jgisland
Club Member
I can't make it to Laramie on Saturday so I am going to compensate for it by doing a ridiculously long preview:
There is a lot that worries me about Wyoming, they defend well, they have two physical forwards that rebound well and they play at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. CU is off to a great start but Dan Hanner in College Basketball Prospectus had Wyoming 58[SUP]th[/SUP] in his pre-season lineup driven team projections and CU at 66[SUP]th[/SUP]. Ken Pomeroy currently has CU 61[SUP]st[/SUP] and Wyoming at 86[SUP]th[/SUP] with CU projected to win by 1 (62-61) so even though Wyoming’s 7-0 start is due in large part to a weak early season schedule this is anything from a sure victory.
IMO there are 4 things that CU needs to do to win the game, they can probably manage to do 3 of them well and 1 not so well and still get the win.
1) Get off to a better start, especially Dinwiddie, he is shooting 26% on FG (32% eFG) in 1st half this yr and shooting 71% FG (91% eFG) in the 2nd half. As a team CU is shooting 43% FG's (38% eFG) in 1st half and 51% on FG's (54% eFG) in 2nd half. They are also turning the ball over on 25% of possessions in the first half and only 17% of possessions in the second half. To put it simply, in the first real road game of the season CU must get out to a better start than they have to date.
2) Keep Lenard Washington and Larry Nance off the boards: Washington (6-7) is tearing it up on the boards this year, with a defensive rebound % of 29.9% (7[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation). Conversely Dre is rebounding 24.7% of defensive rebounds (68[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation). Larry Nance (6-8) is also doing a great job on the boards bringing down 14% of Wyoming’s offensive boards. Dre, Scott and XJ are going to have to do a good job of boxing these guys out when shots go up.
3) Defend the 3: CU has let Wofford and Texas Southern go off from the 3pt line this year. If CU doesn’t defend Luke Martinez he will make Wyoming the next to do so. Last season Martinez only shot 34% from behind the arc but he managed to go 4-8 for 50% from 3 against CU and had an eFG% of 75% in Boulder. This year he is off to a solid start shooting 42% from 3 and is boosting an eFG% of 57.1%.
4) Shoot better than they did last year against Wyoming: Last year Wyoming out shot CU by 10.56% and that was the ultimate difference in the game.
Here is a recap of what happened last year:
There is a lot that worries me about Wyoming, they defend well, they have two physical forwards that rebound well and they play at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. CU is off to a great start but Dan Hanner in College Basketball Prospectus had Wyoming 58[SUP]th[/SUP] in his pre-season lineup driven team projections and CU at 66[SUP]th[/SUP]. Ken Pomeroy currently has CU 61[SUP]st[/SUP] and Wyoming at 86[SUP]th[/SUP] with CU projected to win by 1 (62-61) so even though Wyoming’s 7-0 start is due in large part to a weak early season schedule this is anything from a sure victory.
IMO there are 4 things that CU needs to do to win the game, they can probably manage to do 3 of them well and 1 not so well and still get the win.
1) Get off to a better start, especially Dinwiddie, he is shooting 26% on FG (32% eFG) in 1st half this yr and shooting 71% FG (91% eFG) in the 2nd half. As a team CU is shooting 43% FG's (38% eFG) in 1st half and 51% on FG's (54% eFG) in 2nd half. They are also turning the ball over on 25% of possessions in the first half and only 17% of possessions in the second half. To put it simply, in the first real road game of the season CU must get out to a better start than they have to date.
2) Keep Lenard Washington and Larry Nance off the boards: Washington (6-7) is tearing it up on the boards this year, with a defensive rebound % of 29.9% (7[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation). Conversely Dre is rebounding 24.7% of defensive rebounds (68[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation). Larry Nance (6-8) is also doing a great job on the boards bringing down 14% of Wyoming’s offensive boards. Dre, Scott and XJ are going to have to do a good job of boxing these guys out when shots go up.
3) Defend the 3: CU has let Wofford and Texas Southern go off from the 3pt line this year. If CU doesn’t defend Luke Martinez he will make Wyoming the next to do so. Last season Martinez only shot 34% from behind the arc but he managed to go 4-8 for 50% from 3 against CU and had an eFG% of 75% in Boulder. This year he is off to a solid start shooting 42% from 3 and is boosting an eFG% of 57.1%.
4) Shoot better than they did last year against Wyoming: Last year Wyoming out shot CU by 10.56% and that was the ultimate difference in the game.
Here is a recap of what happened last year:
| CATEGORY | Colorado | Wyoming | DIFFERENCE |
| FGA | 49 | 46 | 3 |
| FTA | 19 | 23 | -4 |
| True Shoot Attempts (FGA + 0.475 x FTA) | 58.025 | 56.925 | 1.1 |
| Off Rebs | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| TOs | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| ORB - TO | -6 | -8 | 2 |
| TS% | 46.53% | 57.09% | -10.56% |
| ORB% | 25% | 26% | |
| TO% | 23% | 23% | |
| Points/100 Poss | 84.38 | 100.00 |
