2015 Advanced Stats Thread - Week 9 (trending better)

[AllStarBuffs]

Our offense is worse than last year, how is that even possible? Only reason we are decent at D is because of Leavitt.

All I know is that come fall 2017, MM will not be the head-coach of CU football.

 

[Bufffan68]

Our offense is worse than last year, how is that even possible?

?????? We were a top 30 offense last year.

 

[Darth Snow]

Our offense is worse than last year, how is that even possible? Only reason we are decent at D is because of Leavitt.

All I know is that come fall 2017, MM will not be the head-coach of CU football.

1) new guards are not yet as good as the old guards (we miss munyer);
2) LT injuries
3) Sefo Injury.
4) SoS
5) lack of explosive plays.

 

[SJBuff]

From a W/L standpoint we are right where I thought we'd be by this point in the season so I've kept my optimism up that we still may get 6 or 7 wins. This data, though, does not bode well for my prediction for the season. We may get (best case) 1-2 more and that's it.

What is really frustrating to me is that last year we were clearly outmatch physically in several contests but we fought tenaciously and stayed close or almost won several games we should have been dismissed in, while this year we appear to have significantly closed the gap physically but just can't seem to click and execute.

Even though our record will be better, to me this team does not appear to be as competitive as last year's. We should be doing better than we are this year.

 

[Darth Snow]

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile
105 (dropped from 102 last week, continuing the downward trend we've seen since the Nicholls state game, where CU was last seen in the top 100).

(Hawaii = 109, Umass = 71, CSU = 94, Nicholls = N/A, Oregon =64, ASU = 37, Zona 70, OSU 85, UCLA 24, Stanford 10, USC 6, WSU 84, Utah 13).

Big movers since the last update are Umass (improved 40 spots), Oregon (dropped 50ish), Zona (dropped 30 spots - but how much of that was solomon being out?). ASU dropped 20 or so. UCLA dropped 12. Stanford, USC, and Utah all jumped up.

The offense continues to be nearly the worst in the nation at explosiveness, and it's not just cause we play pow at RB for most of the game. We've had bad turnover luck since week 5. Outside of explosiveness, offense has been terrible. Running game is still considered solid, but our passing game is one of the worst in the country. Incredible regression from last year.

Defensive issues center around our LBs, again. They just aren't creating plays. DL is average. DBs are creating a lot of plays.

All of this boils down to two things: our OL can't pass block, and Sefo isn't getting it done.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile
105 (dropped from 102 last week, continuing the downward trend we've seen since the Nicholls state game, where CU was last seen in the top 100).

(Hawaii = 109, Umass = 71, CSU = 94, Nicholls = N/A, Oregon =64, ASU = 37, Zona 70, OSU 85, UCLA 24, Stanford 10, USC 6, WSU 84, Utah 13).

Big movers since the last update are Umass (improved 40 spots), Oregon (dropped 50ish), Zona (dropped 30 spots - but how much of that was solomon being out?). ASU dropped 20 or so. UCLA dropped 12. Stanford, USC, and Utah all jumped up.

The offense continues to be nearly the worst in the nation at explosiveness, and it's not just cause we play pow at RB for most of the game. We've had bad turnover luck since week 5. Outside of explosiveness, offense has been terrible. Running game is still considered solid, but our passing game is one of the worst in the country. Incredible regression from last year.

Defensive issues center around our LBs, again. They just aren't creating plays. DL is average. DBs are creating a lot of plays.

All of this boils down to two things: our OL can't pass block, and Sefo isn't getting it done.

Is Sefo not getting it done because of pass blocking or is the pass blocking not working because sefo can't get it done. Is it just both?

LB play isn't a surprise with the injuries. They did a good job containing ASU's runners though.

 

[Darth Snow]

Is Sefo not getting it done because of pass blocking or is the pass blocking not working because sefo can't get it done. Is it just both?

LB play isn't a surprise with the injuries. They did a good job containing ASU's runners though.

I think it's more sefo not executing the basic plays with any consistency when he has the chance. He will hit on some things, but you can't run an offense when the QB isn't executing the bread and butter run pass option plays (and other plays that you use to build off of and read what the D is doing). IF the D doesn't need to counter your basic stuff, your O will bog down unless your team just wins every individual battle.

TL; DR - our QB is defeating our scheme.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

I think it's more sefo not executing the basic plays with any consistency when he has the chance. He will hit on some things, but you can't run an offense when the QB isn't executing the bread and butter run pass option plays (and other plays that you use to build off of and read what the D is doing). IF the D doesn't need to counter your basic stuff, your O will bog down unless your team just wins every individual battle.

TL; DR - our QB is defeating our scheme.

Probably pretty accurate. Which is weird because he played his best game of the year on Saturday from a stat perspective. I am hoping a lot of his issues this year have been the shoulder tear. We will see how that responds to being sacked 10 times this weekend.

 

[Darth Snow]

Probably pretty accurate. Which is weird because he played his best game of the year on Saturday from a stat perspective. I am hoping a lot of his issues this year have been the shoulder tear. We will see how that responds to being sacked 10 times this weekend.

CL34 has an interesting theory (I don't think any fan has watched more tape of this year than him) that Sefo's shoulder is something longstanding going back to last year that he tried to rehab, but that obviously hasn't worked. The one thing the tape shows is that Sefo CAN be accurate, but that you never know when he is going to be accurate. For Sefo's sake, I can't tell if I want the injury thing to be true or not. (If true, props to him, but are we risking his long term ability?... if not true, and he's just somehow lost his consistency... also bad).

