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Which conference is more likely to break apart: ACC or Big 12?

ACC or Big 12 the weaker conference?

  • ACC more likely to break apart

    Votes: 19 26.4%

  • Big 12 more likely to break apart

    Votes: 53 73.6%
  • Total voters
    72
Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Maryland is suing to nullify the Grant of Rights deal that causes them to owe the ACC $53 million.

Let's say they win. If that were to happen, we'd be back to open season on conference realignment.

Would the SEC be more likely to get to 16 through ACC teams (Clemson, FSU, GA Tech, NC State, VA Tech, Louisville and UNC have all been mentioned) or more likely to get to 16 through Big 12 teams (WVU, OU and OSU have all been mentioned)?

Would the B1G be more likely to look East (Boston College and Syracuse) or West (Kansas and Oklahoma)?

If it became a mix of both losing and the remaining looked to find a home, would it be more likely that the ACC pulled in Big 12 programs or the other way around?
 
Not quite sure how solid grant of rights deals are - they sure seem more enforcable than exit penalties. I thought MD did not agree to the grant of rights as in they voted against the new ACC exit policy and more importantly had already given notice to leave. They are suing the ACC for withholding money and for trying to impose a fine....and in particular those types of fines don't seem enforceable, as we all saw with the Big 12 defections.

I would say that the Big 12 is far more unstable. Even though they agreed to a grant of rights, it's clearly a have versus have-not conference. One way to get around the grant of rights would be to just dissolve the conference by vote (is it still 75%?). There actually might be enough slots in the other four power conferences that enough B12 schools would agree to disband (I see 10 possible slots total, 4 in p12, and 2 each in the other 3....and yes a couple schools could get screwed). There definitely are not enough slots for ACC schools to land in, so there's basically no way to disband by vote (only 6 landing spaces because the pac is geographically isolated so there would not be enough votes to disband).
 
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Texas and their selfishness will do much more harm to the Big XII than any one team could in the ACC since Notre Dame is independent in football
 
OU just needs one reason to leave the Big 12 and I think they would go. That would do it. I think the ACC can exist just for the tradition of bball. The Big 12 has nothing left in all honesty if OU leaves. Everyone else abandons ship at that point.
 
Oklahoma and Texas are joined at the hip. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are joined at the hip. Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU and West Virginia are thrilled to death to be in a conference where they can prostrate themselves before Texas and Oklahoma.
 
Assuming one of the two collapses, I think it's 51% probable that the it's the BigXII. Geographically they're a mess. Academically and culturally, the schools are too different. ACC fans continue to hope and dream of Texas coming over (most don't spend as much time on Allbuffs as I do). Despite the couch burning, if WVU would even pretend to be concerned about academics, I'd love to see them in the ACC (huge rabid fan base, plus we win back the DC market following Maryland's departure).

That being said, I consider the following to be ACC "flight risks", listed in order of probability (with conferences most likely to be their destination):
1. FSU (SEC, BigXII)
2. North Carolina (B1G, SEC) -- if they go B1G, I think UVA goes with them.
3. Georgia Tech (you know the B1G is salivating over the ATL TV market)
4. Virginia Tech (SEC)
5. Clemson (Big XII)
6. UVA, but only in the scenario where they tag alone with UNC or GIT
7. Duke and Wake leave and join some conference of religious schools focused on basketball
 
Lt.Col.FrankSlade said:
Oklahoma and Texas are joined at the hip. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are joined at the hip. Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU and West Virginia are thrilled to death to be in a conference where they can prostrate themselves before Texas and Oklahoma.
Click to expand...

Here's a hypothetical.

Let's say that the B1G invited Missouri and Mizzou bolted the SEC. If the SEC responded by giving Oklahoma State an opportunity to do what Texas A&M had done, I think they'd jump at it. I don't think the political pressure goes both ways in equal amounts.

If that happened, Kansas would lobby hard to join Mizzou and Nebraska in the B1G (KSU be damned).

