, the position group numbers are fine without adding anyone. Maybe a position which was over-recruited the past couple classes. It's a spot where a grad transfer & projected starter would be very helpful. We can get by without a HS signee, but taking 1 to keep the position pipeline clean (and maybe counting on some attrition) would be in order.
TE Coach: Clay Patterson. Came from Minnesota, where he did great work since 2018 with the TE group. Background is OK & TX, with some recruiting chops. Rep as a good teacher who players develop under, which this young group needs. Serving as OC after Sanford's elevation to I-HC. Another assistant coach I wouldn't mind keeping, but again would not force anyone on the new HC.
Specialist (Offense)
Since they score points, I'm putting the Place Kicker here and I'll put the Punter on Defense. We return our PK and are in very good shape.
Cole Becker (Junior, starter). Has done a very good job as our PK for 2 seasons. Has been accurate and can make kicks from distance. In 2022, has been excellent on kickoffs with making sure they are not returnable. Needs a bit of improvement with consistent ball striking on his field goals (sometimes lacks height), but this is a player the team can rely upon the next 2 years to do a good job.
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Overall, I would say that there's a solid foundation for a new HC on the offensive side. The Buffs lose very little from the 2022 team. Unfortunately, that's both good and bad -- good because development, growth and chemistry should be there, bad because this has not been a good offense so it's hard to envision dramatic improvement with mostly the same cast of characters. But there's enough talent to compete and for CU to win a fair share of games as long as the Offense doesn't have to carry the team. Have to figure out QB, most of all, while getting progression from other position groups. Adding a few impact transfers could turn things positive in a hurry.
Next up is the Defense.
