XJ vs Dre freshman year

[jgisland]

There is no doubt that XJ has taken his game to the next level the last two weeks. So 20 games into the season I think it is appropriate to start the comparison between XJ and Dre's freshman year. Dre played 38 games so this is just about a perfect mid-way comparison.

Ht	Ht	Wt	Yr	G	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FTM-FTA	Pct	2PM-2PA	Pct	3PM-3PA	Pct
Andre Roberson	6 7	195	Fr	38	55.2	118	16.3	14.1	61.5	60.9	15.1	25.5	6.8	18.3	5	3.5	5.3	3.2	43.7	42-76	0.553	89-139	0.64	Dec-35	0.343
Xavier Johnson	6 6	220	Fr	20	51.9	95.2	21.7	19.8	55.9	56.8	7	14	3.5	25.1	2.1	0.6	5.8	4.5	56.8	36-63	0.571	47-81	0.58	30-Oct	0.333

Looking at their comparative KenPom.com numbers Dre is clearly a step ahead in nearly every category, but it is important to note as Dre has become more involved on the offensive end his offensive rating, true shooting %, eFG% and offensive rebound % have all gone down. XJ is definitely more involved on the offensive end that Dre was his freshman year as he is using more possessions and taking more shots when he is on the court than Dre was.

Player	FGA	TS%	%Shots at Rim	FG% at Rim	%Assisted at Rim	%Shots 2pt Jumpers	FG% 2pt Jumpers	%Assisted 2pt Jumpers	%Shots 3pt	FG% 3pt	%assisted 3pt	FTA/FGA	FT%
Andre Roberson	134	0.594	65%	68%	34%	16%	29%	50%	19%	38%	100%	0.45	55%
Xavier Johnson	107	0.557	42%	78%	60%	32%	29%	20%	26%	32%	78%	0.58	56%

Dre took most of his shots at the rim while XJ takes significantly more jumpers than Dre did.

XJ has definitely had the light bulb go on in the last few games, I fully expect a guy with his talent to continue to see his numbers improve. While XJ doesn't match up to Dre statistically he certainly is playing a much different role in the offense that Dre did his freshman year. CU needs XJ's contributions in ways a team with Burks and Higgins never did with Dre.

I'll try to revisit this a couple of times as the season goes on and see how XJ is progressing.

 

[sackman]

I don't really know what all those numbers mean. I do know that XJ is rapidly becoming the most complete offensive threat on this team. He also has a Dre-like knack for finding a rebound. I can't remember seeing a guy who has the hops this kid has. He makes it look effortless.

 

[Goose]

Honestly, I think Dre's offensive numbers are slightly inflated. He was playing on a team with five other guys that were putting up ORating numbers of 108 or higher. The other two rotation guys were Marcus Relphorde (who had an ORating of 103) and Shannon Sharpe (97.3). That took a LOT of pressure off of Dre on the offensive side. Meanwhile X is playing with only two guys that have ratings above 108 (The Mayor & Jelly) and only two other guys who are above 100 (Chen & Dre).

I'm not saying what Dre did his frosh year wasn't more impressive, I'm just saying that if you put XJ onto that team, his numbers would be slightly better than the one's he's put up so far.

 

[jgisland]

I'm not saying what Dre did his frosh year wasn't more impressive, I'm just saying that if you put XJ onto that team, his numbers would be slightly better than the one's he's put up so far.

I concur, XJ is so much more aggressive and involved than Dre was his freshman year. If you put XJ on that team I think he would have much better numbers just from the amount of easy looks that Burks and Higgins would have gotten him.

 

[jwhite17]

XJ as a true frosh is already better offensively than Dre today. His skillset is very versatile.

Dre did most of his damage cleaning up the class on the offensive end for Burks, Relphorde, Higgins, and Knutson. He was the 5th option, and you could make the argument that he was really the 7th option after Tomlinson and Dufault due to his inability to shoot.

XJ doesn't have that luxury. He is the ONLY scoring option off the bench. Our team is very limited offensively when one guy from our top four is off, and Dre still can't generate offense for himself. Our bench is completely unreliable. Adams, Tunks, Chen, Talton and Stalzer can't score consistently.

Adams has potential, but he doesn't have confidence in his shot. Chen shoots 25% from three, not good for a guard. Tunks is too turnover prone. Stalzer/Talton are too young and inconsistent.

