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Where to start
- Thread starter SBG
- Start date
jgisland
Club Member
Start here:
http://www.allbuffs.com/threads/col...es-and-adjusted-for-the-last-5-seasons.68955/ (i'll try to update the last 2 seasons sometime before the start of the season)
Then read/buy this:
Then spend hours here (read the blog posts - they'll introduce you to the plethora of stats on the site and what that means for strategy):
http://kenpom.com
and if that's not enough:
http://www.hoop-math.com
http://www.allbuffs.com/threads/col...es-and-adjusted-for-the-last-5-seasons.68955/ (i'll try to update the last 2 seasons sometime before the start of the season)
Then read/buy this:
Then spend hours here (read the blog posts - they'll introduce you to the plethora of stats on the site and what that means for strategy):
http://kenpom.com
and if that's not enough:
http://www.hoop-math.com
@EscapeFromNMBuff -- with the advanced stats everyone seems to like, I think it's important to point a few things out.
First, the stats that we usually see (such as on the ESPN team page) like rebounds per game are pretty much meaningless. They don't take into account the pace of play.
So, when looking at basketball stats, what you want to look at is how the team does per possession -- offensively or defensively. That will tell you how efficient a team is. Then, you stack on that whether the team is plus or minus on possessions (i.e., if it doesn't turn the ball over, has a high defensive rebounding percentage, has a high offensive rebounding percentage, and/or gets a lot of steals... then the team is gaining possessions on opponents).
Next, you should care about the Effective Field Goal Percentage and you shouldn't give a flying **** about basic shooting percentage. At its simplest level, shooting 33.3% from 3pt range is equivalent to shooting 50.0% from 2pt range (true shooting percentage comes from that). At the next level of complexity, the eFG% brings in foul shooting. Some guys/teams get to the line while some do not. Some make them when they get there while some do not. eFG% is the key driver of both offensive and defensive efficiency, modified by turnovers and rebounding.
(Which brings up another point -- getting to the line is a hell of a lot more important to generating points per possession than shooting a high percentage. Percentage is pretty much inconsequential as long as the team is within the normal range of attempts per game. Obviously, the caveat is that this is something that's true over the course of a season but within a single game a bad night from the line could be a big deal that causes a team to lose.)
Last, I'll bring up "Tadball" in relation to the above.
What does he emphasize? (You are what you emphasize.)
1. Rebounding. Tad hates giving up extra possessions and loves those extra chances on the offensive end.
2. Defense. Tad's teams, when playing defense like he wants, do not foul and force a low true shooting percentage. Not much gambling, so with less fouling comes fewer steals. Idea is to man up, be in the grill of the offensive player, and force him to make shots with a hand in his face.
3. On offense, it's not about pretty motion and back cuts. Tad wants to attack the rim either through feeding the post or dribble-drives. He also wants guys who can knock down 3pt shots off of that action. He's less about making the extra pass and more about being aggressive -- taking the open shot when it's there.
Last season, I'd argue that the team didn't do any of these things all that well. Certainly not up to the normal standards of Tadball. Most glaring was the lack of someone at the guard position who could be a defensive stopper, add something to rebounding and get to the rim (and get fouled or finish). Based on that, I'd say that Dom's development and Fortune's arrival are the big keys to watch this season. Their ability to do what was missing last year -- which Tad's teams had alway done with Corey Higgins, Carlon Brown & Spencer Dinwiddie (among others) -- will determine whether this team is going back to the Dance or not.
First, the stats that we usually see (such as on the ESPN team page) like rebounds per game are pretty much meaningless. They don't take into account the pace of play.
So, when looking at basketball stats, what you want to look at is how the team does per possession -- offensively or defensively. That will tell you how efficient a team is. Then, you stack on that whether the team is plus or minus on possessions (i.e., if it doesn't turn the ball over, has a high defensive rebounding percentage, has a high offensive rebounding percentage, and/or gets a lot of steals... then the team is gaining possessions on opponents).
Next, you should care about the Effective Field Goal Percentage and you shouldn't give a flying **** about basic shooting percentage. At its simplest level, shooting 33.3% from 3pt range is equivalent to shooting 50.0% from 2pt range (true shooting percentage comes from that). At the next level of complexity, the eFG% brings in foul shooting. Some guys/teams get to the line while some do not. Some make them when they get there while some do not. eFG% is the key driver of both offensive and defensive efficiency, modified by turnovers and rebounding.
(Which brings up another point -- getting to the line is a hell of a lot more important to generating points per possession than shooting a high percentage. Percentage is pretty much inconsequential as long as the team is within the normal range of attempts per game. Obviously, the caveat is that this is something that's true over the course of a season but within a single game a bad night from the line could be a big deal that causes a team to lose.)
Last, I'll bring up "Tadball" in relation to the above.
What does he emphasize? (You are what you emphasize.)
1. Rebounding. Tad hates giving up extra possessions and loves those extra chances on the offensive end.
2. Defense. Tad's teams, when playing defense like he wants, do not foul and force a low true shooting percentage. Not much gambling, so with less fouling comes fewer steals. Idea is to man up, be in the grill of the offensive player, and force him to make shots with a hand in his face.
3. On offense, it's not about pretty motion and back cuts. Tad wants to attack the rim either through feeding the post or dribble-drives. He also wants guys who can knock down 3pt shots off of that action. He's less about making the extra pass and more about being aggressive -- taking the open shot when it's there.
Last season, I'd argue that the team didn't do any of these things all that well. Certainly not up to the normal standards of Tadball. Most glaring was the lack of someone at the guard position who could be a defensive stopper, add something to rebounding and get to the rim (and get fouled or finish). Based on that, I'd say that Dom's development and Fortune's arrival are the big keys to watch this season. Their ability to do what was missing last year -- which Tad's teams had alway done with Corey Higgins, Carlon Brown & Spencer Dinwiddie (among others) -- will determine whether this team is going back to the Dance or not.
FrankRizzo
Active Member
Yes
ShockerHoops
Well-Known Member
THANK YOU.
What a simple but great site. I've never even heard of it. A million thanks.
"Basketball on Paper" by Dean Oliver
Thx!