Why Does This Team Struggle To Close With A Lead?

[J-R-K]

WSU #1: Seven point lead with thirty seconds left, they ended up with a three at the end to tie.

Washington: Fifteen point lead with seven minutes left, win by one point and they had a shot for the win.

USC: Fourteen point lead with eight minutes left, they not only won but got up to a double-digit lead.

Arizona: Ten point lead with three minutes left, they had a three at the end to tie.

SMU: Seven point lead with seven minutes left, lost.

Stanford: Ten point lead with seven minutes left, sixteen point lead earlier in the half, won by one.

Utah #1: Seven point lead with four minutes left, lost.

WSU #2: Ten point lead with twelve minutes left, went to OT.

Utah #2: Fourteen point lead with seven minutes left, lost.

Penn State: Nine point lead with a minute and a half left, won by one.

Kudos to the team for playing well earlier in these games and getting a lead, but still. There is a skill to closing out games; SDSU just had a streak of 164 straight wins when leading a game with five minutes left.

In general regarding close games we've had fourteen games this year that came down to the final couple of possessions. Our record in those games is a solid 9-5. However shockingly given that record, in all of those games except for just one (Oregon) we were outplayed in the final minutes.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Inconsistent to bad guard play. Lacking a guy who consistently makes the big shot when it matters. I'm not talking buzzer beater. I'm talking when the other team has cut a 14 point lead to 7 and then your guy hits a three, grabs a board, gets fouled and just blunted a run

 

[jgisland]

Is this your quarterly passive aggressive Tad Boyle is a ****ty basketball coach troll thread?

As of January 11th - Tad is 37-23 in games decided by 6 or less. I also included OT games that were decided by more than 6 points.

This year:
In games decided by five points or less the Buffs are 7-4.
In games decided by ten points or less the Buffs are 5-2.

 

[Buffnik]

As I have posted elsewhere, I believe the narrative of this season is more that it struggles to put a full 40 minutes together. We've seen horrible starts, horrible finishes, and horrible stretches in between. We've also seen dominant starts, dominant finishes, and dominant stretches in between.

Which leaves us with a team it's hard to trust and also hard to count out no matter the opponent or situation.

 

[CVilleBuff]

To be fair, this lead thing is very odd. I have never seen a team blow so many 15 point leads before. Maybe the shorter clock plays into it, but this is not a normal occurrence. I remember some 15 point comebacks with 7 minutes left as "great comebacks", now we're letting teams do it on us left and right

 

[J-R-K]

Is this your quarterly passive aggressive Tad Boyle is a ****ty basketball coach troll thread?

As of January 11th - Tad is 37-23 in games decided by 6 or less. I also included OT games that were decided by more than 6 points.

This year:
In games decided by five points or less the Buffs are 7-4.
In games decided by ten points or less the Buffs are 5-2.

Maybe you didn't read the last sentence? I pointed out that our record is good in close games. However we really haven't played well at the end of those games. More often then not in those wins we built a lead and were able to hold on and the loses were games that we were in a very good position to win only to blow it. To repeat the Oregon game was the only close game this season (out of about fourteen) in which we really outplayed the other team in the final minutes.

A win is a win but the records you posted above don't accurately reflect how this team has fared in crunch time.

 

[Buffnik]

To be fair, this lead thing is very odd. I have never seen a team blow so many 15 point leads before. Maybe the shorter clock plays into it, but this is not a normal occurrence. I remember some 15 point comebacks with 7 minutes left as "great comebacks", now we're letting teams do it on us left and right

Excessive with CU, for sure. But do you agree that it seems to be happening more often in general? I noticed it all season when I was doing the Resume updates that no lead seemed safe and there even seemed to be a lot of games where there would be a 5 or 7 point lead with almost no time left that was suddenly in OT with the next scoreboard update. Or 15-20 point halftime leads that went away. Since you were watching that stuff as much as I was, I was curious if you had the same impression this year.

 

[jgisland]

Maybe you didn't read the last sentence? I pointed out that our record is good in close games. However we really haven't played well at the end of those games. More often then not in those wins we built a lead and were able to hold on and the loses were games that we were in a very good position to win only to blow it. To repeat the Oregon game was the only close game this season (out of about fourteen) in which we really outplayed the other team in the final minutes.

A win is a win but the records you posted above don't accurately reflect how this team has fared in crunch time.

I was always under the impression you played to win?

 

[absinthe]

To be fair, this lead thing is very odd. I have never seen a team blow so many 15 point leads before. Maybe the shorter clock plays into it, but this is not a normal occurrence. I remember some 15 point comebacks with 7 minutes left as "great comebacks", now we're letting teams do it on us left and right

I am too lazy to dig into it but I wonder what the data looks like if the OP didnt just cherry pick games we lost leads in, we had a couple comebacks of our own, we had games where we pulled away.

