Not sure the Zags have many expectations this year.
They did win a decent conference though.
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2014 NCAA Auto-Bids & Bubble Busters
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Not sure the Zags have many expectations this year.
They did win a decent conference though.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Gonzaga was an early WCC tournament slip up away from being a bubble team. It almost happened as they only beat Santa Clara in the final seconds.
NYbuffDIEHARD
Active Member
Mark Few has a gazillion wins and a lot of good ones. But he is a terrible big game coach. Win the WCC all you want he won't win anything that matters though.
Completely agree, the regular season champ is certainly the more deserving team. It's unfair that a lousy team can get hot for 3 or 4 games and win their conference tourney and get a shot to play for the national championship while a more deserving conference champ or a bubble team gets left out. But as you implied they do it because these conference tournaments are fun for everyone and most importantly they make alot of money.
cubuffs85
Active Member
When Towson went like 2-24 some years ago in the regular season, the joke was they were 10 games away from winning the national championship, not exactly realistic but stupid nonetheless.
I'm starting to get worried that SF Austin could get an at-large bid if they don't win the Southland tourney. That gaudy 29-2 record has voters in both polls putting them in the Top 30. (Disregard the fact that they've beaten precisely no one and have an RPI around 70.)
And MSM isn't even a legit NEC tournament champion. In the quarterfinals, they were behind in the closing seconds, got a steal off their press, and scored to pull within 1... then won the game.
Unfortunately, they had 6 men on the court for that press and the refs didn't notice.
http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...won-nec-tournament-with-six-men-on-the-court/
aik
Well-Known Member
Now I'm rooting for MSM to go deep in the tournament so this can be their Fifth Down moment.
Of course American U won.
And with as much griping as I'm doing about the small conferences not sending their best teams this season, it's a stone cold lock that I'll fill out my bracket close to chalk and we'll end up seeing a record-setting tournament for major upsets. :lol:
cubuffs85
Active Member
I'm a sucker for the unpredictability of the tourney.
I hadn't been updating this thread because we haven't had any auto-bids earned the past couple days.
Today is going to be wild, though.
First, let's talk about the Bubble Busters:
Southern Miss got beat by LA Tech last night. USM has the #33 RPI and could get an auto-bid, making C-USA a 2-bid league. Based on the eyeball test, C-USA teams look to have the athletes this season. I'm thinking 2 bids. LA Tech could get to 28 wins and a Top 50 RPI with a win in the title game today.
Today's championship games:
Conference USA. Tulsa vs LA Tech. Winner gets the auto-bid. Loser goes to NIT. Southern Miss may get an at-large despite losing to LA Tech yesterday. In progress on CBS right now with the teams playing even halfway through the first half.
America East. Albany vs Stony Brook. Vermont had been the AE's best team, but their done. Stony Brook is probably 2nd best. In progress on ESPN and playing even in the latter part of the 1st half.
Southwest. Prairie View A&M (11-22 on the year) takes on Texas Southern (18-14) for the title. We saw TX Southern last year and know that they've got some weapons that could make them a good SWAC representative in the Dance. 2:30pm, ESPN2.
Pac-12. Arizona vs UCLA. UofA playing for a 1-seed and maybe overall #1. UCLA trying to get to the 5 or 4 line. Lots of bragging rights in this one. 4pm, FS1.
American. Louisville vs UConn. Louisville can lock up a 2-seed and maybe get a 1. UConn, like UCLA, trying to get to the 5 or 4 line. 4pm, ESPN.
Mountain West. San Diego State vs New Mexico. 2-bid league and these are the 2. SDSU trying to earn a 2-seed, UNM trying to stay on the 4 or 5 line. 4pm, CBSSN.
Mid-Eastern. NC Central (27-5) vs Morgan State (15-15). NC Central is right around RPI 100 and would be a good representative for the MEAC. 4pm, ESPNU.
Mid-American. Toledo vs. W Michigan. Bubble Buster game. Toledo is 27-5 with RPI 35. If W Michigan pulls the upset, the MAC could be a 2-bid league. 4:30pm, ESPN2.
Big Sky. North Dakota vs Weber State. Winner gets the bid. RPIs in the 150-200 range. I'd thought Montana was the best team in the conference, but it obviously won't be them in the Dance. 6pm, ESPNU.
Big East. Providence vs Creighton. Is the Big East a 3-bid or 4-bid league this year? Creighton and Villanova are in. Xavier and Providence are bubble teams. Providence can punch its ticket for sure with a win today. 6:30pm, FS1.
Southland. SF Austin (30-2) vs Sam Houston (23-9). SF Austin's RPI is only in the mid 50s, but the record is gaudy and they were getting votes in both polls coming into this week to be just outside the Top 25. Sam Houston is not horrible (RPI 115). Could the committee pull a surprise and make this a 2-bid in a year with a weak bubble if Sam Houston pulled the upset? 6:30pm, ESPN2.
