Who is Exceeding Expectations? Who is Disappointing?

[Quattro]

We are half way through the season, so what Pac 12 teams have overachieved and which ones have underachieved?

	Team	Adj Offense	Adj Defense	Expected W%	Expected W	Actual W	Diff	Expected Tot W
1	OSU	31.42	36.21	0.417	2.1	4	1.9	5.0
2	Arizona	31.69	20.63	0.734	3.7	5	1.3	8.8
3	Cal	53.66	48.15	0.564	2.8	4	1.2	6.8
4	ASU	41.67	33.54	0.626	3.1	4	0.9	7.5
5	Washington	34.24	23.39	0.712	3.6	4	0.4	8.5
6	Colorado	24.00	31.9	0.338	2.0	2	0.0	4.1
7	Utah	33.86	18.61	0.805	4.0	4	0.0	9.7
8	UCLA	43.36	22.76	0.822	4.1	4	-0.1	9.9
9	Oregon	41.67	21.82	0.822	4.1	4	-0.1	9.9
10	USC	31.74	19.34	0.764	3.8	3	-0.8	9.2
11	Wazzu	29.15	28.21	0.519	3.1	2	-1.1	6.2
12	Stanford	24.47	8.98	0.915	4.6	3	-1.6	11.0

So, Oregon State according to this is the "luckiest" team in the conference thus far winning nearly two games above their projection based on adjusted offensive and defensive stats. Stanford has had the worst "luck" this season, winning 1.6 games less than they were expected to. Despite Stanford's bad luck, they are still projected to have the best overall record in the Pac 12. I still maintain that UA and Utah are vastly overrated at this point and both will come crashing back to Earth soon. Obviously there are flaws in this like the schedule going forward, but still an interesting look.

 

[absinthe]

Been impressed with Buffnik's work of late despite burnout, Duff to. Boydbuff leading with quantity over follow up.

I think Burrito and Skiddy have lost a step.

Also I've lost a step, came into camp over weight, too much legal weed and Fatty Jay's. I'll play myself into shape during basketball season.

 

[Deleted member 807]

I think Burrito and Skiddy have lost a step.

The place just ain't the same ever since Junction kicked the bucket.
It's 'Tini's world now and the rest of us just live in it.

 

[Burrito]

It's a topsy turvy world and I am adrift. But that shall not deter me! I vow to be more unhelpful than ever!

 

[Swish]

It's 'Tini's world now and the rest of us just live in it.

So does this make FLounder his vice dictator?

 

[Burrito]

So does this make FLounder his vice dicpictor?

Fify.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Fify.

That's a quality fify. He's still got it.

 

[SpacemanSpiff]

That's a quality fify. He's still got it.

He definitely flashes.

 

[WizzersGhost]

It's a topsy turvy world and I am adrift. But that shall not deter me! I vow to be more unhelpful than ever!

UN.POSSIBLE.

 

[DeNiro]

He definitely flashes.

This is how I've always pictured him.

 

[goalline]

One of the best thread jacks ever. It's amazing how narcissistic allbuffs can be at its best.

As to the OP, I think Oregon is going to continue to disappoint. They're a team that was shooting for a national championship, and once the dream is gone they'll all head out for weed together.

 

[SpacemanSpiff]

This is how I've always pictured him.

That's him. But with less hair. Oh, and the free wifi is definitely him. He's a giver.

 

[Bufffan68]

We are half way through the season, so what Pac 12 teams have overachieved and which ones have underachieved?

	Team	Adj Offense	Adj Defense	Expected W%	Expected W	Actual W	Diff	Expected Tot W
1	OSU	31.42	36.21	0.417	2.1	4	1.9	5.0
2	Arizona	31.69	20.63	0.734	3.7	5	1.3	8.8
3	Cal	53.66	48.15	0.564	2.8	4	1.2	6.8
4	ASU	41.67	33.54	0.626	3.1	4	0.9	7.5
5	Washington	34.24	23.39	0.712	3.6	4	0.4	8.5
6	Colorado	24.00	31.9	0.338	2.0	2	0.0	4.1
7	Utah	33.86	18.61	0.805	4.0	4	0.0	9.7
8	UCLA	43.36	22.76	0.822	4.1	4	-0.1	9.9
9	Oregon	41.67	21.82	0.822	4.1	4	-0.1	9.9
10	USC	31.74	19.34	0.764	3.8	3	-0.8	9.2
11	Wazzu	29.15	28.21	0.519	3.1	2	-1.1	6.2
12	Stanford	24.47	8.98	0.915	4.6	3	-1.6	11.0

So, Oregon State according to this is the "luckiest" team in the conference thus far winning nearly two games above their projection based on adjusted offensive and defensive stats. Stanford has had the worst "luck" this season, winning 1.6 games less than they were expected to. Despite Stanford's bad luck, they are still projected to have the best overall record in the Pac 12. I still maintain that UA and Utah are vastly overrated at this point and both will come crashing back to Earth soon. Obviously there are flaws in this like the schedule going forward, but still an interesting look.

I think Stanford is the best team...they dominated USC but didn't execute when it mattered. They also lost on a last second play to a very good ND team. I think the most overrated team is UCLA.

I'm not sure AZ and UU are vastly overrated, I think they are good teams. Is AZ the 10th best team in the country? Probably not, but certainly top 25. Cal is a few plays away from being 2-3, we are a few plays away from being 4-2, UO is a favorable call away from being 3-2. I think the parity in the PAC12 is ridiculous...I can see any team beating another on any given Saturday...which hasn't been the case since it became the PAC12.

 

[Darth Snow]

Interesting. We are who our record says we are.

 

[Dark Bohner]

As to the OP, I think Oregon is going to continue to disappoint. They're a team that was shooting for a national championship, and once the dream is gone they'll all head out for weed together.

How is that disappointing?

 

[Burrito]

That's him. But with less hair. Oh, and the free wifi is definitely him. He's a giver.

No Wi-Fi for you. I'm wearing an orange shirt today.

 

[FlatironsBuff]

One of the best thread jacks ever. It's amazing how narcissistic allbuffs can be at its best.

As to the OP, I think Oregon is going to continue to disappoint. They're a team that was shooting for a national championship, and once the dream is gone they'll all head out for weed together.

Oregon was always going to disappoint once Kelly left and they hired Hellitch. Everyone here knew it was only a matter of how slow they would implode, not if.