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2012-13 Bubble Watch

Buffnik said:
Saint Mary's survived on the road at San Francisco. They're not as good as usual this year, but I expect them to make the tourney.
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The cheapest GA tickets were $40. I live about 200 yards from USF's stadium and thought about going to the game. $40?!?! WTF?
 
Back at ya, Nik. Here's some rpi's and sos's of teams you mentioned tonight, plus a few more

(Buffs........................ rpi 18 sos 7)
Kansas............................ 2 sos 6
Arizona............................4 sos 3
Oregon.......................... 20 sos 80
csewe............................21 sos 53
Oklahoma........................23 sos 12
La Salle..........................24 sos 37
Cincinnati....................... 26 sos 23
Missouri..........................27 sos 50
UConn............................28 sos 10
fucla..............................30 sos 19
Baylor............................32 sos 24
Iowa State.................... 42 sos 78
Oklahoma State.............. 46 sos 65
Notre Dame.................... 48 sos 75
St. John's...................... 52 sos 28
Villanova........................ 53 sos 30
UMass........................... 54 sos 74
Wyoming........................57 sos 105
Rutgers..........................59 sos 42
AzState..........................60 sos 102
St Mary's........................63 sos 154
Maryland........................ 64 sos 93
Florida State................... 69 sos 24
Northwestern.................. 87 sos 40
Murray State..............,,,..95 sos 220
Dayton........................ 109 sos 106
LSU......................,,.... 144 sos 144
DePaul....................,,.. 182 sos 165
 
Most of the relevant games for Thursday night are Pac-12 games.

Biggest game of interest is Illinois @ Michigan State (5pm ESPN). Illini have looked bad recently and are only 2-5 in B1G play after killing it in the non-conference. They just might be repeating last season's late season collapse that kept them out of the tourney. They're 15-6 and are facing a 4-game stretch that could all be losses.

The other one to watch is Butler (17-3) @ Saint Louis (14-5). If you get CBSS, the game's on at 7pm MT.
 
Buffnik said:
Most of the relevant games for Thursday night are Pac-12 games.

Biggest game of interest is Illinois @ Michigan State (5pm ESPN). Illini have looked bad recently and are only 2-5 in B1G play after killing it in the non-conference. They just might be repeating last season's late season collapse that kept them out of the tourney. They're 15-6 and are facing a 4-game stretch that could all be losses.

The other one to watch is Butler (17-3) @ Saint Louis (14-5). If you get CBSS, the game's on at 7pm MT.
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Illinois is suddenly on the brink of serious trouble. 2-5 in the B1G, and their next 4 games are, get this: @ Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, @ Minnesota. Very possible that Illinois will be 16-9 (3-8) by the time those games are done. Their RPI is still a healthy 31 for the time being, and they've got OOC wins over Butler and Gonzaga up their sleeve, along with a victory over Ohio State. Still, you can only slide so far under .500 in your conference before things get extremely dicey. The B1G is undoubtedly the best conference this year. Could this be a case like the old ACC (before VT and BC watered it down), where FSU got into the Big Dance one year with a 6-10 conference record?

Love watching Butler. That Butler/Gonzaga game was the best game I've watched all season. Butler is what college basketball is all about. I pray Brad Stevens stays at Butler for the long term. Definitely a huge game for Saint Louis sitting at 14-5 (3-2). RPI is 66th...and only have one decent win (New Mexico). This is essentially make or break for them getting Butler at home.


I'll throw Iowa on here for the hell of it. The Hawkeyes 13-7 (2-5) host Penn State 8-12 (0-8). Iowa is a complete longshot at this point. They have wins over Wisconsin and Iowa State, but their RPI is only 81st. Still, a win tomorrow would bring them to 14-7 (3-5) and in such a strong B1G, the opportunity to quickly get some huge RPI boosting victories is there.
 
