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2015 Advanced Stats Thread - Week 9 (trending better)

Darth Snow

Darth Snow

Hawaiian Buffalo
Club Member
Junta Member
Granted, that may be a reflection of our competition so far, but right now we are....
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
90th (up from 95 last week);

(Hawaii = 110, Umass = 111, CSU = 61, Nicholls = N/A, Oregon = 9, ASU = 20, Zona 39, OSU 85, UCLA 12, Stanford 15, USC 14, WSU 88, Utah 36).

Now, these don't tell the whole story, but still, wow, this is a drop from last year. The difference, I guess, is that we found a way to win a close game - which statistics will treat as nothing more than luck as we a return to the norm after last year's awful showing in close games. Either way, I think the take away so far is that this team really needs to improve its efficiency on offense in a big way, or we are in for a series of very rough outings. Because other than WSU and OSU, all the other teams (yes, even upset special pick Zona) are in a different class. We will be double digit dogs in every single game other than those two.
 
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I may be off base, but I don't put much weight into these kind of stats when mutual opponents across CFB is almost non-existent, particularly this early in the year.
 
Gary Indiana said:
I may be off base, but I don't put much weight into these kind of stats when mutual opponents across CFB is almost non-existent, particularly this early in the year.
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Absolutely an issue, but these stats generally do a better job compiling all the available info into a real ranking than anything else I know of.
 
Darth Snow said:
Absolutely an issue, but these stats generally do a better job compiling all the available info into a real ranking than anything else I know of.
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Yeah, that's why the SEC is always ranked so high: those style points earned against Middle Tennessee and SW LA TECH!
 
Darth Snow said:
Granted, that may be a reflection of our competition so far, but right now we are....

90th (up from 95 last week);

(Hawaii = 110, Umass = 111, CSU = 61, Nicholls = N/A, Oregon = 9, ASU = 20, Zona 39, OSU 85, UCLA 12, Stanford 15, USC 14, WSU 88, Utah 36).

Now, these don't tell the whole story, but still, wow, this is a drop from last year. The difference, I guess, is that we found a way to win a close game - which statistics will treat as nothing more than luck as we a return to the norm after last year's awful showing in close games. Either way, I think the take away so far is that this team really needs to improve its efficiency on offense in a big way, or we are in for a series of very rough outings. Because other than WSU and OSU, all the other teams (yes, even upset special pick Zona) are in a different class. We will be double digit dogs in every single game other than those two.
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Where did you pull the rankings from? If I saw the methodology, they might make a bit more sense.
 
Meh. Unless there is some evidence these stats have proven to be predictive in the past, I put little stock in them. College football teams are so different year-to-year rendering any attempt at longitudinal analysis pretty meaningless IMO.
 
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

How do you determine what's a good team versus a bad team so early in the season? It would seem that the advanced stats would become useful 8 or 9 weeks into the schedule and virtually useless toward the beginning of the season.
 
Creebuzz said:
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

How do you determine what's a good team versus a bad team so early in the season? It would seem that the advanced stats would become useful 8 or 9 weeks into the schedule and virtually useless toward the beginning of the season.
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I think your last sentence goes over the top, but yes, the stats get better as the year goes on.
 
Plenty of games to disprove their analysis. Stats don't always show the full picture, but let's not nitpick the outliers like arky and auburn. Trends are what matter.

We are near the bottom no matter how you spin it.
 
that hawaii loss hurts i am sure-- we looked totally inept in that game and we lost to a slightly less inept opponent. and, we looked utterly inept at times against csu.

we've earned the computer's disrespect. atone by beating some teams we aren't supposed to beat.
 
I do think it is too early to do those rankings...The comments about Auburn are a little misguided. They were playing against a pretty good LSU team...

Some teams have played weak competition whereas others have played a little tougher. Too early to tell.
 
BlackNGold said:
I do think it is too early to do those rankings...The comments about Auburn are a little misguided. They were playing against a pretty good LSU team...

Some teams have played weak competition whereas others have played a little tougher. Too early to tell.
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And what nobody did Ahhhbern just barely beat, at home, the week before?
 
It did say that "during the first four weeks preseason projections play less and less of a role in the formula." so at this point, the preseason projections for Mizzery, Auburn, Arkansas, (even Bama) etc. are likely floating them a bit.
 
Denver_sc said:
It did say that "during the first four weeks preseason projections play less and less of a role in the formula." so at this point, the preseason projections for Mizzery, Auburn, Arkansas, (even Bama) etc. are likely floating them a bit.
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I've seen Mizzou, Auburn and Arkansas play. They don't really need the pre-season rankings to help them float.
 
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