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2012-13 Bubble Watch

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
As of January 25, Joe Lunardi projects the following based on his "S-Curve" of the Top 100 teams:

Top 4 Seeds:
1. KANSAS (Big 12/1)
2. Michigan (Big Ten/2)
3. SYRACUSE (Big East/1)
4. Indiana (Big Ten/2)

Seeds 2-5:
5. Duke (ACC/1)
6. Arizona (Pac-12/1)
7. FLORIDA (SEC/1)
8. Louisville (Big East/2)
9. GONZAGA (WCC/1)
10. MIAMI (ACC/2)
11. Butler (A-10/1)
12. MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten/3)
13. Ohio State (Big Ten/4)
14. NEW MEXICO (MWC/1)
15. Minnesota (Big Ten/5)
16. OREGON (Pac-12/2)
17. Cincinnati (Big East/3)
18. North Carolina State (ACC/3)
19. WICHITA STATE (MVC/1)
20. Ucla (Pac-12/3)

Seeds 6-9:
21. Kansas State (Big 12/2)
22. VCU (A-10/2)
23. Creighton (MVC-2/2)
24. Unlv (MWC-2/2)
25. Missouri (SEC/2)
26. San Diego State (MWC-3/3)
27. Marquette (Big East/4)
28. Ole Miss (SEC/3)
29. Baylor (Big 12/3)
30. Notre Dame (Big East/5)
31. Wisconsin (Big Ten/6)
32. North Carolina (ACC/4)
33. Pittsburgh (Big East/6)
34. Georgetown (Big East/7)
35. Oklahoma (Big 12/4)
36. Illinois (Big Ten/7)

Seeds 10-12:
37. Oklahoma State (Big 12/5)
38. Colorado (Pac-12/4)
39. Colorado State (MWC/4)
40. Boise State (MWC/5)
41. Temple (A-10/3)
42. Kentucky (SEC/4)
43. Maryland (ACC/5)
44. BELMONT (OVC/1)
45. Memphis (C-USA/1)
46. Wyoming (MWC/6)
47. Saint Mary's (WCC/2)
48. Iowa State (Big 12/6)

Bubble & Bubble Bursts (ALL CAPS are projected conference champions, others are NIT projected):
49. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Sun Belt)
50. La Salle (Atlantic 10/4)
51. Alabama (SEC/5)
52. SOUTHERN MISS (C-USA/2)
53. Brigham Young (WCC/3)
54. Iowa (Big Ten/8)
55. Washington (Pac-12/5)
56. Villanova (Big East/8)
57. St. John's (Big East/9)
58. Arizona State (Pac-12/6)
59. Indiana State (MVC/3)
60. Florida State (ACC/6)
61. Rutgers (Big East/10)
62. Saint Louis (A-10/5)
63. LEHIGH (Patriot/1)
64. Charlotte (A-10/6)
65. Xavier (A-10/7)
66. Bucknell (Patriot/2)
67. AKRON (MAC/1)
68. Texas A&M (SEC/6)
69. Arkansas (SEC/7)
70. Virginia (ACC/7)
71. Northwestern (Big Ten/9)
72. California (Pac-12/8)
73. North Dakota State (Summit/1)
74. S.F. AUSTIN (Southland)

Likely NIT (all caps are auto-qualifiers for NCAA):
75. Stanford (Pac-12/8)
76. Utep (C-USA/3)
77. Dayton (Atlantic 10/8)
78. LOUISIANA TECH (WAC/1)
79. Santa Clara (WCC/4)
80. South Dakota State (Summit/2)
81. Ohio (MAC/2)
82. New Mexico State (WAC/2)
83. Richmond (A-10/9)
84. Denver (WAC/3)
85. Saint Joseph's (A-10/10)
86. HARVARD (Ivy)
87. VALPARAISO (Horizon)
88. Eastern Kentucky (OVC/2)

Other, Lowest-Ranked Auto-Qualifiers:
89. DAVIDSON (Southern)
90. STONY BROOK (America East)
91. NORTHEASTERN (Colonial)
92. BRYANT (Northeast)
93. NIAGARA (MAAC/2)
94. LONG BEACH STATE (Big West)
95. MONTANA (Big Sky)
96. WESTERN ILLINOIS (Summit/3)
97. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (Big South)
98. SOUTHERN (SWAC)
99. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
100. STETSON (Atlantic Sun)

For this thread, we'll focus in the beginning on anyone outside the Top 20. Top 20 are pretty much locks, but a lot can happen with the rest.
 
Hmm what do you know, Kentucky is there already :rolling_eyes:

Pittsburgh at Louisville is the one to keep an eye on tonight.
 
