The last RB commit BSU picked up was from Jack Fields, a 3* Texas RB who is fairly well-regarded. In fact, Scout has Fields as the #37 RB in the country, 3 spots behind Payne. Payne seems to generally be more well-regarded, including by Boise fans, but the difference doesn't seem to be big enough that they would turn down a commitment from another solid RB prospect. With two smaller, quicker RB commits already in the fold, it's not that hard to see a scenario where Payne gets squeezed out, despite being their #1 target. It's not like they just filled up with 2* players that no one else had any interest in. I would equate the scenario to the CU QB situation. If CU had Miles as their #1 target (and I don't think that was the case) and Dillon as #2, I don't see any way they would've turned down a Dillon commitment in the hope that Miles chose them.