RK looked at this a little in context for Tad Ball here:
http://bsndenver.com/badball-examining-colorados-late-game-meltdowns/

 

[absinthe]

this is a good snipet from RK on the Utah "blown lead" basketball is a game of runs we went on one to come from behind to take a lead, they went on one to answer:

"3/5/16: The latest. A Tory Miller layup caps off a 16-0 run to give the Buffs a 14-point lead over Utah with just over eight minutes to go. Colorado promptly allows a 19-0 run to the Utes and is eventually"

We were down 2, went on a run got up 14, utah answered with a run to go up 5.

 

[NWD Buff]

Did anybody else get through the OP and wonder where the asshole portion went? Kept waiting for it, and it never really came.

 

[Sykobuff]

Go look at the play by play of those games. CU gets the big lead. They call to, hit a three and cu has a few turnovers in a row and the lead is already half gone within a minute and a half.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Excessive with CU, for sure. But do you agree that it seems to be happening more often in general? I noticed it all season when I was doing the Resume updates that no lead seemed safe and there even seemed to be a lot of games where there would be a 5 or 7 point lead with almost no time left that was suddenly in OT with the next scoreboard update. Or 15-20 point halftime leads that went away. Since you were watching that stuff as much as I was, I was curious if you had the same impression this year.

I think it's happening more often. USC blew a 21 point lead at Washington, the other night OSU damn near threw away a 13 point lead with like 3 minutes left. Hell, UVA erased a 10 point defecit in 15 seconds. We've got to be at the top of the list though. And yes, we've had our comebacks as well. It's actually crazy how many times we've been involved one way or the other

 

[torero]

Cal blew an 8 point lead in 90 seconds in Tuscon last week. Its not just a Buff thing. That doesn't make it okay.

 

[BuffG]

When both of your PG's lack composure--to put it nicely--and you are nationally elite in 3 pt shooting & rebounding then you get fun scenarios like building big leads before blowing them.

 

[aghcsm]

this is a good snipet from RK on the Utah "blown lead" basketball is a game of runs we went on one to come from behind to take a lead, they went on one to answer:

"3/5/16: The latest. A Tory Miller layup caps off a 16-0 run to give the Buffs a 14-point lead over Utah with just over eight minutes to go. Colorado promptly allows a 19-0 run to the Utes and is eventually"

We were down 2, went on a run got up 14, utah answered with a run to go up 5.

Because of great emotional (and perhaps financial) attachment to our Buffs, we tend to see the 16-0 run as solely due to our excellent offensive and defensive performance, and the subsequent 0-19 run as solely due to our extremely poor offense and defense. (Ok, there's some poor referee input also recognized as significant, but only during the 0-19 run.) Obviously I'm extreming to make the point, but Utah was not prepared to let their Senior final game slip away if at all possible, especially against a team they felt they should beat. I'm sure the same story in reverse played in Utah - terrible play in the 2nd half suddenly reverting to excellent play to close out the game with a well deserved win.

Still, hard to stomach the excitement of a looming win of real significance for the program being smashed to bitter disappointment. Hopefully the fresh start tomorrow will bring energy and focus to put in 40 minutes of great Buff play.

 

[BuffG]

Because of great emotional (and perhaps financial) attachment to our Buffs, we tend to see the 16-0 run as solely due to our excellent offensive and defensive performance, and the subsequent 0-19 run as solely due to our extremely poor offense and defense. (Ok, there's some poor referee input also recognized as significant, but only during the 0-19 run.) Obviously I'm extreming to make the point, but Utah was not prepared to let their Senior final game slip away if at all possible, especially against a team they felt they should beat. I'm sure the same story in reverse played in Utah - terrible play in the 2nd half suddenly reverting to excellent play to close out the game with a well deserved win.

Still, hard to stomach the excitement of a looming win of real significance for the program being smashed to bitter disappointment. Hopefully the fresh start tomorrow will bring energy and focus to put in 40 minutes of great Buff play.

I hear you. I expected us to lose that game by 5+ points before it started. For me, the runs are inevitable each way but, how you respond to them--particularly in crunch time is in your control. Brandon Taylor stole the ball from Dom twice in the last 4 minutes & Dom responded with an ugly retaliation foul on their best free throw shooter while the Utes were in the double bonus. With 35 seconds left, 27 seconds on the shot clock, 54-55 score, Tad ordered Yaz to foul Brandon Taylor 5 feet beyond the 3 point line. Why? BT was on fire from the stripe & they were shooting below 20% on 3's. Then, our next possession, down 3, they let Scott waltz to the hoop because they're up 3 & a layup does little with 20 seconds left & he proceeds to miss it. It was clear Scott choked because he missed a bunny with no one around him when he should have been looking for a shooter to try to tie it up.

TLDR There is little awareness for time, score, & situations. It runs deeper than just giving up a run.