(# is Lunardi S-Curve rank entering current week)

Monday, January 25, Bubble games of interest:
#33 Pittsburgh @ #8 Louisville
South Florida @ #27 Marquette

Tuesday, 1/26:
#31 Wisconsin @ #13 Ohio State
#18 NC State @ #70 Virginia
#59 Indiana State @ #19 Wichita State
#42 Kentucky @ #28 Ole Miss
#32 North Carolina @ Boston College
Nevada @ #24 UNLV
 
Buffnik said:
(# is Lunardi S-Curve rank entering current week)

Monday, January 25, Bubble games of interest:
#33 Pittsburgh @ #8 Louisville
South Florida @ #27 Marquette

Tuesday, 1/26:
#31 Wisconsin @ #13 Ohio State
#18 NC State @ #70 Virginia
#59 Indiana State @ #19 Wichita State
#42 Kentucky @ #28 Ole Miss
#32 North Carolina @ Boston College
Nevada @ #24 UNLV
Click to expand...

Kentucky needs solid wins badly. Only decent win is Maryland.

North Carolina has hit a stretch of 3 very winnable games against bottom ACC teams. They need to get to 16-6 (6-3) before hitting @ Miami, @ Duke

Virginia is also in need of solid wins. They've won @ Wisconsin and have beaten North Carolina, but early losses to Delaware and Old Dominion have just killed their RPI. They're young, talented and playing good basketball lately, but it's an awful lot to ask to recover from horrendous losses of that magnitude despite being 14-5 (4-2). A win over NCSU would be a huge boost
 
Big Al on the Fan just said "It looks like my Colorado Buffs are going to have to win the Pac 12 tournament get in. WTF Al?
 
being above the projected 9 seed is always dicey for a power conference team. i think we play our way into about the 8-9 area. maybe better. maybe. as many years as i've bitched about our OOC and rpi scheduling....that ought to help us this year. props to the AD on that one. i think our rpi ends up in the mid 30's.

if we are above .500 in conference, ought to be OK for the dance. key is to not give the "committee" a reason to leave you out. like losses to rpi 300 teams, 1-8 against rpi top 50, etc.
 
Last edited:
Mick Ronson said:
being above the projected 9 seed is always dicey for a power conference team. i think we play our way into about the 8-9 area. maybe better. maybe.
Click to expand...

I think the 8 or 9 winner plays the one seed. Really want to move up or down.
 
anyway, in my lifelong follow of Big 8 teams...i think ISU plays it's way above Oklahoma and maybe OSU. fwiw.
 
Let's beat Oregon who is totally overrated and Arizona at home, then a couple wins in the PAC12 Tourney and we are sitting pretty.
 
Mick Ronson said:
no one wants the 8-9 game....but i'll take the NCAA right now, no questions asked. so...hey?
Click to expand...

Nice win for Iowa State over Kansas State this past weekend, that was a huge win for them.

I agree that Okie Lite is vulnerable to not make it. Everyone got really high on them after they thumped NCSU early in the season, but since then they've looked pretty vulnerable including getting killed at Virginia Tech. That's their worst loss, but they haven't beaten anyone remotely good since NCSU, either. Best wins aside from that are Tennessee (10-8) West Virginia who is below .500 (9-10). Okie Lite faces Iowa State at home on Wednesday. Huge game for both teams.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Kentucky needs solid wins badly. Only decent win is Maryland.

North Carolina has hit a stretch of 3 very winnable games against bottom ACC teams. They need to get to 16-6 (6-3) before hitting @ Miami, @ Duke

Virginia is also in need of solid wins. They've won @ Wisconsin and have beaten North Carolina, but early losses to Delaware and Old Dominion have just killed their RPI. They're young, talented and playing good basketball lately, but it's an awful lot to ask to recover from horrendous losses of that magnitude despite being 14-5 (4-2). A win over NCSU would be a huge boost
Click to expand...

I think UVA beats NCState on Tuesday. The Pack has only played 4 true road games and they're fragile on the road, only 1-3 so far. Then they'll turn around and beat Miami on Saturday.
 
Last edited:
CVilleBuff said:
Nice win for Iowa State over Kansas State this past weekend, that was a huge win for them.

I agree that Okie Lite is vulnerable to not make it. Everyone got really high on them after they thumped NCSU early in the season, but since then they've looked pretty vulnerable including getting killed at Virginia Tech. That's their worst loss, but they haven't beaten anyone remotely good since NCSU, either. Best wins aside from that are Tennessee (10-8) West Virginia who is below .500 (9-10). Okie Lite faces Iowa State at home on Wednesday. Huge game for both teams.
Click to expand...

hilton is a tough gym. very underrated. the ketchup and mustard men always seem to beat someone good. Jonny Orr was a great coach. i think Okie State is a legit NCAA team maybe....it's OU i think is iffy.
 
sockdolager said:
Big Al on the Fan just said "It looks like my Colorado Buffs are going to have to win the Pac 12 tournament get in. WTF Al?
Click to expand...