WVU would leave the Big 12 in a heartbeat if the ACC or especially the SEC came calling.

Those cards could fall. And if they did (or something similar), I would be that Larry Scott would make a move at OU. And OU would listen.
 
Very true. I've heard some booner fans actually (painfully) say that they need tejass. Media exposure and recruiting are the 2 biggest reasons.
 
I really don't think either conference is in much danger of falling apart at this point. OU is the lynchpin for the B12, though. If the SEC comes calling, and they decide they've had it with UT running the show, the B12 falls apart. However, I give that about a .000001% chance of happening. OU and UT are two peas in a pod, and OU is perfectly happy letting UT get all the blame for stuff that happens in the conference when in fact, they're probably as big a contributor as anybody.
 
I think OU likes where they are now especially with the 4 team play off going into effect. No championship game as an extra hurdle. They'll just really, really, really miss Mack Brown.
 
Buffnik said:
Here's a hypothetical.

Let's say that the B1G invited Missouri and Mizzou bolted the SEC. If the SEC responded by giving Oklahoma State an opportunity to do what Texas A&M had done, I think they'd jump at it. I don't think the political pressure goes both ways in equal amounts.

If that happened, Kansas would lobby hard to join Mizzou and Nebraska in the B1G (KSU be damned).

WVU would leave the Big 12 in a heartbeat if the ACC or especially the SEC came calling.

Those cards could fall. And if they did (or something similar), I would be that Larry Scott would make a move at OU. And OU would listen.
Click to expand...

A couple of scenarios could move something like this to happen. If Texas and OU got invitations to go elsewhere, could be the B1G, the SEC, or the PAC, and Texas decided to move OU would feel the pressure to go with them. They are tied to OSU but they could make a deal that leaves it an OOC game or they could say damn the politics we are going and do it before anyone could stop them. The Big can't count without Texas and OU becomes almost the MWC. OSU generates enough money to get an invite from another conference trying to position to 16, they need a partner. Kansas is a logical choice and faced with being a mid-major along with KSU or a major going without them the dollars make them go.

It would even be possible that OU and OSU seeing an imminent break up of the B12 and seeing the loss of millions of dollars a year in a conference without UT find that the best deal they can get means splitting up. Again look at MWC payouts vs. P5 payouts and suddenly history doesn't mean that much, see aTm.
 
ACC has stabilized itself pretty decently and there are some behind the scenes complications that would make, say, VT waltzing off to the SEC not particularly feasible.
 
If this has been posted, I apologize, but a pecker contest between ND, OU, and Texas would be the end of the world. Especially if it was for the Big 12, please let me see that before I die, I'm already in the death pool.
 
hokiehead said:
Assuming one of the two collapses, I think it's 51% probable that the it's the BigXII. Geographically they're a mess. Academically and culturally, the schools are too different. ACC fans continue to hope and dream of Texas coming over (most don't spend as much time on Allbuffs as I do). Despite the couch burning, if WVU would even pretend to be concerned about academics, I'd love to see them in the ACC (huge rabid fan base, plus we win back the DC market following Maryland's departure).

That being said, I consider the following to be ACC "flight risks", listed in order of probability (with conferences most likely to be their destination):
1. FSU (SEC, BigXII)
2. North Carolina (B1G, SEC) -- if they go B1G, I think UVA goes with them.
3. Georgia Tech (you know the B1G is salivating over the ATL TV market)
4. Virginia Tech (SEC)
5. Clemson (Big XII)
6. UVA, but only in the scenario where they tag alone with UNC or GIT
7. Duke and Wake leave and join some conference of religious schools focused on basketball
Click to expand...

As CVille already pointed out, the ACC has stabilized itself after it was looking like there might be some deflections to the Big 12 or Big 10 a few years ago. And now they've got ND locked down in this deal where if they were to get off their high horse and join a conference it can only be the ACC until something like 2025.

You have UNC listed 2nd but I think they're one of the least likely teams to leave the ACC, especially with Swofford running things. Although I'm surprised that the SEC hasn't made a stronger run at one of the North Carolina schools to get a better foothold in this state.
 