Therefore, XJ is surrounded by more talented starters than Roberson, but he can't rely on getting easy putbacks, layups, fastbreak points as Dre did.

 

[slider]

XJ will be better all-around offensively, but he will never be the rebounder Roberson is. Roberson is a special talent in that regard

 

[Goose]

I concur, XJ is so much more aggressive and involved than Dre was his freshman year. If you put XJ on that team I think he would have much better numbers just from the amount of easy looks that Burks and Higgins would have gotten him.

Now that said, while XJ deserves praise for his rebounding, it just goes to show how special Dre is. He's a rebounding machine who will probably own every school record by the time he's done here. The fact that his DR% is 25.5% this year and it's considered "disappointing" says it all.

EDIT - and Slider said roughly the same thing and beat me to it.

 

[KingPants]

I don't really know what all those numbers mean. I do know that XJ is rapidly becoming the most complete offensive threat on this team. He also has a Dre-like knack for finding a rebound. I can't remember seeing a guy who has the hops this kid has. He makes it look effortless.

I've only watched the highlights of the cal game, but in every highlight (even all the made buckets) XJ has slid inside his guy and is in perfect position for a rebound.

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

While Dre is a better rebounder, XJ actually puts in a better effort to box out which will help the overall team rebounding because if he can't get the rebound, XJ will free up a guard or another player to rebound the balls he can't get to

 

[Gold]

Saw a lot of Dre-like anticipation from XJ in the Cal game. He's coming into his own AND learning from the nations top rebounder. Playing alongside Dre is the best training a young athletic forward can get.

 

[Buffnik]

Honestly, I think Dre's offensive numbers are slightly inflated. He was playing on a team with five other guys that were putting up ORating numbers of 108 or higher. The other two rotation guys were Marcus Relphorde (who had an ORating of 103) and Shannon Sharpe (97.3). That took a LOT of pressure off of Dre on the offensive side. Meanwhile X is playing with only two guys that have ratings above 108 (The Mayor & Jelly) and only two other guys who are above 100 (Chen & Dre).

I'm not saying what Dre did his frosh year wasn't more impressive, I'm just saying that if you put XJ onto that team, his numbers would be slightly better than the one's he's put up so far.

This is a key point. Dre was not asked to create his own offense as a freshman the way that XJ is.

As similar as they are in many ways, Dre's strength is as an elite glue guy who gives defense, rebounding and extra possessions as his core strengths. Then, he'll shoot a high % from deep while breaking down a defense for you every now and then.

XJ is a scorer who is too quick for most 4s to handle and too strong for most 3s to handle. He's a matchup nightmare when he's on offense. He's secondarily a glue guy.

Because they're different enough, they complement each other. When they're both on their games, it's an impossible cover for other defenses. A team may have one guy who can handle a combo forward like Dre or XJ, but there really aren't teams out there who have 2 guys who can deal with them.

 

[Goose]

This is a key point. Dre was not asked to create his own offense as a freshman the way that XJ is.

As similar as they are in many ways, Dre's strength is as an elite glue guy who gives defense, rebounding and extra possessions as his core strengths. Then, he'll shoot a high % from deep while breaking down a defense for you every now and then.

XJ is a scorer who is too quick for most 4s to handle and too strong for most 3s to handle. He's a matchup nightmare when he's on offense. He's secondarily a glue guy.

Because they're different enough, they complement each other. When they're both on their games, it's an impossible cover for other defenses. A team may have one guy who can handle a combo forward like Dre or XJ, but there really aren't teams out there who have 2 guys who can deal with them.

And when you add in guys like Fletcher and Thomas next year who fit roughly the same mold, it gets even more exciting...

 

[absinthe]

And when you add in guys like Fletcher and Thomas next year who fit roughly the same mold, it gets even more exciting...

If Thomas can continue to shoot the three ball as well as he has in HS it could be really interesting.

 

[Hoops Fan]

If Thomas can continue to shoot the three ball as well as he has in HS it could be really interesting.

Don.t forget the two red shirts ... especially when it comes to shooting, the kid from Detroit (sorry I am a little stuck on names right now ... senior moment). I think that Roberson will stay another year and with the talent on the team, they might just red shirt Thomas.