Al doesn't know much about anything outside of DLine. Definitely not college basketball.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I think UVA beats NCState on Tuesday. The Pack has only played 4 true road games and they're fragile on the road, only 1-3 so far. Then they'll turn around and beat Miami on Saturday.
Click to expand...

I'll be at UVA/NCSU tomorrow night. It's a big, big opportunity for UVA. They win that, and perhaps they can be discussed as a bubble team with a little more legitimacy because their RPI is just too low at the moment. Their young talent has been clicking lately, and if they play like they have been they have a decent shot. I think NCSU's chances are a little better than 50% though.
 
rosstr said:
Al doesn't know much about anything outside of DLine. Definitely not college basketball.
Click to expand...

I hope it's just about that and not more downplaying the hoops program because they don't want to recognize any success Bohn can claim.
 
Buffnik said:
I hope it's just about that and not more downplaying the hoops program because they don't want to recognize any success Bohn can claim.
Click to expand...

Even Big Al has to be proud of the basketball programs despite Bohn, so I think he is just misinformed

He did refer to them as his Colorado Buffaloes
 
rosstr said:
Al doesn't know much about anything outside of DLine. Definitely not college basketball.
Click to expand...

I'm a pretty big fan of Big Al but I really don't put much stock into any of his opinions outside of football. He's always entertaining but I doubt he watched a single Buffs basketball game live prior to the Broncos getting bounced.
 
One team to keep an especially close eye on is Illinois. You may recall they started the season looking very impressive starting 12-0 with impressive wins over Butler and Gonzaga. They were top 10 and people were buzzing about them.

Well they now sit at 15-6 (2-5) tied for 9th in the B1G. And, it gets even worse for Illinois as they face @ Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, @ Minnesota their next four games. It's conceivable they could lose 3 or even all 4 of those. They're in deep **** all of a sudden because even after that brutal stretch, they still have @ Michigan and @ Ohio State.

They've certainly got some quality wins, but you can only slide so far under .500 in your conference before it's simply too much. We knew the B1G was going to eat some teams alive this year, and Illinois is on the edge of becoming one of its most notable victims if they can't stop their slide soon.
 
NYbuffDIEHARD said:
Let's beat Oregon who is totally overrated and Arizona at home, then a couple wins in the PAC12 Tourney and we are sitting pretty.
Click to expand...

Beat quack and zona and win the ones that we have no business losing (Utah and Ore St) and it would be a bigger travesty to be left out then two years ago.
 
Marquette got the home win over South Florida, 63-50. It would take a major collapse for Marquette to not be safe on Selection Sunday, as they're now 15-4 (6-1) and tied for 1st in the Big East. Still, the Big East is rough and you never know when a team might suddenly slide and drop 3 or 4 in a row.
 
WasianCU said:
I'm a pretty big fan of Big Al but I really don't put much stock into any of his opinions outside of football. He's always entertaining but I doubt he watched a single Buffs basketball game live prior to the Broncos getting bounced.
Click to expand...

Al has proven to be more dedicated to his friends than CU. That's his track record. Period.
 
Al just straight doesn't know what he's talking about, because anyone saying CU has no chance except to win the Pac-12 tournament is simply clueless. This isn't remotely comparable to last year. We're 20th in the RPI. Last year we were around 80th at this point. Completely different situations, and finally we're in position for our OOC to be beneficial to us come March. If you want to see what our OOC's used to be like in past years, take a look at ASU, and watch what happens to them if they do well enough in the Pac-12 to even remain in the discussion.
 
torerobuff said:
Beat quack and zona and win the ones that we have no business losing (Utah and Ore St) and it would be a bigger travesty to be left out then two years ago.
Click to expand...

If we take care of business at home and pick up a couple of more road wins then this team won't get left out with our high RPI.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Nice win for Iowa State over Kansas State this past weekend, that was a huge win for them.

I agree that Okie Lite is vulnerable to not make it. Everyone got really high on them after they thumped NCSU early in the season, but since then they've looked pretty vulnerable including getting killed at Virginia Tech. That's their worst loss, but they haven't beaten anyone remotely good since NCSU, either. Best wins aside from that are Tennessee (10-8) West Virginia who is below .500 (9-10). Okie Lite faces Iowa State at home on Wednesday. Huge game for both teams.
Click to expand...


OK State hasn't won a road game in like 3 years.
 
I was at Hilton on Saturday, great game by ISU. That ISU team is has a similar squad to the buffs in a lot of ways. The B12 leading rebounder plays for ISU and he's just 6-6. It was good to be in a college gym for the first time in a long time....just wish it was the Keg.
 
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