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2012-13 Bubble Watch

Buffnik said:
Tuesday doesn't look like much unless some major upsets happen.

Wake Forest is at North Carolina, which can't afford bad losses.
Villanova is at DePaul. Nova is barely in the bubble conversation and this would completely ruin any realistic chance for them.
Akron hosts Central Michigan. Akron should win the MAC, but they might be good enough to earn an at-large if they lose in the conf tourney.
Wichita State is at S Illinois. Shockers have been struggling lately and this would be a huge blow if they lost.
Florida State is at Georgia Tech. Seminoles have to start their run here or they can forget about the Dance.
Kentucky hosts South Carolina. If Kentucky drops this one, it would raise some serious questions.

Probably no upsets from the above, but you never know.

I'll just be watching #10 Ohio State at #3 Michigan. Great rivalry game between a couple excellent teams.
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Florida State could easily lose at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech has struggled, but they have decent young talent and it showed against Virginia this past Sunday. Also, Florida State just isn't very good. They're going to either lose at Georgia Tech or lose at Wake Forest in one of their next two games, and that will be all she wrote.
 
Arkansas took down Florida tonight. That has to put the Razorbacks on the bubble, too. Wow. :wow:

No other upsets but some scares in progress. Wichita State is trailing at S Illinois in the 2nd half. South Carolina playing Kentucky to a draw midway through the 1st half.
 
Buffnik said:
Arkansas took down Florida tonight. That has to put the Razorbacks on the bubble, too. Wow. :wow:

No other upsets but some scares in progress. Wichita State is trailing at S Illinois in the 2nd half. South Carolina playing Kentucky to a draw midway through the 1st half.
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Yep, had written off Pig Sooie but beating #2 will put them back on the fringe of contention.
 
Florida State wins at the buzzer, 56-54. Noles improve to 13-9 (5-4). Still not very good and not going anywhere, but we can keep them "alive" for now.
 
Wichita State lost at S Illinois. That's a bad one for them. They were really safe until recently and this one drops them to the bubble. Right side of the bubble, but still on it.
 
Buffnik said:
Wichita State lost at S Illinois. That's a bad one for them. They were really safe until recently and this one drops them to the bubble. Right side of the bubble, but still on it.
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Yikes, that makes our loss at Utah look "good" by comparison. Southern Illinois is last in the MVC, RPI of 210. Three straight losses for the Shockers. They aren't winning the conference, that's for sure, but RPI was still healthy heading into this one
 
For the Razorbacks, they've got worse home road splits than us. 0-7 on the road, One win outside of Fayetteville... in Little Rock against Alabama A&M.
 
torerobuff said:
For the Razorbacks, they've got worse home road splits than us. 0-7 on the road, One win outside of Fayetteville... in Little Rock against Alabama A&M.
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Win over Florida moved them from 89th to 75th in the RPI. They've got @Vanderbilt (8-12) and @Auburn (8-13) their next two games. Don't take care of business in those and they're toast.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Win over Florida moved them from 89th to 75th in the RPI. They've got @Vanderbilt (8-12) and @Auburn (8-13) their next two games. Don't take care of business in those and they're toast.
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The Florida win is very nice to hang their hat on, but they have to get some road wins against the dregs of the SEC for sure. Pat Forde said last night that the last 3 years of Mike Anderson coached teams (including his last year at Mizzou) are 53-9 at home and 14-35 for road/neutral. Oof.
 
St. John's defeats UConn to improve to 15-8 (7-4)

Cincinnati is in great shape still, but they did just lose at Providence. Bearcats fall to 18-5 (6-4)
 
Temple beat Charlotte, 89-88. Charlotte needed that one to get in the conversation. Temple's starting to position itself to make the Dance.

Michigan State won at home over Minnesota, 61-50. Hard to say that hurt Minnesota, but they're slumping a bit.

UMass won at home over a bad Rhode Island, 81-53. Starting to look like the A-10 might play its way into as many as 6 bids. 4 minimum.

St. John's won a home game over UConn, 71-65. Red Storm is starting to look good and Steve Lavin will get some sentiment from the committee this year.