Big 12. Baylor vs Iowa State. Baylor is looking at possibly the 6 line with a win and Iowa State is gunning for a 2-seed. Baylor recently beat ISU by double digits. Should be a good one. 7pm, ESPN.
Western Athletic. Idaho (16-17) vs New Mexico State (25-9). Please let it be NMSU and a worthy representative. NMSU is RPI 71 and would be a dangerous tourney team. Idaho, not so much. 8pm, ESPNU.
Big West. Cal Poly (12-19) vs CS Northridge (17-17). This was supposed to be UCSB vs UC Irvine in a matchup of quality opponents. Somehow, Cal Poly got hot and knocked them both off. May as well cheer for Cinderella since CSN is nothing great (RPI around 250). 8:30pm, ESPN2.
Today is going to be wild, though.
First, let's talk about the Bubble Busters:
Southern Miss got beat by LA Tech last night. USM has the #33 RPI and could get an auto-bid, making C-USA a 2-bid league. Based on the eyeball test, C-USA teams look to have the athletes this season. I'm thinking 2 bids. LA Tech could get to 28 wins and a Top 50 RPI with a win in the title game today.
Today's championship games:
Conference USA. Tulsa vs LA Tech. Winner gets the auto-bid. Loser goes to NIT. Southern Miss may get an at-large despite losing to LA Tech yesterday. In progress on CBS right now with the teams playing even halfway through the first half.
America East. Albany vs Stony Brook. Vermont had been the AE's best team, but their done. Stony Brook is probably 2nd best. In progress on ESPN and playing even in the latter part of the 1st half.
Southwest. Prairie View A&M (11-22 on the year) takes on Texas Southern (18-14) for the title. We saw TX Southern last year and know that they've got some weapons that could make them a good SWAC representative in the Dance. 2:30pm, ESPN2.
Pac-12. Arizona vs UCLA. UofA playing for a 1-seed and maybe overall #1. UCLA trying to get to the 5 or 4 line. Lots of bragging rights in this one. 4pm, FS1.
American. Louisville vs UConn. Louisville can lock up a 2-seed and maybe get a 1. UConn, like UCLA, trying to get to the 5 or 4 line. 4pm, ESPN.
Mountain West. San Diego State vs New Mexico. 2-bid league and these are the 2. SDSU trying to earn a 2-seed, UNM trying to stay on the 4 or 5 line. 4pm, CBSSN.
Mid-Eastern. NC Central (27-5) vs Morgan State (15-15). NC Central is right around RPI 100 and would be a good representative for the MEAC. 4pm, ESPNU.
Mid-American. Toledo vs. W Michigan. Bubble Buster game. Toledo is 27-5 with RPI 35. If W Michigan pulls the upset, the MAC could be a 2-bid league. 4:30pm, ESPN2.
Big Sky. North Dakota vs Weber State. Winner gets the bid. RPIs in the 150-200 range. I'd thought Montana was the best team in the conference, but it obviously won't be them in the Dance. 6pm, ESPNU.
Big East. Providence vs Creighton. Is the Big East a 3-bid or 4-bid league this year? Creighton and Villanova are in. Xavier and Providence are bubble teams. Providence can punch its ticket for sure with a win today. 6:30pm, FS1.
Southland. SF Austin (30-2) vs Sam Houston (23-9). SF Austin's RPI is only in the mid 50s, but the record is gaudy and they were getting votes in both polls coming into this week to be just outside the Top 25. Sam Houston is not horrible (RPI 115). Could the committee pull a surprise and make this a 2-bid in a year with a weak bubble if Sam Houston pulled the upset? 6:30pm, ESPN2.
Big 12. Baylor vs Iowa State. Baylor is looking at possibly the 6 line with a win and Iowa State is gunning for a 2-seed. Baylor recently beat ISU by double digits. Should be a good one. 7pm, ESPN.
Western Athletic. Idaho (16-17) vs New Mexico State (25-9). Please let it be NMSU and a worthy representative. NMSU is RPI 71 and would be a dangerous tourney team. Idaho, not so much. 8pm, ESPNU.
Big West. Cal Poly (12-19) vs CS Northridge (17-17). This was supposed to be UCSB vs UC Irvine in a matchup of quality opponents. Somehow, Cal Poly got hot and knocked them both off. May as well cheer for Cinderella since CSN is nothing great (RPI around 250). 8:30pm, ESPN2.
I'll also mention this here - They just pointed out on ESPN that there's only 3 potential bid stealers still alive in conference tournaments - UGA in the SEC, NCSU in the ACC, and St. Bonaventure in the A10. NCSU also has the possibility of getting in by beating Duke today but not winning the ACC tourney.