Either way, Sefo's also missing reads in the running game. It's not just accuracy, it's decision making. yips.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

CL34 has an interesting theory (I don't think any fan has watched more tape of this year than him) that Sefo's shoulder is something longstanding going back to last year that he tried to rehab, but that obviously hasn't worked. The one thing the tape shows is that Sefo CAN be accurate, but that you never know when he is going to be accurate. For Sefo's sake, I can't tell if I want the injury thing to be true or not. (If true, props to him, but are we risking his long term ability?... if not true, and he's just somehow lost his consistency... also bad).

Either way, Sefo's also missing reads in the running game. It's not just accuracy, it's decision making. yips.

Yes. Sefo hears footsteps and he has no confidence either in his own execution or the execution of his teammates

 

[AllStarBuffs]

Yes. Sefo hears footsteps and he has no confidence either in his own execution or the execution of his teammates

I saw someone posted that Sefo plays in the context that something bad will happen every down, ultimately playing into and being on the side of Murphy's law more frequently than not

 

[Darth Snow]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

FEI now has us all the way up to #81 (just ahead of CSU...).
S&P still hates us, but a little less (99)
F+ likes us a little more (90).

coin flip this weekend at OSU (49% of victory) http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile
next best chance? WSU @ 21 %. After that, best chance is 12 % (Stanford) Talk about pressure for this week.
F+ opponent rankings:
(Hawaii = 114, Umass = 99, CSU = 82, Nicholls = N/A, Oregon = 56, ASU = 60, Zona 79, OSU 110, UCLA 37, Stanford 10, USC 15, WSU 55, Utah 7).

Bolded teams are teams that are reasonably close to us, within 25 or so. Record against comparable teams: 2-2. (added Zona, dropped WSU)

General Notes
Ugh: P5 teams "worse" than us:
Maryland, Purdue, Oregon State

Damn that Hawaii loss. Projected wins: 4.09.

Explosiveness is still terrible. Efficiency average to below average. Been slightly unlucky in turnovers.

Interesting Philip Lindsay tidbit: He's the best back (outside of D Lee) at getting his own yards. Full yard per carry more than Adkins. He also gets the hardest carries - the line is only doing its "job" and getting at least 5 yards for the runner on its own in roughly 1/3 of his carries.

Caveat: Patrick Carr's #s are very exciting, but it's a small sample size.

Powell appears to be a bit over maligned by us.

Fields will be missed, big time.

 

[Denver_sc]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

FEI now has us all the way up to #81 (just ahead of CSU...).
S&P still hates us, but a little less (99)
F+ likes us a little more (90).

coin flip this weekend at OSU (49% of victory) http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile
next best chance? WSU @ 21 %. After that, best chance is 12 % (Stanford) Talk about pressure for this week.
F+ opponent rankings:
(Hawaii = 114, Umass = 99, CSU = 82, Nicholls = N/A, Oregon = 56, ASU = 60, Zona 79, OSU 110, UCLA 37, Stanford 10, USC 15, WSU 55, Utah 7).

Bolded teams are teams that are reasonably close to us, within 25 or so. Record against comparable teams: 2-2. (added Zona, dropped WSU)

General Notes
Ugh: P5 teams "worse" than us:
Maryland, Purdue, Oregon State

Damn that Hawaii loss. Projected wins: 4.09.

Explosiveness is still terrible. Efficiency average to below average. Been slightly unlucky in turnovers.

Interesting Philip Lindsay tidbit: He's the best back (outside of D Lee) at getting his own yards. Full yard per carry more than Adkins. He also gets the hardest carries - the line is only doing its "job" and getting at least 5 yards for the runner on its own in roughly 1/3 of his carries.

Caveat: Patrick Carr's #s are very exciting, but it's a small sample size.

Powell appears to be a bit over maligned by us.

Fields will be missed, big time.

Goddamn. Everybody better like this post. Although the information in it is probably not stuff we want to hear for the most part, it's a great summary of a bunch of different stats/sites.

Incredible work, Snow.

 

[goalline]

Fields will be missed, big time.

Bobo had a decent AZ game. He was also wide open many times but not thrown to. I think he can fill in for Fields as a good target, even though he doesn't stretch the field quite as well.

 

[Darth Snow]

Bobo had a decent AZ game. He was also wide open many times but not thrown to. I think he can fill in for Fields as a good target, even though he doesn't stretch the field quite as well.

I almost threw in a comparison of the WR. I love Bobo, and have thought he was being under utilized, but this really jumped out at me:
Yards per target: 5.2
That is, by far, the worst # among the WR. It's also worse than both PL and Pow. His yards per catch are the same. However, I think he's suffering from being the favorite screen target, just like Fields suffered last year.

 

[patebuff]

I almost threw in a comparison of the WR. I love Bobo, and have thought he was being under utilized, but this really jumped out at me:
Yards per target: 5.2
That is, by far, the worst # among the WR. It's also worse than both PL and Pow. His yards per catch are the same. However, I think he's suffering from being the favorite screen target, just like Fields suffered last year.

I don't think we've gone down field to Bobo as well. All I remember is a few screens and 5 yard curls,