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I think Uconn is actually banned from the postseason this year due to their ARP score. Thanks for all of the updates on the bubble watch and rpi though, that's the main reason why I registered for the site.
 
nolabuff said:
I think Uconn is actually banned from the postseason this year due to their ARP score. Thanks for all of the updates on the bubble watch and rpi though, that's the main reason why I registered for the site.
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Yup. UCONN is ineligible for the dance this year.

Buffnik said:
In case anyone missed the KSU-UT score, it was ugly. 83-57 Wildcats. KSU looks like a tourney lock. UT falls to 9-11 (1-6). I'm starting to wonder if Barnes makes it through the season before being fired.
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I know he's had some decent results, but Barnes should have been fired for the way he handled Kevin Durant while he was there. I still remember watching the tourney game they lost to USC that year and being mystified that they would go 3-4 possessions in a row without Durant even touching the ball. Because I guess when you have the Big XII Player of the Year and the #2 pick in the draft, you'd rather have the ball go to DJ Augustine.
 
nolabuff said:
I think Uconn is actually banned from the postseason this year due to their ARP score. Thanks for all of the updates on the bubble watch and rpi though, that's the main reason why I registered for the site.
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Thanks. Should have remembered that, considering I was just reading an article on Oriakhi at Mizzou (bounced from UConn due to the APR situation).
 
Because of the UConn situation, we should be pulling hard for them every time they play a Big East bubble team. It's all upside for us and they're capable of causing enough damage to make the Big East only a 7-bid league this year.
 
Keep an eye on #16 Ole Miss. Despite the great record, their RPI is only #40. That loss to Kentucky was especially damaging because they had 2 major injuries. Senior guard Nick Williams is out indefinitely with a ligament issue in his foot (9.4 ppg) and soph forward Aaron Jones (3.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg) is gone for the season with an ACL tear - he was their main big off the bench. Maybe the weak SEC will allow them to keep winning, but they could also go into freefall. With only the nation's #120 schedule, a mediocre RPI and few opportunities for quality wins left on the schedule, this is a team that could very well miss the Dance.
 
Buffnik said:
Keep an eye on #16 Ole Miss. Despite the great record, their RPI is only #40. That loss to Kentucky was especially damaging because they had 2 major injuries. Senior guard Nick Williams is out indefinitely with a ligament issue in his foot (9.4 ppg) and soph forward Aaron Jones (3.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg) is gone for the season with an ACL tear - he was their main big off the bench. Maybe the weak SEC will allow them to keep winning, but they could also go into freefall. With only the nation's #120 schedule, a mediocre RPI and few opportunities for quality wins left on the schedule, this is a team that could very well miss the Dance.
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Ole Miss will be dropping games. Next one is @ Florida, and they have @ Mizzou looming as well. They have one decent win: Mizzou at home. It gets very shaky after that -- Arkansas and Rutgers are their next best. They have no remaining opportunities for big home wins, every decent team they play that offers a real resume boosting win is on the road.
 
Buffnik said:
Because of the UConn situation, we should be pulling hard for them every time they play a Big East bubble team. It's all upside for us and they're capable of causing enough damage to make the Big East only a 7-bid league this year.
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Very well could only be 7: Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pittsburgh.

St. John's and Villanova are iffy.

UConn visits St. John's on Feb. 6th, hosts Villanova on Feb. 16th.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Very well could only be 7: Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pittsburgh.

St. John's and Villanova are iffy.

UConn visits St. John's on Feb. 6th, hosts Villanova on Feb. 16th.
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Pitt's resume is terrible. They blew out a schizo Georgetown team, and their next best win is a 5 point loss to Michigan.
 
torerobuff said:
Pitt's resume is terrible. They blew out a schizo Georgetown team, and their next best win is a 5 point loss to Michigan.
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You're right that Pitt's RPI is pretty weak (50th). Still, they have wins over Georgetown, Villanova and UConn (banned from postseason play, they're still decent) along with no bad losses. At 17-5, they're in decent shape assuming they piece together a couple more "pretty good" wins, of which the Big East offers ample opportunity to do so. They're ahead of Villanova and St. John's in the pecking order right now, and I have a very hard time imagining the Big East getting less than 7. It's more likely to be 8 than 6, IMO.
 