BuffLuKe said:
If this has been posted, I apologize, but a pecker contest between ND, OU, and Texas would be the end of the world. Especially if it was for the Big 12, please let me see that before I die, I'm already in the death pool.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't take the Irish in a pecker contest.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
As CVille already pointed out, the ACC has stabilized itself after it was looking like there might be some deflections to the Big 12 or Big 10 a few years ago. And now they've got ND locked down in this deal where if they were to get off their high horse and join a conference it can only be the ACC until something like 2025.

You have UNC listed 2nd but I think they're one of the least likely teams to leave the ACC, especially with Swofford running things. Although I'm surprised that the SEC hasn't made a stronger run at one of the North Carolina schools to get a better foothold in this state.
Click to expand...

I agree on UNC. They are the most powerful school in the conference behind the scenes. They wouldn't have that clout anywhere else. NC State fits the SEC mold far better than UNC, despite also being a basketball school.
 
Agree with all you said. AND, ncsu doesn't have the fan base, national recognition or academics of UNC. Doubling their annual income with a move to the SEC may outweigh having "clout"
 
Key is OU in the Big XII. They decide to tell UT to **** themselves and the conference goes kablooie and sets off the next round. I still think OU and OSU could be the target of LS along with kU. Add in a Houston or SMU and watch it fall apart. The ACC will hold because of bball longterm. Too much to Tobacco Road and their blue blood bball tradition to see it fall completely apart.
 
hokiehead said:
Agree with all you said. AND, ncsu doesn't have the fan base, national recognition or academics of UNC. Doubling their annual income with a move to the SEC may outweigh having "clout"
Click to expand...

The Wolfpack has a better football fanbase than UNC.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
The Wolfpack has a better football fanbase than UNC.
Click to expand...

They've been a sleeping giant in football for quite a while. They've certainly come a long way since the Mike O'Cain days in regards to fan support, facilities, etc but there's still room for pretty sizable growth.
 
Lt.Col.FrankSlade said:
Oklahoma and Texas are joined at the hip. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are joined at the hip. Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU and West Virginia are thrilled to death to be in a conference where they can prostrate themselves before Texas and Oklahoma.
Click to expand...

Just like A&M and Mizzou right? Those guys would never leave.
 
hokiehead said:
Assuming one of the two collapses, I think it's 51% probable that the it's the BigXII. Geographically they're a mess. Academically and culturally, the schools are too different. ACC fans continue to hope and dream of Texas coming over (most don't spend as much time on Allbuffs as I do). Despite the couch burning, if WVU would even pretend to be concerned about academics, I'd love to see them in the ACC (huge rabid fan base, plus we win back the DC market following Maryland's departure).

That being said, I consider the following to be ACC "flight risks", listed in order of probability (with conferences most likely to be their destination):
1. FSU (SEC, BigXII)
2. North Carolina (B1G, SEC) -- if they go B1G, I think UVA goes with them.
3. Georgia Tech (you know the B1G is salivating over the ATL TV market)
4. Virginia Tech (SEC)
5. Clemson (Big XII)
6. UVA, but only in the scenario where they tag alone with UNC or GIT
7. Duke and Wake leave and join some conference of religious schools focused on basketball
Click to expand...

Interesting that you see Clemson going to the math challenged conference and not the SEC. Money and football are far better in the SEC and the cost of travel is much less.
 
But the SEC isn't really interested in Clemson since they already have a footprint in SC. Just like they weren't all that interested in FSU.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I577 using Tapatalk 2
 
CarolinaBuff said:
But the SEC isn't really interested in Clemson since they already have a footprint in SC. Just like they weren't all that interested in FSU.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I577 using Tapatalk 2
Click to expand...

Ok that makes sense then if you are thinking in terms of the confrence expansion gains and not program fit. You'd have to figure a N.C. school and a DC area school would be next to lock up that area.
 
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