I think that Arizona, Florida and Wichita are all locked into 1-seeds at this point. You're probably right that Florida will be the #1 overall seed unless they lose today or tomorrow.
cubuffs85
Active Member
I'm not sure how much of a difference it will ultimately be who ends up getting the #1 overall, a somewhat decent chance these teams end up for the national title. I do think the field is wide open this year more than others, but gun to my head that would likely be my Finals matchup.
UofA is RPI #1 and Florida is #2. Cats have road wins at Michigan and San Diego State plus a win over Duke in the non-conference. Stronger resume that I think outweighs Florida having 1 fewer loss that can be explained by going undefeated in an SEC that is much weaker than the Pac-12.
cubuffs85
Active Member
You said they were playing for a #1 seed, I don't think they are. I think they're locked into no matter what happens, same with UF(as is Witchita). Only that fourth #1 seed is up for grabs.
I agree with you UofA deserves the #1 overall seed more, but that doesn't mean the committee will agree with us.
Who knows with the Committee? Could a 4-loss Arizona end up behind a 6-loss Wisconsin or Virginia or a 5-loss Louisville? Theoretically. I assume that despite the low probability of that happening, Miller will play the psychology and have his team thinking in terms of taking what they want versus backing into it and relying on the committee. I meant that intro more in terms of expecting both teams seeing a lot riding on this game and playing with intensity. (Both have had letdowns in the past couple weeks when they didn't have much of anything to play for and I don't see either treating the game that way today.)
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
More upsets. Really think these small conferences should reconsider how they give their auto bids.
cubuffs85
Active Member
I'd be pretty shocked if they were any worse than the #3 overall seed, I don't even think they should be be below the #2 overall seed. Any of those you means you listed I think are the last #1 seed regardless. If UofA had a loss to us, maybe they don't get a first seed.
I do agree with you that Sean Miller will have them playing hard.
Completely agree, and you have to wonder how much money these small-conference tournaments actually make because when you see the games the arena is not only small it's often not close to being full. Unless having their title games on one of the ESPN channels makes them that much money. :huh:
May be in Arizona's favor that there aren't many other teams in the western half of the country deserving of a #1 seed in a region. Since they have changed to move sub regionals outside the traditional regions it isn't as big a factor but the comittee may feel some pressure to have a #1 seed from the west if the decision is close.
Also Arizona is not a legendary program like a Duke, Kansas, UNC, etc but they have had enough success in recent years that they are a name program.
First factor of course should always be the record and the success against quality competition but when it gets close it's hard to believe that they don't factor the other stuff in.
Another thing that might be working in Arizona's favor is playing its conference tournament final on Saturday while Florida plays on Sunday.
Committee, with an Arizona win, could lock UofA into the #1 overall and Florida into the #2 overall. That way, regardless of whether Florida wins or loses on Sunday they wouldn't have to make any adjustments. Florida wouldn't have to be dropped off the 2 line with its #2 RPI if they fell to 31-3 by losing to Kentucky on a neutral floor. But if Florida had been penciled in as the #1 overall and lost, it would be very hard to justify keeping them there.
(Always assume people will do things in the way that would require the least work.)
Committee, with an Arizona win, could lock UofA into the #1 overall and Florida into the #2 overall. That way, regardless of whether Florida wins or loses on Sunday they wouldn't have to make any adjustments. Florida wouldn't have to be dropped off the 2 line with its #2 RPI if they fell to 31-3 by losing to Kentucky on a neutral floor. But if Florida had been penciled in as the #1 overall and lost, it would be very hard to justify keeping them there.
(Always assume people will do things in the way that would require the least work.)
cubuffs85
Active Member
I tend to agree here, I think the games on Sunday don't really matter as much as well. I think the committee pretty much goes to bed with the bracket a certain way and they'll have contingency plans incase an At-L qualifies or for example which way, they'll if UVA or Duke wins (who could potentially get the #1 seed there). But I think the hard work is done for the most part.
A lot probably depends on the TV money for the conference tourney. Also for some of these conferences the conference final is the only time they are going to be on national TV other than getting blown out in the first round of the NCAA tourney.
On the other hand the measure of success for some of these conferences is getting an upset in the dance. When their best team is knocked out in a conference tourney you have to wonder how much that chance is diminished.
As a Georgia State student, I'm all for changing the format. We were 17-1 in conference, now 18-1 after destroying Ark St today. But if we lose tomorrow against Western Kentucky or Lafayette, we would be out even though we beat both teams twice this year.
cubuffs85
Active Member
And I don't mean this in a demeaning way, but to Mtn's point, how many national TV games did you have?
I don't see the format changing, as much as I would like it to.