Buffnik said:
Keep an eye on #16 Ole Miss. Despite the great record, their RPI is only #40. That loss to Kentucky was especially damaging because they had 2 major injuries. Senior guard Nick Williams is out indefinitely with a ligament issue in his foot (9.4 ppg) and soph forward Aaron Jones (3.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg) is gone for the season with an ACL tear - he was their main big off the bench. Maybe the weak SEC will allow them to keep winning, but they could also go into freefall. With only the nation's #120 schedule, a mediocre RPI and few opportunities for quality wins left on the schedule, this is a team that could very well miss the Dance.
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Yeah, but I'm excited to hear what Marshall Henderson might do in the NCAA Tournament (link contains possibly the greatest GIF in college basketball this season).
 
CVilleBuff said:
:lol: dude is out of control. Would certainly add some flavor to the Dance
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I'd HATE him if he were a Buff or if I had to deal with him at all on any basis, but man do I love him when he's on the other side of the country doing no harm to my team.
 
Goose said:
I'd HATE him if he were a Buff or if I had to deal with him at all on any basis, but man do I love him when he's on the other side of the country doing no harm to my team.
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The venom we'd be spewing if that little ****er played for Oregon...:lol: (Or in some different time warp where he stayed at Utah, and Utah was somehow decent enough that I didn't actually feel slightly sorry for them)
 
Michigan State stormed out of the locker room with a 16-3 run and is now up 43-40 with just under 15 minutes left.
 
Sparty gets the win 80-75.

Illini in trouble. MSU looks like a team no one wants to play.
 
St. Louis destroyed Butler. They're going to make a huge jump from #62.
 
Buffnik said:
St. Louis destroyed Butler. They're going to make a huge jump from #62.
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This was make or break for the Bilikens. Absolutely huge win. They're in the hunt now at 15-5 (4-2). St. Louis plays Dayton next -- would be great for us if the Flyers could get the win.
 
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Arizona took out Washington in Seattle.

It looks like the Huskies are done. It also looks like Zona is in pretty good shape for a 2-seed. (They can absorb the loss at CU. :wink2: )
 
Buffnik said:
Arizona took out Washington in Seattle.

It looks like the Huskies are done. It also looks like Zona is in pretty good shape for a 2-seed. (They can absorb the loss at CU. :wink2: )
Click to expand...

Looks like 5 regular season losses for Arizona at most. Wonder if the committee will take what happened in Tucson between Arizona and CU into account if they're on the line between say a 2 and 3 seed.
 
Buffnik said:
Sparty gets the win 80-75.

Illini in trouble. MSU looks like a team no one wants to play.
Click to expand...

Illini now sitting 10th in the B1G at 2-6. Wisconsin, Indiana, @ Minnesota their next 3. Still have @Michigan and @Ohio State after that.

That 14-0 run Michigan State went on to start the second half sums up the deep **** Illinois is in.
 
Alabama with the 59-56 win over Arkansas. Arkansas's slim hopes should be over. Bama is in ok position right now. They've got some opportunities coming up. Their next 8 are against the bottom feeders in the SEC. They can't afford to slip up, but if they run these teams they should then they'll probably be dancing.
 
Buffnik said:
Alabama with the 59-56 win over Arkansas. Arkansas's slim hopes should be over. Bama is in ok position right now. They've got some opportunities coming up. Their next 8 are against the bottom feeders in the SEC. They can't afford to slip up, but if they run these teams they should then they'll probably be dancing.
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Was just looking at that. Bama's RPI is still weak (mid 60s) but it's possible Bama goes 9-2 in their last 12 to finish the regular season. That would put them at 22-9 (14-4). I'm sure they'll end up ****ing up one or two of those winnables, though.
 
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