Indiana State destroyed Creighton, 76-57. ISU moved closer to the bubble. But the MVC isn't looking great right now with both Creighton and Wichita State struggling. 2 bids max.

Cincinnati lost on the road to a bad but improving Providence, 54-50. Big East is hard to figure out this year.

Southern Miss lost at UCF, 60-58. That moves UCF toward the bubble and it also sets up that C-USA could be a 1-bid league if Memphis runs the table (they play USM this weekend).
 
Buffnik said:
Temple beat Charlotte, 89-88. Charlotte needed that one to get in the conversation. Temple's starting to position itself to make the Dance.

Michigan State won at home over Minnesota, 61-50. Hard to say that hurt Minnesota, but they're slumping a bit.

UMass won at home over a bad Rhode Island, 81-53. Starting to look like the A-10 might play its way into as many as 6 bids. 4 minimum.

St. John's won a home game over UConn, 71-65. Red Storm is starting to look good and Steve Lavin will get some sentiment from the committee this year.

Indiana State destroyed Creighton, 76-57. ISU moved closer to the bubble. But the MVC isn't looking great right now with both Creighton and Wichita State struggling. 2 bids max.

Cincinnati lost on the road to a bad but improving Providence, 54-50. Big East is hard to figure out this year.

Southern Miss lost at UCF, 60-58. That moves UCF toward the bubble and it also sets up that C-USA could be a 1-bid league if Memphis runs the table (they play USM this weekend).
Click to expand...

Gophers are slumping, but RPI was 10th entering this game, so still in fantastic shape.
 
Baylor pissed it away in OT at Okie Lite 67-69 (OSU scored final 5). Probably good for our seeding if we make the tourney. Not good for our resume, though. On balance, probably a bad result for us.
 
Horrible loss for Alabama at Auburn tonight, 37-49. (Yes, that's a final and not the halftime score.)
 
UNLV lost at Fresno State, 55-64. Helps our SOS and should significantly drop the Rebs from safety down to the bubble.
 
Stanford losing at Arizona will actually improve their RPI, but the loss keeps their record very NIT-ish at 14-9, 5-5. Especially since the Cardinal didn't beat anyone of note in the non-conference.
 
Wisconsin fends off Iowa in 2OT in Madison. Effectively ends Iowa's faint hopes and keeps Wisconsin from falling into extreme danger (although they aren't guaranteed anything)
 
Wisconsin got the double OT win over Iowa in Madison. Badgers now 7-3 in the B1G. Barring a monumental collapse (and they're too well-coached for that to happen), they're in the Dance.

Iowa, on the other hand, fell to 14-9, 3-7. They don't really have great wins either. Looks like NIT for the Hawkeyes this year.
 
Thursday night's bubble action: Of course, our Buffs are now in bubble territory as well.

Illinois hosts Indiana. Illini are 15-8 (2-7) and rapidly fading. Despite their horrendous conference record, their RPI is still healthy enough that if they can start winning, they can get in. Obviously nothing would stop the bleeding like beating the #1 team in the land.

Virginia hosts Clemson. Virginia's RPI is in the doldrums, but at 15-6 (5-3), the Hoos have a chance if they can get to 12-6 in the ACC.

Maryland visits Virginia Tech. Terps are 16-6 (4-5). This is a must win for them.

Arizona State hosts Cal. Sun Devils are 17-5 (6-3), but they need to keep piling up the wins because many of their W's are garbage.

BYU visits San Diego. BYU is 18-6 (8-2). They have no good wins, but no bad losses. Somehow, they're right on the edge of Lunardi's bracket.
 
Todd Furhrman (formerly of Caesars's, now with don's best) has an article today on Bubble teams. CU wasn't mentioned as a bubble team so I asked him where he had CU's odds to make the tourney.

Todd Fuhrman ‏@ToddFuhrman @jgisland if the season ended today I have them on the 11/12 line but losses to Utah don't exactly help their cause. I make them -240 IN
 
Indiana pulling away from Illinois in Champaign. 41-29 Hoosiers at halftime.

Virginia beating the **** out of Clemson in Charlottesville. 38-10 Hoos at halftime. Virginia doesn't have their best post player.
 
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